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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Nice visualization from CoolWx for the GFS.  You have Omega (effectively upward motion), -12 and -18 °C contours to highlight the dendritic region, and the freezing line.

omega.thumb.png.f1a4ef617533fc8ee73dd8a6f2a92f7b.png

Hey MN-

Ideally, you want the purple and red line on this frame to be 850 to like 725, respectively, for optimal dendrite growth? 

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Here we go! Rooting for the SE / weaker / colder trend for those of you closer to the coast and I-95! Is an area wide banger in mid December likely? No. But we could sure as heck all use it! 
 

That baby ticked ever so slightly SE overnight into the morning. Still plenty of time for improvement!

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I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. 

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Just now, PivotPoint said:

Hey MN-

Ideally, you want the purple and red line on this frame to be 850 to like 725, respectively, for optimal dendrite growth? 

You don't want the purple line anywhere!  You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible.

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@WxUSAF @yoda
@MN Transplant
can you guys tell me what I’m missing down this way and why it’s not as aggressive? Do we get into a good deform band or does it never really materialize until you get north and east of here? I’m not meaning for imby question but I just want to understand the Synoptics a little bit better. 

I guess I’m just trying to figure out where the disconnect lies out my way and south of Staunton let’s say. Everything I’ve seen the 850’s never get above 0 and look to be -1/-2 all the way down the 81 corridor but the Euro and GFS aren’t as gung ho. I’m assuming we may miss the developing CCB but I also think the leaf on the nw side of things may end up looking better as simulated radars get in closer range. Does anyone have a concern of a dry slot since the decaying primary will be trying to push in toward us or will that be more of a concern for I77/west?

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. 

Agree.  I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one.  I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

Agree.  I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one.  I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.

Latitude and elevation are going to help, as always. @mappy and @psuhoffman are in ideal spots for the deform band as always. But yeah, there’s a risk for the 495 area that it translates farther NE and you get scraped but miss out on the nest. Let’s root for yesterday’s 12z euro scenario!

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Agree.  I don't see a lot of front-end love for the 95 corridor before it flips, but if we can get some deformation band help that will soften the blow of missing this one.  I'm personally always a bit worried that the band will set up in the more favorable (cough, MD) areas.

The MoCo-HoCo deathband is a real thing. ;)

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4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

You don't want the purple line anywhere!  You want the best upward motion (the black areas) in between the -12 and -18 contours as much as possible.

Oh lol, I thought the purple was -12 and the red -18. Haha, just looked purple is zero! Yea, I see now... I was so confused why it looked like a decent vertical field for upward motion between the two temp layers. But the bottom layer is actually zero degrees. Thanks

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@WxUSAF @yoda
@MN Transplant
can you guys tell me what I’m missing down this way and why it’s not as aggressive? Do we get into a good deform band or does it never really materialize until you get north and east of here? I’m not meaning for imby question but I just want to understand the Synoptics a little bit better. 

I guess I’m just trying to figure out where the disconnect lies out my way and south of Staunton let’s say. Everything I’ve seen the 850’s never get above 0 and look to be -1/-2 all the way down the 81 corridor but the Euro and GFS aren’t as gung ho. I’m assuming we may miss the developing CCB but I also think the leaf on the nw side of things may end up looking better as simulated radars get in closer range. Does anyone have a concern of a dry slot since the decaying primary will be trying to push in toward us or will that be more of a concern for I77/west?

I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer.  One way to visualize is to go to:  https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation.  You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN.  Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us.

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

The MoCo-HoCo deathband is a real thing. ;)

I'm hoping my new location is far enough west to get into that deathband. I think I might be just a smidge too far east, but it's going to be fun seeing what this area is like in marginal events and what difference, if any, it makes. I obviously know it's not a Hoffman/Mappy type location.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. 

Agree.  This is a very good overall summary.  And I'll also take this opportunity to thank @MillvilleWx for the amazing discussions (even when on mids...not to be confused with meds!!:lol:) as well as @MN Transplant, @psuhoffman.  Thanks for keeping it real and civil, regardless of what each model run shows.

With a little luck where I'm at just on the northwest side of the beltway, it will be more sleety than rain through that time later Wednesday afternoon.  I'm intrigued by the after-00Z Wednesday evening into late Wednesday night timeframe as well, if that deform band produces.  Nobody around I-95 should be expecting a foot-plus, but a decent warning-level event seems quite possible.  Which is far more than many of us have gotten in nearly 2 years.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I think for Staunton down to Roanoke, it is simply a matter of this being a later developer.  One way to visualize is to go to:  https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Choose the GFS, and then under precipitation go to the 24 precip accumulation.  You can see that tomorrow's system is a fully formed event with a nice stripe of precipitation coming from MS/AL/TN.  Whereas Wednesday's storm really doesn't all come together until it is on top of us.

Awesome site thank you for that! So in this scenario I would be pleased. 1” of liquid and about 9.4” of snow if taken verbatim. 

E159ADB8-3167-43A1-AB76-4CD38DB2C4D5.png

0903143E-4247-4712-A50E-7CFB4E023A88.png

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