December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Just now, H2O said:

And those runs won’t verify because the storms don’t do that. They never fringe people in favored spots

That does happen, but not likely in this situation. Some minor shifts that might be favorable for eastern areas aren't going to have much if any impact on the NW crew.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

@CAPE in relation to the snow map above where are you ? In the  the 3 inch color  bar?   I am straddling the 5 inch line, ( at the DC&D Canal ) which in the past at this range is a good signal for accumulating snow for my area. ,  Remember way back in 2003 I believe President Day 2 , I mixed, did you ?  I am starting to get a bit excited, but knowing our area, tempering my enthusiasm. Looks like psu gets slammed.  

I am literally right where it says 3.6, maybe a tad NE.

[RDM]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Am wondering as well as to whether rates will overcome the column in parts of the area where a "mix" would be possible.  Like if the column gets close to being isothermal or even close to 0.5C at the 850/925 level... if rates were let's say an inch an hour... I could see snow being the predominant PTYPE

Isn't that what happened with the surprise storm in Nov of 87 here?  Forecast was for a few flurries and a deformation band setup along a line from Mt. Vernon/Woodbridge up through Eastern FFCO and the eastern part of the beltway.  The influx of cold air from a stronger than anticipated hp up over the GLs helped create the lift and the intense results caught everyone by surprise.  

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps continues to look more robust with high pressure each run and its increasing qpf each run . 2 things that make you feel the special kind of  feelin 

6z Eps plots I’ve seen are a tick better than 0z in the feature placement we want. But all in all pretty consistent. 
 

Nearing D4 for snow start...let’s keep this rolling.

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, frd said:

@CAPE in relation to the snow map above where are you ? In the  the 3 inch color  bar?   I am straddling the 5 inch line, ( at the DC&D Canal ) which in the past at this range is a good signal for accumulating snow for my area. ,  Remember way back in 2003 I believe President Day 2 , I mixed, did you ?  I am starting to get a bit excited, but knowing our area, tempering my enthusiasm. Looks like psu gets slammed.  

PD 2 mixed and in fact was a complete switch to sleet where I lived at the time in Reisterstown. I mixed in 96 too but only briefly before the deform band. 

[Weather Will]

Here are all the WB 6Z EPS members, pick your favorite.  Nice consensus a storm is coming!!!!

[H2O]

Just now, CAPE said:

That does happen, but not likely in this situation. Some minor shifts that might be favorable for eastern areas aren't going to have much if any impact on the NW crew.

One thing I never see the models get right is the placement of where the southern extent of confluence meets the precip being shoved north and cause that deathband. Where that happens is the sweet spot. Seems like for that to happen to both you and me the low needs to be near Bermuda 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

That is just nuts...I was alive to play in the snow for that one but have little memory of it.  Those stats would rival anything in my weather memory. 

It was amazing.  I stayed outside most of the day, playing and shoveling, or just walking and sightseeing.   The rates from late morning and early afternoon was astounding.  I can still here the sound of the pouring flakes on my jacket as thunder rolled.  Vis definitely under 200 yards, and it wasn't really windy.  You could see the snow piling up.  I remember it like it was yesterday.

[HighStakes]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hell, these setups are sometimes iffy even up my way, the snow/sleet/rain line either sits just to my east, or overhead. Depends on how far west the warm air gets.

I agree. We definitely could be trying to fight off some mixing during the middle of the storm. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Here are all the WB 6Z EPS members, pick your favorite.  Nice consensus a storm is coming!!!!

Gimme 06, 21, 25

likely to get 45, 11, and any other that has DC under 2”

[mappy]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

I agree. We definitely could be trying to fight off some mixing during the middle of the storm. 

I expect it, but verbatim, gfs and euro both stay cold enough for me throughout. Gfs gets close midday but with heavy precip overhead I wouldn’t be concerned.

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, H2O said:

And those runs won’t verify because the storms don’t do that. They never fringe people in favored spots

It is definitely possible for the storm to shift SE enough to not give the WV crew 2 feet while improving for you. The “favored spot” that is screw-proof in the vast majority of cases is up by psuhoffman and that tier. But oh man can they whine with the best of them. I expect by Monday there will be the usual “OTS” looking runs that cause panic for them. Happens every time. 

[H2O]

Per that 6z EPS map it says 5.2” and I know I should be absolutely thrilled with that right now. Given the last couple years it would be the most snow in as many. And it would be more than others might get.  
 

So I’ll shut up and not complain

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I agree. We definitely could be trying to fight off some mixing during the middle of the storm. 

LOL ok sure thing extreme northern tier guy. We all know the climo drill. There is no need for faux-concern. 

[40westwx]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hell, these setups are sometimes iffy even up my way, the snow/sleet/rain line either sits just to my east, or overhead. Depends on how far west the warm air gets.

