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Baroclinic Zone

Fall Banter and General Discussion

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19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Over 90% of those 200k deaths had other major underlying conditions that are also leading causes of death, such as serious diabetes (85k deaths per year), chronic lower respiratory disease (150k deaths per year), and heart disease (655k deaths per year).

Just throwing out that 200k number with zero context is super misleading. A sizable percent of that 200k were already deathly ill and were destined to die this year no matter what. COVID helped that along just like a cold or pneumonia could.

I wonder what the real number of people that died just from covid with no underlying issues.

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52 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Over 90% of those 200k deaths had other major underlying conditions that are also leading causes of death, such as serious diabetes (85k deaths per year), chronic lower respiratory disease (150k deaths per year), and heart disease (655k deaths per year).

Just throwing out that 200k number with zero context is super misleading. A sizable percent of that 200k were already deathly ill and were destined to die this year no matter what. COVID helped that along just like a cold or pneumonia could.

Excess mortality is a good measure.  It’s a pretty heinous illness and has killed 200k people.   To say those people would have died anyway would apply to any pandemic.  This is up there with some of the worst we have encountered in the US.  And that number is with social distancing, masks, stay at homes etc and modern medical care.      
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/

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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

America... where everyone has an underlying condition.  High quality of life where you can have simple hypertension and be fine with a daily pill for decades.  Then COVID comes and pushes you off the cliff.
 

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32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Excess mortality is a good measure.  It’s a pretty heinous illness and has killed 200k people.   To say those people would have died anyway would apply to any pandemic.  This is up there with some of the worst we have encountered in the US.  And that number is with social distancing, masks, stay at homes etc and modern medical care.      
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/

Regardless of cause, my father who’s a retired physician, on hospital board of directors, etc doesn’t like to discuss the policy side of things but always shares with me the excess deaths data.  The excess deaths metrics are fascinating to look at in the US and other countries... deaths are incredibly stable year to year, almost to an incredible level to me.  Like year over year some very populated cities will be within extremely small variations.

He showed me one of his medical journals with NYC you can see very little variation going back to the point where you can see 9/11 for a spike in unexpected deaths.  Small blips can be traced to even heatwaves too.  Then starting in March it goes way high into April with unexplained spike in deaths, like nothing seen in the relative recent past.  That to me is the proof that those people wouldn’t have just died anyway.

They also looked at Ecuador and some other hard hit less prosperous countries... they compared the deaths to something you’d see from military conflict on excess deaths.

Cause aside, something happened to kill off a lot of people that hadn’t in the past.

Now public policy is a completely separate issue but too many people group the resulting public policy and their view on the illness all together.

 

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20 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Thankfully, we'll all be treated to this in the not too distant future. 

No reason for this stuff dude.  Don’t ruin the larger discussion.  

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Yeah let’s keep the politicians out of this thread. We’ve already went down that rabbit hole too far months ago. 

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42 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Excess mortality is a good measure.  It’s a pretty heinous illness and has killed 200k people.   To say those people would have died anyway would apply to any pandemic.  This is up there with some of the worst we have encountered in the US.  And that number is with social distancing, masks, stay at homes etc and modern medical care.      
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/

It’s doesn’t necessarily apply to any pandemic. Past flu pandemics killed healthy young people and children at a much higher rate, for example. 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Regardless of cause, my father who’s a retired physician, on hospital board of directors, etc doesn’t like to discuss the policy side of things but always shares with me the excess deaths data.  The excess deaths metrics are fascinating to look at in the US and other countries... deaths are incredibly stable year to year, almost to an incredible level to me.  Like year over year some very populated cities will be within extremely small variations.

He showed me one of his medical journals with NYC you can see very little variation going back to the point where you can see 9/11 for a spike in unexpected deaths.  Small blips can be traced to even heatwaves too.  Then starting in March it goes way high into April with unexplained spike in deaths, like nothing seen in the relative recent past.  That to me is the proof that those people wouldn’t have just died anyway.

They also looked at Ecuador and some other hard hit less prosperous countries... they compared the deaths to something you’d see from military conflict on excess deaths.

Cause aside, something happened to kill off a lot of people that hadn’t in the past.

Now public policy is a completely separate issue but too many people group the resulting public policy and their view on the illness all together.

