wizard021

Looks like tomorrow in eastern NC looks to get wild. https://gyazo.com/9dd164ff286dd168c1f4ac81a43ddf83

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/SPC/2010/2010042506_024_ptsvr.png Good analog http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2010/us0424.php Based on all the 500 mb maps off the past 15 years , this is the best analog and it is 3rd in CIPS for tomorrow (yazoo city).

Messy .

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014/us0428.php You want broad trough , not a compact ejecting upper low. Look for waves to rotate around the trough to spark an outbreak. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2011/us0427.php Look for s/w rotating around broad trough axis. Tomorrow's system is a southern stream upper low that remains an upper low and not broad. In the back of your head you should look for what can go wrong. Typically wind fields will be veer back veer, or speed of the system is not ideal. Also usually cloud cover with these southern stream vorts doesn't allow sufficient build up of 03 km cape. https://gyazo.com/4e21b68ed657c4990f86f67510a89971 Veer back veer noted around 2 -3 km . Summary looks for storms to be on going in morning, but move north of the warm front. Storms should take off after 23z Se arkansas and move quickly east in a messy band into north Alabamy overnight. 1 or 2 tornadoes and swaths of wind are likely. Hail generally under 2.5 inches.

However a localized notable event can occur .

Rule of thumb .. closed upper lows that close in the west and then move east are never historic outbreaks . There is always some issue that prevents it . Systems that eject and then close off near the wark sector result in outbreaks. Also broad troughs with no closed lows are preferred even more .

No. Messy storm mode with storms struggling . By dark 1 or 2 will get sustained and deliver bad results though.

Yazoo city messy storm mode likely. High risk unlikely. 1 or 2 qlcs embedded sup likely.

Models focus tornado risk mainly after dark.

Yes Thursday looks like the bigger day .

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=uv250 as modeled you will see a clustering of hail with large cape and lapse rates and 40 to 50kt 06km shear . Low level shear generally weak 850 to 700mb. Gfs and nam too fast as always.

If it speeds up the upper jet is fairly weak. The low level wind response will not result in a big outbreak. Ceiling is 10 percent locally in backed wind along wf.

Cmc very slow moving upper low and it arrives Wed night . This supports weak ll shear. Marginal slight risk warranted mainly for large hail.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140427_rpts.html https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2014/day1otlk_20140427_2000.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140427_rpts.html

April 27 2014 also had only 1 long tracker . The instability area was limited so many areas east were not going to get impacted.

There was a storm with maxed out rotation today. Today rivaled many high risk days including April 27 2014 ... its just the area is not populated .

Its an outlook, nobody cares . What happens is happening.

Should be rain soon in Brooklyn

Over to rain . It stuck to roads for a bit.

Back side will reform overnight with scattered echos.

I did think it would.

Yeh those areas were getting slammed all morning, banding stalled there for a while .

NAM 3km Model - Tropical Tidbits - Google Chrome (gyazo.com) Concerned about the warm layer by 17z.

Soundings suggest nyc turns to sleet at 12pm.