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Baroclinic Zone

Fall Banter and General Discussion

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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm guessing 50% of remaining independent bars and restaurants go under this winter.   Sad but true.

Restaurant business is a toss up in the best of times. This will be a death blow for many places.

You are even seeing a lot of popular places going under.

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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Restaurant business is a toss up in the best of times. This will be a death blow for many places.

You are even seeing a lot of popular places going under.

This decade is going to be a huge stress on our economy, post pandemic, as automation becomes a bigger factor...vaporizing a good chunk of low wage jobs and accelerating our wealth inequality. 

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41 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Restaurant business is a toss up in the best of times. This will be a death blow for many places.

You are even seeing a lot of popular places going under.

Yeah restaurants are like humans with pre-existing conditions... doesn’t take much to push them over the edge.  I’m always surprised at how many restaurants that seem “popular” but yet still struggle mightily and even close in normal times.  Some areas it seems the restaurants turn over every 5 years if they are independently owned and not an Applebee’s or Olive Garden type chain.

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This decade is going to be a huge stress on our economy, post pandemic, as automation becomes a bigger factor...vaporizing a good chunk of low wage jobs and accelerating our wealth inequality. 

Ya' a good old direct hit from an X class solar flare should level the automation playing field on planet Earth.  :o :P

I mean why not right?  DIT and others can wish for a 1938 Hurricane why can't I cheer on a Carrington type event?

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10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ya' a good old direct hit from an X class solar flare should level the automation playing field on planet Earth.  :o :P

I mean why not right?  DIT and others can wish for a 1938 Hurricane why can't I cheer on a Carrington type event?

I’m getting my carrier pigeons now. 

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8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm guessing 50% of remaining independent bars and restaurants go under this winter.   Sad but true.

Well, 60% don't survive their first year anyway and 80% close within 5 years.

But this situation is making things much much worse.   My favorite local place closed after 10 years...  sucks

 

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah restaurants are like humans with pre-existing conditions... doesn’t take much to push them over the edge.  I’m always surprised at how many restaurants that seem “popular” but yet still struggle mightily and even close in normal times.  Some areas it seems the restaurants turn over every 5 years if they are independently owned and not an Applebee’s or Olive Garden type chain.

This is totally different 

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8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This decade is going to be a huge stress on our economy, post pandemic, as automation becomes a bigger factor...vaporizing a good chunk of low wage jobs and accelerating our wealth inequality. 

Its definitely time for a total infrastructure overhaul. That will fill the gap with better paying jobs. Now that the military has been reinforced and we have gotten out of endless wars that extra money should be reinvested in our infrastructure.  Manufacturing of all the products and labor to install . Positive things can and should happen. We all hope we can turn the corner to better brighter days. 

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8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah restaurants are like humans with pre-existing conditions... doesn’t take much to push them over the edge.  I’m always surprised at how many restaurants that seem “popular” but yet still struggle mightily and even close in normal times.  Some areas it seems the restaurants turn over every 5 years if they are independently owned and not an Applebee’s or Olive Garden type chain.

Chain restaurants are the worst.  We're lucky to live in an area of the county where we have a breadth of local family owned restaurants.   

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met summer is over :cry: :cry: :cry: 

I cringe to think that within...well probably now gotta start carrying a sweatshirt around or at least have one on when leaving in the morning.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its definitely time for a total infrastructure overhaul. That will fill the gap with better paying jobs. Now that the military has been reinforced and we have gotten out of endless wars that extra money should be reinvested in our infrastructure.  Manufacturing of all the products and labor to install . Positive things can and should happen. We all hope we can turn the corner to better brighter days. 

Have we?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/world/middleeast/us-troops-deployments.amp.html

But I agree with the theory (I’ve been pounding the table to stop wasting tax payer money overseas)...I just don’t trust our government to reduce military spending and re-investing domestically instead. We love to dictate to the world how they should operate but fail take care of our own issues. Big corps, government...it’s the all the same greedy corrupt people. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its definitely time for a total infrastructure overhaul. That will fill the gap with better paying jobs. Now that the military has been reinforced and we have gotten out of endless wars that extra money should be reinvested in our infrastructure.  Manufacturing of all the products and labor to install . Positive things can and should happen. We all hope we can turn the corner to better brighter days. 

Overhauling the infrastructure and actually investing in combating climate change are no brainers.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Overhauling the infrastructure and actually investing in combating climate change are no brainers.

Apparently that is very difficult for our some of politicians to understand and implement. 

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21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Have we?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/world/middleeast/us-troops-deployments.amp.html

But I agree with the theory (I’ve been pounding the table to stop wasting tax payer money overseas)...I just don’t trust our government to reduce military spending and re-investing domestically instead. We love to dictate to the world how they should operate but fail take care of our own issues. Big corps, government...it’s the all the same greedy corrupt people. 

Self investment, absolutely. Revised/additional color neutral hat slogan MAGAMA (Make America Great At Manufacturing Again) As always .....

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1 minute ago, rclab said:

Self investment, absolutely. Revised/additional color neutral hat slogan MAGAMA (Make America Great At Manufacturing Again) As always .....

Only way to do that is by penalizing companies from moving their production plants overseas. Otherwise, what incentive do they have when profit rules the day? Now...add in automation on top of it and it’s lights out. New slogan ‘Made in America...by Machines.’

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah restaurants are like humans with pre-existing conditions... doesn’t take much to push them over the edge.  I’m always surprised at how many restaurants that seem “popular” but yet still struggle mightily and even close in normal times.  Some areas it seems the restaurants turn over every 5 years if they are independently owned and not an Applebee’s or Olive Garden type chain.

