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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020


wdrag
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Just now, lee59 said:

I wouldn't really call it a bust because the high snow totals were some 4-5 days out. If you get your hopes to high that far out, you will bust a lot. Even now there is still so much time to do most anything. We still have a good storm to track and the uncertainty is what makes it so interesting.

Given the -NAO and high in place it would be a fairly significant bust if this ended up primarily rain near the coast or the average snow total amongst EWR/NYC/JFK/LGA was not at least 5-7 inches.

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Given the -NAO and high in place it would be a fairly significant bust if this ended up primarily rain near the coast or the average snow total amongst EWR/NYC/JFK/LGA was not at least 5-7 inches.

Well we have 3 days for it to trend a certain way. It won't be a bust if models show mostly rain by tonight's or tomorrow's runs. 

If it suddenly went bad 24 hours out or during the storm then I see that as a bust. 

And if things trend poorly then it is what it is, you can't get upset about the weather. The PNA is not good and the Atlantic blocking may not be enough to save us but we'll see I guess. 

Someone's gonna get a good storm, it just may not be the immediate NYC metro.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well we have 3 days for it to trend a certain way. It won't be a bust if models show mostly rain by tonight's or tomorrow's runs. 

If it suddenly went bad 24 hours out or during the storm then I see that as a bust. 

And if things trend poorly then it is what it is, you can't get upset about the weather. The PNA is not good and the Atlantic blocking may not be enough to save us but we'll see I guess. 

Someone's gonna get a good storm, it just may not be the immediate NYC metro.

That's why its never a sure thing 4 or 5 days out no matter how much model agreement there is

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