My guess is you will be fine. everyone might see some sleet when the low is just to our se.. but that happens pretty much every storm that wraps up like this.  The front end thump will be where we cash in. I have this feeling we will trend colder in over the next few days!

[frd]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Per that 6z EPS map it says 5.2” and I know I should be absolutely thrilled with that right now. Given the last couple years it would be the most snow in as many. And it would be more than others might get.  
 

So I’ll shut up and not complain

Also, a good sign for the rest of the winter. If the event happens, which is likely it appears, and is significant, it may portend the possibility of additional blocking episodes in January, February and March. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

This will be the first coastal that I’ll likely be out at Deep Creek...curious if the NW shield of precip is undermodeled in intensity/coverage on a model run like the 6z GFS.  

Sometimes Deep Creek is too far west to get in the deform. But you will make up for that with higher ratios. Really loving the Front Royal to Hagerstown area for this one. And not because I live in Winchester. It just appears that is where the deform is going to be on all of the models. 81 is going to be a disaster.

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Per that 6z EPS map it says 5.2” and I know I should be absolutely thrilled with that right now. Given the last couple years it would be the most snow in as many. And it would be more than others might get.  
 

So I’ll shut up and not complain

It's showing me on the 0.5-1" line. I hate the Euro. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6z EPS  prob maps.  Couple of observations.  The probs did tick up SE compared to 0Z and the upper end of the storm is below 18 inches.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

My guess is you will be fine. everyone might see some sleet when the low is just to our se.. but that happens pretty much every storm that wraps up like this.  The front end thump will be where we cash in. I have this feeling we will trend colder in over the next few days!

Oh I’ll make out just fine, probably from both threats. I’ve got decent elevation so I’ll be frozen the majority of the time. But was just commenting on something I’ve noticed that happens up here in these setups. Either the mix line sits overhead, or it’s just to my east and I jackpot

[HighStakes]

Just now, PhineasC said:

LOL ok sure thing extreme northern tier guy. We all know the climo drill. There is no need for faux-concern. 

Maybe the next house you buy could be in Siberia so you can get as far away as possible from Maryland. 

[frd]

Wow ! 

Hello old friend I have missed you. 

 

[JakkelWx]

Sitting right on the 50% probs for 3 inches or greater. Not far from 70%

[H2O]

Oh burn

[Chris78]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Sometimes Deep Creek is too far west to get in the deform. But you will make up for that with higher ratios. Really loving the Front Royal to Hagerstown area for this one. And not because I live in Winchester. It just appears that is where the deform is going to be on all of the models. 81 is going to be a disaster.

This looks like a classic I - 81 mauling. Hard to not be excited out this way. 

[HighStakes]

11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It was amazing.  I stayed outside most of the day, playing and shoveling, or just walking and sightseeing.   The rates from late morning and early afternoon was astounding.  I can still here the sound of the pouring flakes on my jacket as thunder rolled.  Vis definitely under 200 yards, and it wasn't really windy.  You could see the snow piling up.  I remember it like it was yesterday.

Yup. That's exactly how I remember that storm. It was unreal.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Maybe the next house you buy could be in Siberia so you can get as far away as possible from Maryland. 

I’m sure the weenies that actually get screwed in these events really enjoy watching you and psuhoffman pretend you are going to get screwed as well only to then get the highest totals in the state and tell us all about it. I have been on these boards for a long time and this same pattern plays out every single time...

Next thing is you’ll say the storm is fringing you and “congrats to those further south!” Every damn time. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Sometimes Deep Creek is too far west to get in the deform. But you will make up for that with higher ratios. Really loving the Front Royal to Hagerstown area for this one. And not because I live in Winchester. It just appears that is where the deform is going to be on all of the models. 81 is going to be a disaster.

Agreed, I think that area to perhaps as far west as Hancock (depending on how tucked in the coastal is) are in the sweet spot for this for highest totals.  And yeah I figure I’ll have less QPF out there but will somewhat offset with better ratios.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Importantly IMO, we’re about 48 hrs away from a critical piece moving into place with the first wave. Say what you will about the details but the synoptic evolution has been consistent for days and we’re just getting closer in time..

Yup. We’ve got nice consistency right now and the ensemble range of outcomes is narrowing and improving. But still at a range where rug pulling is possible. Monday 0z runs are my mark on the wall. Get it there and then we should be down to  mesoscale features. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Agreed, I think that area to perhaps as far west as Hancock (depending on how tucked in the coastal is) are in the sweet spot for this for highest totals.  And yeah I figure I’ll have less QPF out there but will somewhat offset with better ratios.

You’ll also get upslope after the storm departs and orographic enhancement during. The globals are not good at detecting that at this range.