mappy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’m sure the weenies that actually get screwed in these events really enjoy watching you and psuhoffman pretend you are going to get screwed as well only to then get the highest totals in the state and tell us all about it. I have been on these boards for a long time and this same pattern plays out every single time... Next thing is you’ll say the storm is fringing you and “congrats to those further south!” Every damn time. I think everyone can discuss the possibility of the mix line making it west and being a concern for the favorable spots, even if it doesn’t end up that way. No need to be abrasive about it though 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Sitting right on the 50% probs for 3 inches or greater. Not far from 70% After last winter, 3-5 inches would be fine for a mid Dec storm. As long as it doesn't all come on the front end and wash away lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: After last winter, 3-5 inches would be fine for a mid Dec storm. As long as it doesn't all come on the front end and wash away lol. At least the signal for another storm is increasing right before or during the holidays. We miss this one, get crushed by the next? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 There have been references to easterly flow warming things up. I realize the Atlantic is warmer now then it is later in winter, but does someone know how it is relative to an average December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You’ll also get upslope after the storm departs and orographic enhancement during. The globals are not good at detecting that at this range. Ah, good point on the orographic enhancement...we’ve had the house for 4 years and its kind of crazy this is the first big coastal since then so I need to figure out the climo specifics there during these events. Appreciate the details. It always amazes me when its sunny and 45 in Frostburg and 28 with light snow falling all day in Garrett County. Although that’s childplay compared to your new place in Randolph - your view is unreal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: At least the signal for another storm is increasing right before or during the holidays. We miss this one, get crushed by the next? Yep, active tracking continues, with two possible threats after Wednesday/Thursday event, with multiple shortwaves moving under the block. Been a very long time since we have tracked multiple threats in December. Stock up on coffee ! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, frd said: Yep, active tracking continues, with two possible threats after Wednesday/Thursday event, with multiple shortwaves moving under the block. Been a very long time since we have tracked multiple threats in December. Stock up on coffee ! -NAO with serious staying power on both the EPS and GEFS through the end of the run. That will help play traffic cop with the shortwaves. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: There have been references to easterly flow warming things up. I realize the Atlantic is warmer now then it is later in winter, but does someone know how it is relative to an average December? I was looking at sea surface maps the other day and the mid Atlantic was near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: -NAO with serious staying power on both the EPS and GEFS through the end of the run. That will help play traffic cop with the shortwaves. No doubt we will be in the holiday spirit, and we need it ! . Maybe time to move the snow blower to the front of the garage, its been buried back there since 2016. And yes, that is a very long duration - AO / - NAO combo on the modeling. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I think everyone can discuss the possibility of the mix line making it west and being a concern for the favorable spots, even if it doesn’t end up that way. No need to be abrasive about it though He can't help himself. He's an arrogant know it all that hasn't added or contributed anything concrete or positive to the board in 15 years. All we said is that we may have some small mixing issues. We weren't whining or complaining. I always root for everyone to do well and if we get shafted up here then I'm happy for the others that do well. He's been obsessed with the northern crew for years. He consistently goes out of his way to attack us. Talk about being picked last in gym class. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 A couple thoughts....I count roughly 26 6z EPS members that basically keep the big accumulations 95 n/w. I'm not going to start paying serious attention to r/s/mix line until after the monday system. I'd imagine there will be adjustments one way or the other after the Monday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 29 minutes ago, mappy said: I expect it, but verbatim, gfs and euro both stay cold enough for me throughout. Gfs gets close midday but with heavy precip overhead I wouldn’t be concerned. It's times like this that I'm glad I live above 600 feet in elevation. 28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Importantly IMO, we’re about 48 hrs away from a critical piece moving into place with the first wave. Say what you will about the details but the synoptic evolution has been consistent for days and we’re just getting closer in time.. This. Wouldn't be shocked to see some last minute bump one way or the other Tuesday morning once the Monday event clears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's times like this that I'm glad I live above 600 feet in elevation. Elevation helps for sure. Enjoy whatever falls though, even if it’s a mix. Could always be worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, HighStakes said: He can't help himself. He's an arrogant know it all that hasn't added or contributed anything concrete or positive to the board in 15 years. All we said is that we may have some small mixing issues. We weren't whining or complaining. I always root for everyone to do well and if we get shafted up here then I'm happy for the others that do well. He's been obsessed with the northern crew for years. He consistently goes out of his way to attack us. Talk about being picked last in gym class. Triggered! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 29 minutes ago, mappy said: Oh I’ll make out just fine, probably from both threats. I’ve got decent elevation so I’ll be frozen the majority of the time. But was just commenting on something I’ve noticed that happens up here in these setups. Either the mix line sits overhead, or it’s just to my east and I jackpot I was looking at the temps and Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning of the year for many in Northeast... in this scenario we have a building cold air mass and an exiting storm to usher it in. I really think that temps break in right direction for us. My kids and nephew will probably go to Oregon ridge Thurs morning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I'd rather be on the cusp 5 days out than 48 hours out. There are still chances for things to fall into place for some enjoyable snow. If 2020 is the upside down. Then our snow drought ends this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Starting to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: in this scenario we have a building cold air mass and an exiting storm to usher it in. I really think that temps break in right direction for us. Monday's storm is continuing to trend stronger, although there has been some noise. This will help draw more cold air in as it becomes our 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 None of this really matters anyways. It won’t snow much Wednesday when temps this weekend will be 60s 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 44 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Sometimes Deep Creek is too far west to get in the deform. But you will make up for that with higher ratios. Really loving the Front Royal to Hagerstown area for this one. And not because I live in Winchester. It just appears that is where the deform is going to be on all of the models. 81 is going to be a disaster. Dude 81 is a disaster on a sunny day 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 One of the best joys about being a winter weather enthusiast (or weenie, lol) in the mid-Atlantic is seeing a nice snowstorm, especially in December, after many years of warmth and misery. And the fact that these snow droughts often end in December makes the ending even more spectacular, and they also tend to be accompanied by stretches of deep winter. December 2002, December 2009, and December 2013 (in the northern and western areas) were all great examples of what I’m talking about, and all of them later went on to become excellent winters. I’d love for the same to happen this month, with this storm. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Dude 81 is a disaster on a sunny day Yep! Used to drive down 81 on my way to Virginia Tech. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Fozz said: One of the best joys about being a winter weather enthusiast (or weenie, lol) in the mid-Atlantic is seeing a nice snowstorm, especially in December, after many years of warmth and misery. And the fact that these snow droughts often end in December makes the ending even more spectacular, and they also tend to be accompanied by stretches of deep winter. December 2002, December 2009, and December 2013 (in the northern and western areas) were all great examples of what I’m talking about, and all of them later went on to become excellent winters. I’d love for the same to happen this month, with this storm. Did you move back to Maryland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, H2O said: None of this really matters anyways. It won’t snow much Wednesday when temps this weekend will be 60s oh shit.. I didnt think of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, H2O said: None of this really matters anyways. It won’t snow much Wednesday when temps this weekend will be 60s I didn’t want to bring it up...but 4” soil temps are torched. White rain inbound. Take the snow depth product and divide by 5 if you want a realistic accumulation estimate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, nj2va said: Ah, good point on the orographic enhancement...we’ve had the house for 4 years and its kind of crazy this is the first big coastal since then so I need to figure out the climo specifics there during these events. Appreciate the details. It always amazes me when its sunny and 45 in Frostburg and 28 with light snow falling all day in Garrett County. Although that’s childplay compared to your new place in Randolph - your view is unreal. Growing up in Cumberland I can remember lots of storms where the heaviest snows from coastal storms never made it west of Frostburg. But those were usually the ones that tracked some distance off of the coast, like PD1. If this one is tucked into the coast like the models are currently depicting, you will do great there with the synoptic snow. And even in the storms where Cumberland had more than Oakland with the low passing by, your area usually still won out as it snowed another 24 hours with the upslope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I didn’t want to bring it up...but 4” soil temps are torched. White rain inbound. Take the snow depth product and divide by 5 if you want a realistic accumulation estimate. Hold on.. didnt it snow like a foot in Denver earlier this year on the same day it was 80 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: Hold on.. didnt it snow like a foot in Denver earlier this year on the same day it was 80 degrees? Totally different on the front range dude. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I didn’t want to bring it up...but 4” soil temps are torched. White rain inbound. Take the snow depth product and divide by 5 if you want a realistic accumulation estimate. Seriously? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: Did you move back to Maryland? Nope. I’m still in RI, though I’ve sometimes visited my old home in MD and worked remotely from there in recent months. But I’ve been paying plenty of attention to this system and this setup because it reminds me of some of my best weather memories from the past. So far SNE is looking to be in an equally good spot for this storm. Still though, I’ve been told that I still have a mid-Atlantic mentality, and that’s probably because I haven’t been there long enough to get spoiled by their climo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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