They have thin margins and require good management. There are many stories of packed restaurants with great reviews that still somehow end up underwater and forced to close because the management was not watching supplies, pay for employees, taxes, fees, etc. It's a very tricky business.

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I was looking at the unemployment numbers in New England. Didn't realize how bad it is in VT. Every category has had some pretty big job losses. Leisure and hospitality has a 46.5% job loss compared to July 2019. Construction is down 31.6%. 

How bad is it up there considering a huge portion of the jobs there are leisure and hospitality? Isn't that sector most of the economy up there? 

 

http://www.vtlmi.info/press.pdf

Screenshot_20200901-093739_Drive.jpg

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man...I'm loving how this thread has kicked off. This is some excellent discussion/information. See what happens when y'all can be nice and civil :D 

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Have we?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/world/middleeast/us-troops-deployments.amp.html

But I agree with the theory (I’ve been pounding the table to stop wasting tax payer money overseas)...I just don’t trust our government to reduce military spending and re-investing domestically instead. We love to dictate to the world how they should operate but fail take care of our own issues. Big corps, government...it’s the all the same greedy corrupt people. 

10 19 19? Check again. The world depends on US unfortunately to be oversight. Otherwise there are bad actors ready to pounce. Thats a reality many don't understand but at least we are pulling out of the thousand year tribal wars. I remain confident things will improve step by step. Obviously the world suffered a huge Covid setback and the climb out will take time. Will the USA ever be Utopia, probably not but its better than many alternatives. Much work needs to be done and it starts with jobs and equal opportunity for all. 

 

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1 hour ago, BrianW said:

I was looking at the unemployment numbers in New England. Didn't realize how bad it is in VT. Every category has had some pretty big job losses. Leisure and hospitality has a 46.5% job loss compared to July 2019. Construction is down 31.6%. 

How bad is it up there considering a huge portion of the jobs there are leisure and hospitality? Isn't that sector most of the economy up there? 

 

http://www.vtlmi.info/press.pdf

Screenshot_20200901-093739_Drive.jpg

Awful,  some here were saying that once spring was over things would drastically improve.  Horrible for VT

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

PSA...Don’t forget to vote today. 

Saw the in person polls in Mass are doing great. No reason not to vote in person at all if you are physically able. 

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manufacturing in the US looks completely different than it did 50-75 years ago, on-shoring manufacturing jobs is a political trojan horse IMO. As referenced, highly automated requiring a much higher vocational skill set than was the case two generations ago. Just look at mini-mills

As an aside, I have told this story a bunch, skiing a few years back in MWV, probably at wildcat, and struck up with a local machine tool cos. owner who seemed to have a nice success business. Told me he was paying a competitive hourly wage, guaranteeing 10 hours of OT minimally a week, plus full benefits including savings plan and he couldn't find help b/c job applicants couldn't pass the urine test. He had got to the point where he was interviewing, asking them point blank their habits, suggesting they stay clean for a month and come back and they had a job...none of them ever showed back up. I was relating this story to a friend who runs HR for a big cos. in NH lakes region, they confirmed saying they had recommended no drug test due to lack of applicants. 

A big issue in our economy is the mismatch of skills. Want to have a job, become a certified welder.

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11 minutes ago, Angus said:

manufacturing in the US looks completely different than it did 50-75 years ago, on-shoring manufacturing jobs is a political trojan horse IMO. As referenced, highly automated requiring a much higher vocational skill set than was the case two generations ago. Just look at mini-mills

As an aside, I have told this story a bunch, skiing a few years back in MWV, probably at wildcat, and struck up with a local machine tool cos. owner who seemed to have a nice success business. Told me he was paying a competitive hourly wage, guaranteeing 10 hours of OT minimally a week, plus full benefits including savings plan and he couldn't find help b/c job applicants couldn't pass the urine test. He had got to the point where he was interviewing, asking them point blank their habits, suggesting they stay clean for a month and come back and they had a job...none of them ever showed back up. I was relating this story to a friend who runs HR for a big cos. in NH lakes region, they confirmed saying they had recommended no drug test due to lack of applicants. 

A big issue in our economy is the mismatch of skills. Want to have a job, become a certified welder.

There is plenty of work out there, you just have to want to do it. Many don't. A lot of kids from the middle class don't even work in HS anymore. When I was in HS, we all worked part-time jobs. You had to make money somehow.

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

They have thin margins and require good management. There are many stories of packed restaurants with great reviews that still somehow end up underwater and forced to close because the management was not watching supplies, pay for employees, taxes, fees, etc. It's a very tricky business.

Yeah for sure.  That entire industry is incredibly tough.  No on is getting rich off a restaurant it seems.  When I go home to visit my parents in Albany, they are always talking about a new restaurant to try out that is located in the same buildings as the ones that failed before, it's almost comical at times.  Like oh that building was an Italian restaurant for 4 years then went under, then someone thought they could make a run of it as a Thai restaurant and then it lasted 2.5 years, and now there's a BBQ style joint in there, etc.

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2 hours ago, BrianW said:

I was looking at the unemployment numbers in New England. Didn't realize how bad it is in VT. Every category has had some pretty big job losses. Leisure and hospitality has a 46.5% job loss compared to July 2019. Construction is down 31.6%. 

How bad is it up there considering a huge portion of the jobs there are leisure and hospitality? Isn't that sector most of the economy up there? 

 

http://www.vtlmi.info/press.pdf

Screenshot_20200901-093739_Drive.jpg

I feel like a lot of people are just "floating" right now without a job and exhausting every last source of credit they have, which gives the impression that all is well, but the huge crash is coming soon. There is a lag effect at work.

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