Jump to content

wizard021

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    413

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by wizard021

  1. wizard021
    No it is not at all, it is in good agreement with the gfs. The gefs gets precip .50 inch line more north but is in line with the gfs.
  2. wizard021
    1979 storm. This system has a little morre chance to bring heavy snowfall into se Mass, but the cutoff north will be big as shown on the gefs. http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/cartes/ncep/amer/1979021918.gif Watch how that progression is similar to the upcoming storm. I think the jackpot will be north of the 1979 storm, but south of the 2013 Feb storm. You will see Philly/ NYC jackpot. Just based on observations of the current storm and previous systems.
  3. wizard021
    Nah its over its just not hugging the coast like the 18z gfs and 12z euro ensembles. Mid Atlantic will jackpot including long Island on the wraparound
  4. wizard021
    leftward bias in surface cyclones.
  5. wizard021
    Ecmwf / eps 60 hr track of Laura and 3 members got it right. Most were not even close. It also had a debuckle tracking hurricane Irma west of Tampa , which also busted. The quality in important systems has been lacking.
  6. wizard021
    Was 150 miles too far west with Laura into Galveston. The eps and ecmwf have been garbage. Go with geps / cmc which have been most consistant benchmark/ se
  7. wizard021
    Pna is the issue here, enough of a weak neg nao/ 50/50 low is present. Pna is getting squished. Need better trends from the Gulf of Alaska low .
  8. wizard021
    Strong - nao / 50/50 block.. but the pna is getting beaten up and thus allows this to miss. Gut feeling mid atlantic gets a 6 to 12 type snow event, but cannot make it north of Phiiy.
  9. wizard021
    Well I am not telling everyone to disregard the NHC, it is just my personal preference to not listen to them. No hard feelings.
  10. wizard021
    115 kt fl wind = 100 to 105 kt at the surface. Cat 3 all likelyhood .
  11. wizard021
    High shear on approach to gulf coast and cooler waters will weaken this quick. Lili 2002 analog
  12. wizard021
    Icon and ukmet form the wave in the caribbean moving west.
  13. wizard021
    ukmet has a new td in 5 days.
  14. wizard021
    Gefs para is active
  15. wizard021
    Phase 8 to 1 then maybe cod which still could fire more storms. Ecmwf has 2 robust waves after laura and marco.
  16. wizard021
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml. next 2 weeks primed.
  17. wizard021
    No. Ukmet gfs match.
  18. wizard021
    Its neutral endo. People r drunk today.
  19. wizard021
    phase 8 to 1 is favorable. You get most hurricane in phases 8 to 2.
  20. wizard021
  21. wizard021
    Wrong . Phase 8 to 1. Look at the chart .98l is moving into a rising atmosphere not sinking . Don't focus on tutt lows they come and go and can act to enhance outflow.
  22. wizard021
    Dude get a clue there is always tutt lows . It is about how the systems interact with them. Mjo is phase soon.
  23. wizard021
  24. wizard021
    Gfs still makes landfall with future 98l in Brownsville with a cat 1?
  25. wizard021
    Could be , but with the amplified mjo moving in, have to think conditions will be as favorable as the other non gfs models have it.
×
×
  • Create New...