 

I think a real measure will be if when this virus passes us, do we see a lower number of excess deaths. That would imply we sped up a bunch of deaths that might have occurred in the next, say, 2-3 years. I’ve seen that theory thrown around too. Obviously we wouldn’t be able to do that unless we have a widespread vaccine. 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

No reason for this stuff dude.  Don’t ruin the larger discussion.

I posted my thoughts already on the weather and my hopes on October. Since this is the banter thread, I thought I would add some imagery and very pointed thoughts,  just to make sure that younger kids understand what is at stake on November 3rd. You are one of my favorite posters! I live vicariously through you up there at Stowe.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think a real measure will be if when this virus passes us, do we see a lower number of excess deaths. That would imply we sped up a bunch of deaths that might have occurred in the next, say, 2-3 years. I’ve seen that theory thrown around too. Obviously we wouldn’t be able to do that unless we have a widespread vaccine. 

I guess it makes sense that those dying now can’t be dying later, and everyone alive needs to go at some point, so yeah obviously it’s speeding up death for those it kills... makes sense in that light.  

I guess the question would be how far out do you run it to correlate it with COVID, 2-3 years seems like a decent time frame for elderly populations.

On the human emotion side of it, most people would certainly sign up for another 3-5 years with their loved ones.  But that discussion heads more into the resulting public policy (ie was it worth it yes or no argument) which I’m trying to stay away from.  I think the excess deaths trends are/will be interesting.  

Something happened to push a whole bunch of humans over the cliff edge, will that mean there’s a gap before the next line of people get to the cliff edge?

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Excess mortality is a good measure.  It’s a pretty heinous illness and has killed 200k people.   To say those people would have died anyway would apply to any pandemic.  This is up there with some of the worst we have encountered in the US.  And that number is with social distancing, masks, stay at homes etc and modern medical care.      
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/

Plus the below study indicates, on average, ‘victims’ life expectancy was cut short by 11 years and not the ‘would have died this year anyway’ political BS that some like to throw around. But, as always, agendas lead some to disregard science or data while cherry picking misinformation to support their thinking. I’m sure there is info out there that supports the ‘would have died soon anyway’ theory so there is no way for most to change their opinions. The line in the sand has been drawn. 

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

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52 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s doesn’t necessarily apply to any pandemic. Past flu pandemics killed healthy young people and children at a much higher rate, for example. 

Purely curious, in those comparisons is there a modifier that accounts for change in health care, living conditions, etc?  I could certainly see past pandemics hitting those groups harder.

Have people been claiming this one was worse in those age groups?

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I guess it makes sense that those dying now can’t be dying later, and everyone alive needs to go at some point, so yeah obviously it’s speeding up death for those it kills... makes sense in that light.  

I guess the question would be how far out do you run it to correlate it with COVID, 2-3 years seems like a decent time frame for elderly populations.  On the human emotion side of it, most people would certainly sign up for another 3-5 years with their loved ones.

Yeah I wasn’t making a moral stance on it...death sucks no matter what...just throwing out an empirical way of measuring it. If you all of the sudden had, say, 70k less deaths than usual over the next 2 years after a theoretical vaccine next year, then you would be able to more accurately figure out how many were killed who weren’t likely to die very soon. You just subtract that number from the overall death toll. 

If the virus did not “pull forward” a ton of short terms deaths, and most were medium term on the order of a decade, then you would not see the excess deaths lower much at all.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I wasn’t making a moral stance on it...death sucks no matter what...just throwing out an empirical way of measuring it. If you all of the sudden had, say, 70k less deaths than usual over the next 2 years after a theoretical vaccine next year, then you would be able to more accurately figure out how many were killed who weren’t likely to die very soon. You just subtract that number from the overall death toll. 

If the virus did not “pull forward” a ton of short terms deaths, and most were medium term on the order of a decade, then you would not see the excess deaths lower much at all.

I really like that line of analysis though, it’ll be interesting to see.

We are certainly a society who continues to move towards keeping people alive as long as humanly possible, ha pun?  We pour billions into medical research, cancer research, complicated procedures, daily medications (some take so many they need trays to organize them), you name it... we are here to get everyone to live a day longer than they would’ve last year.  An early death is unacceptable.

Its an interesting philosophical discussion to have as a country.  It’s not a surprise we react this way.  Without a real discussion, death won’t get any more acceptable in future generations either, in fact it’ll be the opposite as we keep plowing on in medical advancements and expectations grow.  

