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MN Transplant

December 16/17 Winter Event

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17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

1.5 to 2 inches total precip throughout the area on the GFS. No lack of moisture for sure. 

And that's without  meso features once inside 36 hours:o

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26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1608184800-dE2r5pyN8ao.png

1608184800-qXGEHh0nGXo.png

I guarantee you places west of the fall line are getting WAY over 10-1 in that band. 

16 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It’s tiny but I’d think with rates we could at least fight off rain.

16F8C102-F410-4287-9B2B-8024C62D7EC7.png

If in a heavy band that’s likely very wet (very low ratio) bombs. It helps that the lift is crazy in the DGZ.  

31 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

I would enjoy a nice peaceful snow and I am rooting for it to occur , prior years I would be stressed over every model run.... but after this past Sept its just not the same.... lost a child..

I am so sorry. As a parent the crippling fear from just the thought of that is agonizing. There are no words. I truly hope you find some peace and get through your pain. 

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I also liked seeing GFS bump up QPF totals for the mountains and starting to clue in some upslope as the coastal pulls away.

The more I dig into the GFS and GEFS the more I like it. Those in trouble know it. There isn’t an Arctic airmass in place, it’s mid Dec, and the SST are scorched. SE of 95 is gonna be a struggle. But for everyone along and NW of 95 this run implies a lot of fun. Perfect placement of the surface mid and upper level features. fgen. Crazy lift in the dgz. Everyone except Ji would be satisfied imo. Even in the cities I think they do pretty good if...big if...this run is representative of the reality. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

heh. literally the opposite of the GEFS GIF I just posted. Fun times. 

It’s fine.  The GFS is a better model than the CMC, right?

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GGEM does keep ticking west but it’s also hauling ass. Has a really nice front end thump but that’s most of the show.

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16 minutes ago, bridgie04 said:

So very, very sorry for your loss and hope you and your family are doing as well as could ever be expected

Thank you for the kind words , much appreciated....it was unexpected & with the holidays its difficult to say the least..

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GFS is out on a limb having heaviest snowfall over us. Every other model now shows it NE PA to BOS. I'm taking a page from DTs playbook and tossing the GFS.

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19 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I think the heavy R/S line may end up being over D.C.

where D.C will get around 10'' or less than 3''.

My money is on the GFS. 

SNOWFALL.thumb.png.2097a752699f2aefc93b0b57060bd998.png

I’ll take that bet ;) . GFS will most likely play catch up the entire event. 

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8 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS is out on a limb having heaviest snowfall over us. Every other model now shows it NE PA to BOS. I'm taking a page from DTs playbook and tossing the GFS.

Keep us posted

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Seems fairly clear to me the OH valley low is no longer any issue. We’ve solved that riddle. What’s left is the precise surface low track. And it seems to me that all these seeming big changes are just due to subtle differences in where the surface low gets captured by the upper level energy and how offshore convection torques things. The convection is going to remain a wildcard. The upper level part may get nailed down a bit more, but these aren’t radical changes by any means for a ~72hr forecast. Of course it makes a huge difference in sensible wx outcome to most of us.

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

I think it’s pretty clear that 95 and metro areas will struggle with mixing and snow accumulating until about 00z, but it also looks clear that we all get destroyed by the CCB all the way to the bay. So 02z or so until about 8z should be pretty damn fun. 

I’m always untrusting I’d wrap around ccb. Feel like this is very easy for models to over do at range. We would need to explain why this either a) slows down and deepens quickly, or why ccb looks so good on just gfs. I wouldnt trust wrap around unless I see some meals closer to game time.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Keep us posted

To be fair, even with the GFS holding steady since that awful 18z run the trend for DC folks hasn't been great.  Simply put we need the GFS type deal where the surface low books a hard right turn allowing the ULL to swing under down by NC instead of over us.

If the GFS got some better support from the euro then it would make many feel better.  The 0z to 6z shift for the euro helps.  Will it keep going for the 12z?  YOU better hope so.

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25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

heh. literally the opposite of the GEFS GIF I just posted. Fun times. 

GFS will probably lose. It's just flattening out the wave too fast.    There is not a 2/5/10 confluence zone there to crush it.

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36 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS is out on a limb having heaviest snowfall over us. Every other model now shows it NE PA to BOS. I'm taking a page from DTs playbook and tossing the GFS.

what?  Wait... why?  The gfs shows the most snow.. why not embrace it?

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