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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Went towards the euro wow!

We haven’t had coastal systems in so long, that the EE rule has been in hibernation.;) 

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1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

No way, no how does lower HV like westchester/rockland get 3-5. It's wrong with its northern precip extent. 

And why

 

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

No way, no how does lower HV like westchester/rockland get 3-5. It's wrong with its northern precip extent. 

And why is that no how wrong?

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8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

And why

 

And why is that no how wrong?

It has zero support from other models. It has a south and east bias. The low is too far south IMO before it juts east and the northern precip shield isn't representative of how I think it will verify and has been depicted by every other model. I am using a blend of the Euro/cmc. Im not buying the ukie or gfs. 

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Latest OKX AFD:

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NWP guidance in very good agreement on evolution of synoptic
scale ingredients for what should be a major winter storm from
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

A blocking upper high over Greenland will force an extension of
the polar vortex to pass to its south and cut off E of the
Canadian Maritimes, with confluence to its rear maintaining
strong/cold high pressure from Ontario/Quebec into New England
from Tue into Wed. Meanwhile, energy just about to move onto the
West Coast will dig SE toward the srn Plains where it may cut
off briefly, but should maintain a positive to neutral tilt
aloft as it moves E of the Mississippi valley on Wed, lessening
the chance for warm air to intrude aloft. Primary sfc low
pressure should weaken to the W of the Appalachians on Wed while
a secondary low forms right along the Carolina coast and then
intensifies as it moves to a position off the Delmarva coast
late Wed night.

Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of
warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for
just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of
eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the
mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall
amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential
for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best
mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track.

NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the
pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the
developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45
mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at
least near blizzard conditions.

Still some question how quickly the low will pull out on Thu,
with the ECMWF lagging a little behind the GFS, so steady snow
still likely in the morning, then gradually tapering off from W
to E through the day.

 

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8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It may not be wrong but right now no other model is that far south with the cutoff of precip.  

In my view the 12z Ukie can definitely be disregarded however I would be cautious about tossing the GFS / GEFS.  If the GFS suite were to verify this would not be the first time where confluence over New England forced a winter storm off to the south of us.  I would incorporate a blend of these models.

snowfall_acc.us_ne.png

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34 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Incredible winds coming which I think is being overlooked 

Near blizzard conditions are possible in coastal locations. Pretty strong gradient setting up. 

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Upton all in

 

Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of
warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for
just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of
eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the
mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall
amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential
for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best
mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track.

NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the
pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the
developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45
mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at
least near blizzard conditions.

Still some question how quickly the low will pull out on Thu,
with the ECMWF lagging a little behind the GFS, so steady snow
still likely in the morning, then gradually tapering off from W
to E through the day.

Fair and cold Thu night into Sat with high pressure returning,
then some moderation possible with an approaching frontal
system. Too early to get into precip type details with this
system, just calling it mainly rain/snow at this juncture

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I lived in Luzerne County during the early 2010s and remember many a storm giving NJ the snow and we smoked cirrus.  Why would the gfs be right? What effect is the monster 950 low having on the high? I watched like 3/4 storms in a row blast southeast of Scranton/Wilkes Barre.   

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3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

In my view the 12z Ukie can definitely be disregarded however I would be cautious about tossing the GFS / GEFS.  If the GFS suite were to verify this would not be the first time where confluence over New England forced a winter storm off to the south of us.  I would incorporate a blend of these models.

snowfall_acc.us_ne.png

I agree - though at least for this one, the GFS is producing decent totals for those in the immediate NYC metro. This is different from the storm or two in the past where the GFS was correct but also showed NYC getting shafted...

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2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I lived in Luzerne County during the early 2010s and remember many a storm giving NJ the snow and we smoked cirrus.  Why would the gfs be right? What effect is the monster 950 low having on the high? I watched like 3/4 storms in a row blast southeast of Scranton/Wilkes Barre.   

It’s probably just the suppression bias in the v15. We can only hope that v16 has fixed this issue.

 

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Near blizzard conditions are possible in coastal locations. Pretty strong gradient setting up. 

Almost every model hinting at 50-60mph gust nyc east 

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2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I’d rather not have the wind aspect of the storm materialize. It cuts down on snow growth potential.

idk. 25 inches or 17 inches with 10 foot drifts..tough call

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9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

You can keep the wind. I don't want it  

It adds to the ferocity of a storm.  Nothing like strong winds and heavy blinding snow. 

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