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Hurricane Marco

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41 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Cuba radar shows the developing eyewall.

Cuba radar

I just got power back after ten days in the dark, following the historic Iowa derecho, so it's nice to be able to follow some tropical action again. Storm threading the needle through the Yucatan channel per Cuba radar is not what many models predicted initially.

 

Feel for you.  Was  only out about 4 hours here that evening.  Gonna be a very interesting and perhaps historic time watching the tropics as we move into the coming week.  

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Why does NHC think Marco is going to strength further with the shear?

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula,
and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the
central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Is the shear going to move away from the storm? I was under that impression.

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1 minute ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Why does NHC think Marco is going to strength further with the shear?

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula,
and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the
central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Is the shear going to move away from the storm? I was under that impression.

Also it’s almost cleared the Yucatán it’s well East moving NNW.  It’s practically on the western tip of Cuba.  Guess they should update further? 

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That shear is forecast to decrease and retreat north as the UT weakens and retrogrades. The question is where will the storm be at that time- the weaker it gets the more westward it will go and get sheared even more but if it can stay stronger a bit longer it may go on a more northerly path and stay in a lighter shear area. Not saying it will be that big of a deal but it may not totally be "ripped to shreds" either. 

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7 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Why does NHC think Marco is going to strength further with the shear?

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula,
and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the
central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Is the shear going to move away from the storm? I was under that impression.

The shear won't move away, and Marco's small size makes it more susceptible to the negative impacts of shear, so its quite surprising they think it will continue to strengthen

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Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Reconnaissance data, geostationary and microwave satellite imagery,
and radar data from Cuba all indicate that Marco is strengthening
quickly this morning.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 69 kt, and there were
several SFMR measurements of 50-55 kt to the northeast of the
center.  These data support raising Marco's initial intensity to 55
kt, and the central pressure based on dropsonde data has fallen to
992 mb.  The crew on the plane reported the formation of a partial
eyewall, which agrees with what we've seen on recent microwave and
radar images.

The track forecast has been complicated by the fact that the plane
has fixed Marco's center to the east of the previous forecast
track, and that makes the current motion north-northwestward, or
340/10 kt.  The subtropical ridge currently located over the
southwestern Atlantic is forecast to build westward along the
northern Gulf Coast during the next few days, and this expanding
ridge is expected to push Marco northwestward and then eventually
westward while the cyclone moves across the Gulf of Mexico.  This
general thinking has not changed, but the adjusted initial position
ended up shifting the track guidance to the north and east on this
cycle.  In response, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
eastward and northward during the first 3 days and is generally
between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.

Marco has finally tapped into the favorable conditions over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone's overall small size and
small radius of maximum winds makes it susceptible to quick changes
in intensity. The tropical storm is just beginning to move into a
higher zone of shear to its north, but conditions should remain
conducive enough for Marco to intensity to a hurricane during the
next 24 hours. After that time, southwesterly shear is expected to
increase over 20 kt by day 2 and then over 30 kt by day 3, and those
conditions, along with the cyclone's small size, should cause
weakening as Marco gets closer to the central and northwestern Gulf
coast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased during
the first 2 days and lies above the HCCA/Florida State
Superensemble solutions but below the SHIPS/LGEM scenarios. The
intensity forecast comes back in line with the previous forecast by
day 3 during the expected weakening phase, and Marco is ultimately
expected to dissipate over Texas by the end of the forecast period.

The updated track forecast suggests that watches could be required
for a portion of the central Gulf Coast later today.

Key Messages:

1. Marco is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, and tropical storm
conditions are expected over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in extreme western Cuba.  Heavy rainfall is also
expected in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana
Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in
flash flooding.

2. Marco is expected to move across the central Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane Sunday and approach the central Gulf Coast on Monday.
There is an increasing risk of impacts from storm surge, winds, and
heavy rainfall from the upper Texas coast to Louisiana early next
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Marco, as
storm surge, tropical storm, and/or hurricane watches could be
issued later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 20.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 22.1N  86.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 23.9N  87.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 25.6N  88.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 27.2N  89.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 28.5N  91.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 29.1N  93.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 29.3N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Time to change the thread name to Marco instead of TD14. Who would have guessed that would be on the verge of hurricane status today after the it looked so messy yesterday.

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9 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Time to change the thread name to Marco instead of TD14. Who would have guessed that would be on the verge of hurricane status today after the it looked so messy yesterday.

The environment has been conducive. Being on the cusp of hurricane status isn’t too much of a surprise to me. It was in the NHC forecast after all. Let’s see where intensification ends though...

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still has a 24 hour window per NHC before things become less favorable.

Considering how small Marco is, the shear will tear him to pieces. I would be surprised if it regains hurricane strength, if it even makes it to hurricane strength tonight.

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1 minute ago, Joseph Torre said:

Considering how small Marco is, the shear will tear him to pieces. I would be surprised if it regains hurricane strength, if it even makes it to hurricane strength tonight.

It may well be a hurricane on this next center pass. As @Cheeznado explained, the track and slow retreat of the heaviest shear should give this a window for additional intensification. Not all the way to the coast though. 

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Just now, NavarreDon said:

Not the best with models but it looks like the 12Z GFS is initializing with Marco @ 1005. Will this cause issues with the whole run?


.

Idk but it has it maintain intensity all the way through landfall if not deepen a bit. That would be interesting...

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that certainly differs from the NHC track. 

Seems like the globals have been struggling mightily with these two systems. Just leaves a ton of uncertainty on track and intensity.

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Seems like the globals have been struggling mightily with these two systems. Just leaves a ton of uncertainty on track and intensity.

Globals are a hot mess right now regardless.

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Globals are a hot mess right now regardless.

This is a fun track. Watching the environment and in-situ obs with little to no backup. :lol:

Too bad both are going to make landfall and people need actual confidence in the forecast.

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21 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Not the best with models but it looks like the 12Z GFS is initializing with Marco @ 1005. Will this cause issues with the whole run?


.

Louisiana in the cross hairs for both Marco and Laura on that run.  

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is a fun track. Watching the environment and in-situ obs with little to no backup. :lol:

Too bad both are going to make landfall and people need actual confidence in the forecast.

Like forecasting in the 60's when real men drew the charts lol.  I'm already half way through my case of popcorn.  Lights are flashing, take your seats for Act II ;)

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