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yoda

December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Week away from December, we are.  Need a thread to discuss beginning of winter we do, yes yes.  Mmmmm... Snow will it?  Cold enough will it be?  Discuss you must... or the Dark Side, win it will with rain and warm weather, yes yes

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I think if we get anything prior to dec 5th it would be a miracle. The better pattern to me (if it holds on ens) is after dec 5th. Prior to dec 5th, yes there is a nice block but what are we blocking in? It's all pacific puke stuck underneath  with the real cold core being under upper level lows. Really need to get the ridge more poleward out west instead of a chinook blasting through most of Canada. The poleward ridge will help transport colder air into eastern Canada as the eps show later in the period, which we need to see hold. Also, blue on an h5 map doesn't necessarily mean cold either, also can represent storminess. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It was fun while it lasted lol

In December, I have 3 weeks of Vacation to burn... I have flexibility to take it whenever I want (given sufficient notice and within reason). The kids can do their classes from their iPhones and laptops via hotspot.  

This means that where ever it snows.. whenever it snows... we are going. 

My wife wont get on a plane.. and I can respect that.. but anything within a 400 mile radius is fair game for a road trip...

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54 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You've become more predictable than the weather lol :wub:

Surprised you didn't get it.

I know I'm a terrible poet, but still..

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44 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I think if we get anything prior to dec 5th it would be a miracle. The better pattern to me (if it holds on ens) is after dec 5th. Prior to dec 5th, yes there is a nice block but what are we blocking in? It's all pacific puke stuck underneath  with the real cold core being under upper level lows. Really need to get the ridge more poleward out west instead of a chinook blasting through most of Canada. The poleward ridge will help transport colder air into eastern Canada as the eps show later in the period, which we need to see hold. Also, blue on an h5 map doesn't necessarily mean cold either, also can represent storminess. 

Exactly, anyone thinking snow in early December with a well above average source region is grasping for straws. As CAPE mentioned maybe the real deal, if we ever get one, is when Canada chills down through cross polar flow / - EPO later in the month of December, or beyond. Not sure I agree with Eric Webb about the South getting snow in the depicted pattern outside of the higher elevations. 

There was always some hope December may deliver by being a shoulder month with a less strong PV. ( But, hey it really is strong currently so... ) 

Also, there are signs zonal winds may decline later in December. This may assist with HL with blocking,  along with a couple other factors. 

tenday.gif

 

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Just now, Ji said:

i speculate that its not going to snow

lol

The advertised pattern does hold some potential for somewhere, probably the mountains at our latitude. Most likely it wont  be cold enough for the lowlands, but something like a closed low taking a southern track can get it done.

 

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Agree with all that’s been said by @tombo82685 and others. The advertised pattern would more likely offer snow chances around Dec 5-10 then before. The Dec 3 period maybe has a snowballs chance if the needle is threaded somewhat like yesterday’s euro. End of the 6z gefs shows eastern Canada cooling down as the poleward PNA finally starts cutting off the Pac and dragging arctic air southward. 
 

Either way can’t be too upset about a very Nino-ish pattern going into December that should offer a few chances at least. Let’s keep that look through the next week and then we can get busy. 

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

very Nino-ish pattern going into December

 

Would love to eventually evolve the pattern change to a possible - EPO as HM mentioned recently moving deeper into December. 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

h5 looks decent on the GEFS.   But 850/2m temps are solidly average.  Its a start at least. 

Thats the positive I'm taking from it.  Below or near avg next week and into the longer range.  We don't have a torch that removes ANY chance.  I'll take snow TV at this point.

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11 minutes ago, H2O said:

Thats the positive I'm taking from it.  Below or near avg next week and into the longer range.  We don't have a torch that removes ANY chance.  I'll take snow TV at this point.

I'm with you.  Flurries, RN/SN mix, IP all at 3am...  sign me up. 

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Interesting change today, with the caveat needing  to see consistency in the next week, however, a  nice drop forecasted  in the AO domain. 

 

1020091992_ao.sprd2(5).thumb.gif.4e9f9024b5da29bb098b9960a1bd762e.gif

 

104399097_ao.sprd2(6).thumb.gif.8746fd567649f8974f310a776bfb9133.gif

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Just now, 40westwx said:

Seems to me like the NAO is forecasted to at least be "heading" in the right direction in the short term!  

Yes, that is true.  Several mets and pros have mentioned a period in December when the NAO may drop. There is also a huge wave breaking event getting under way as well in the North Atlantic.   This may have implications in the NAM domain as well . As mentioned here by Simon:

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS has a legit snowstorm for the western highlands early next week 

if I am not hallucinating h5 looks quite nice up in the important regions this go around at least on the op in the post 200hr range

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yes quite odd to see 522dm to the SW of our region and 552dm in upstate NY.  I suppose blocks can do crazy things...so can op runs post 200hr

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