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Typhoon Tip

Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

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10 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said:

Thank you.  I'm in Easton.  Hopefully we can get a few inches on the backside, but I'd pass if it meant power outages.  I remember we lost power from the Mar 1-3 '18 storm and I couldn't drive a half mile in some places without seeing a tree leaning on a house.    

Welcome.... I work at Stonehill college and live off 138 on the raynham Taunton Easton line... right on the hockomock swamp.

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1 minute ago, Arnold214 said:

Should see thunder with that

Yeah a lot of MAULish soundings showing up.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah....on the 3km NAM, you are close but just below the crosshair.....the bars on the left are omega. I marked max omega with an "x" and then you match it up with the temp profile to the right....you can see it's just below the bext SGZ, but it's still like -10C so that's gonna be pretty decent,....and you still have good lift above the max lift region. Ideally the max lift would be a touch higher, but that will still be pretty solid.

I can actually see what the 3km has for a rime factor (which is incorporated into its snowfall) in AWIPS. So in general it can be more realistic than your traditional 10:1 or Kuchera maps because it's trying to model microphysics.

The reason lift below the DGZ is not great as Will is pointing out here is because lift from below is likely driving supercooled water into the DGZ. If there is supercooled water hanging around you'll rime your snowflakes and kill your ratios. If lift is smack in the middle of the DGZ you can produce pure dendrites and don't have to worry about riming as much on the way down.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BobbyDoppler, welcome. Grew up a few miles east of you. Hopefully you are up by Bay Rd near Sharon. LOL.

Thank you.  Grew up in Canton.  Near 5 corners in Easton now.  Bay rd may be quite tricky to navigate come tomorrow eve.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I can actually see what the 3km has for a rime factor (which is incorporated into its snowfall) in AWIPS. So in general it can be more realistic than your traditional 10:1 or Kuchera maps because it's trying to model microphysics.

The reason lift below the DGZ is not great as Will is pointing out here is because lift from below is likely driving supercooled water into the DGZ. If there is supercooled water hanging around you'll rime your snowflakes and kill your ratios. If lift is smack in the middle of the DGZ you can produce pure dendrites and don't have to worry about riming as much on the way down.

That will separate the men from the boys. One of those deals where a narrow area doubles what they have around them because of that reason.

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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Welcome.... I work at Stonehill college and live off 138 on the raynham Taunton Easton line... right on the hockomock swamp.

Awesome!  I drive by there on my way to work in Quincy.  If you were there a couple years ago you prob saw the trees hanging on the power lines over Belmont St after those Mar '18 storms.  Images tattooed in my mind.  

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS gets a nice bone thrown to it around 5-9pm....pretty intense stinger on the CCB. This run slows down a little vs 12z as its tracking across the Cape and northeast which helps the CCB really go to town over E MA than some of the other guidance.

Yeah the hint of slowdown off the Cape is intriguing for eastern SNE, something to watch in next 12 hours

Re: your post on crosshairs... yeah interior eastern SNE (at least 495 and southeast) has never looked ideal in that regard. Best lift is all below DGZ. Snowgrowth might not be optimized, but I'm not familiar if there is something different about stinger mechanics to think that can be overcome.

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CAE extending the Winter Storm Watch into Bangor. Going to warnings now N&W of I-95:

Quote
MEZ011-015-051500-
/O.EXA.KCAR.WS.A.0008.201205T1800Z-201207T0000Z/
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LINCOLN, HOWLAND, SPRINGFIELD, BANGOR, 
BREWER, ORONO, AND OLD TOWN
345 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
  OF 4 TO 10 INCHES AND MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER
  OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.

* WHERE...CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES.

* WHEN...FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY 
  BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE 
  LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

&&

 

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I can actually see what the 3km has for a rime factor (which is incorporated into its snowfall) in AWIPS. So in general it can be more realistic than your traditional 10:1 or Kuchera maps because it's trying to model microphysics.

The reason lift below the DGZ is not great as Will is pointing out here is because lift from below is likely driving supercooled water into the DGZ. If there is supercooled water hanging around you'll rime your snowflakes and kill your ratios. If lift is smack in the middle of the DGZ you can produce pure dendrites and don't have to worry about riming as much on the way down.

I almost wonder ... 

Sometimes in thunder-snow ... you get these 'pingers' that aren't really clear like sleet, but are mangle aggregated refrozen thumpers along side of the "normal" aggregates. - Its something I routinely noticed when amid the fall column out of a snowing thunderstorm - 

I'm wondering if it's similar to what you are describing...  to being 'in the top half of a CB cloud' ... interesting -  like aggregates are getting UVM blasted and caked into clusters - hail seeds if you will... 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I almost wonder ... 

Sometimes in thunder-snow ... you get these 'pingers' that aren't really clear like sleet, but are mangle aggregated refrozen thumpers along side of the "normal" aggregates. - Its something I routinely noticed when the near the fall column out of a thunderstorm - 

I'm wondering if it's similar to being 'in the top half of a CB cloud' ... interesting -  like aggregates are getting UVM blasted and caked in to clusters - hail seeds if you will... 

In convection is most likely riming that is producing that, but in certain events actual sleet has been observed. OKX did in Feb 2013.

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