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I really like that line of analysis though, it’ll be interesting to see.

We are certainly a society who continues to move towards keeping people alive as long as humanly possible, ha pun?  We pour billions into medical research, cancer research, complicated procedures, you name it... we are here to get everyone to live a day longer than they would’ve last year.  An early death is unacceptable.

Its an interesting philosophical discussion to have as a country.  It’s not a surprise we react this way.  Without a real discussion, death won’t get any more acceptable in future generations either, in fact it’ll be the opposite as we keep plowing on in medical advancements and expectations grow.

We don’t keep people alive longer or cure diseases better because we are morally superior then previous generations... we do so because there are billions at stake, billions to be made. 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We don’t keep people alive longer or cure diseases better because we are morally superior then previous generations... we do so because there are billions at stake, billions to be made. 

I didn't think it had anything to do with moral superiority... and I'm not saying there isn't a lot of money at stake... but it's basic anthropology that the more advanced and prosperous a society gets the longer their population lives and in return the more unacceptable early death becomes.  Since the dawn of time people have been trying methods to get themselves and others to live as long as possible... from witch doctors and potions, to the magic elixirs and fountains of youth.  Humans have always had the desire to prolong life as long as possible.  As one of the most prosperous/advanced countries in the world, early death is much more unacceptable here than it is in say West Africa.

We are really in the "banter" zone but I find this stuff interesting to ponder.

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28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I didn't think it had anything to do with moral superiority... and I'm not saying there isn't a lot of money at stake... but it's basic anthropology that the more advanced and prosperous a society gets the longer their population lives and in return the more unacceptable early death becomes.  Since the dawn of time people have been trying methods to get themselves and others to live as long as possible... from witch doctors and potions, to the magic elixirs and fountains of youth.  Humans have always had the desire to prolong life as long as possible.  As one of the most prosperous/advanced countries in the world, early death is much more unacceptable here than it is in say West Africa.

We are really in the "banter" zone but I find this stuff interesting to ponder.

Oh. I didn’t think you were hinting at superior morality. This is simply my theory/opinion given the current state of affairs. While it is in our nature to prolong our lives and keep ourselves as young for as long as possible (as you say, what humans have done for centuries)...the motive, thesedays, is more about the money then at any other point in human history. There is too much cash at stake to cure this disease or reduce the impact of that disease, the first to a covid vaccine, etc. 

A family member works for a big consulting firm who consulted a big pharma corp with how to market opiates. They knew the danger of addiction and death but it was all about the bottom line. That’s just one example and maybe that has skewed my opinion but I’ve read more reports/articles indicating how the medical industry is a profit machine first and foremost. The well-being of society is secondary, sadly.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Purely curious, in those comparisons is there a modifier that accounts for change in health care, living conditions, etc?  I could certainly see past pandemics hitting those groups harder.

Have people been claiming this one was worse in those age groups?

The flu is much deadlier for kids than COVID. Stats show this. 

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Phin has nicely adapted to some of the ball busting and side humor of this forum. I feel like the people in the MA hated us for that reason....felt it was a "boys club." I'm sorry people felt that way, but a lot of us have gotten to know each other. Until recently, we met up at bars, had some drinks and laughs...and weenied out to the Kocin book. Maybe it was the angst from all those years of New England getting snow, but it's a good forum with good people here. 

The MA forum will always be home to me but I like it here. We spar and joke and disagree but I like how we can set that aside to enjoy our wx weenie passion together. I’d grab a beer with any of you. 

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A couple of weeks old, but there is a theory (not a study) that mask wearing may act as a quasi-vaccine.    Interesting 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200909/could-your-mask-be-a-kind-of-vaccine-against-covid-19

Similar articles abound. 
original NEJM article. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

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https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/

The table below shows confirmed cases of COVID-19 reinfection. The first confirmed case of reinfection was reported in Hong Kong on August 24, and six others were reported later that week. Earlier cases of suspected reinfection could not be confirmed due to a lack of data.

People with SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, may continue to test positive for several months without being sick or infectious. A reinfection is confirmed when testing shows each virus’ genetic makeup is different to a degree which cannot be explained through in-vivo evolution.

For a timeline with detailed information about each case, scroll down.

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