Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Allsnow]

1038 high!!!

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No. They’re doing away with it 

Really? We never getting NAMed again?? That sucks 

[SI Mailman]

 

Philly getting obliterated

[mweisenfeld]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Really? We never getting NAMed again?? That sucks 

Is the thought that the hi-res is sufficient, or is that going, too?

[Allsnow]

700mb closed off at hour 90 this is going to be a big hit 

[MJO812]

Gfs is even further south than 6z. Great spot for our area but I'm more worried about a whiff given the blocking up north. 

[Allsnow]

Wow

[SI Mailman]

despite all that, snow totals are down on GFS compared to previous runs.  

 

[Allsnow]

But the nam....

[SnoSki14]

And then there's the Gfs lol

[NJwx85]

Not liking the trends today for us folks North of I80.

[cleetussnow]

Shall not pass!  That confluence means business.  

[White Gorilla]

I am not going to react yet and just wait for better data sampling of the system with model runs late tonight into tomorrow.  

[MJO812]

Cmc!

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not liking the trends today for us folks North of I80.

The GFS/GEFS is probably the closest to reality

[ILoveWinter]

Some models have heavier totals north of NYC, some south.  Even with that I think we have had pretty good consensus for the past few days (remarkable honestly) and averaging all this out, NYC and immediate Metro look to be in a pretty good spot right now.

[MJO812]

Cmc is cold and snowy

[romba]

Usually Kuchera shows much more ‘realistic’ totals for those marginal snow storms, but with this it shows more consistently. Is that due to potential ratios? Does it take wind into account?

[the_other_guy]

55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm.

You’re going to give people a stroke haha

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Cmc is cold and snowy

Hopefully it's correct. How's its skill level been?

[forkyfork]

i didn't actually think we were getting a rainstorm

[MJO812]

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i didn't actually think we were getting a rainstorm

now areas north of I80 are worrying about not getting more then a few inches the thing to concentrate on is the high to the north ...

 

[NJwx85]

The GFS and its ensembles are on their own. The NAM is not even worth looking at right now. The GGEM and Euro combo also has the UKMET.

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i didn't actually think we were getting a rainstorm

Yeah but you would rather we did. It's ok we still like you. 

[bluewave]

The UKMET looks further NW than the GFS. But these early lo res charts aren’t the easiest to make out. 
 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i didn't actually think we were getting a rainstorm

I should prob pin this somewhere 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

now areas north of I80 are worrying about not getting more then a few inches

 

Snow is snow but often times when you have confluence like that the extent of the Northern cutoff is even sharper than forecasted. I have PTSD from many of these similar events.

[Tatamy]

[Allsnow]

The GEFS are way south lol