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wizard021

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Everything posted by wizard021

  1. wizard021
    Hope deblasio has enough crew working sanitation with all the covid to clean the highways. Otherwise nurses and docs will have a hard time getting to work Thursday, and they are needed big rn.
  2. wizard021
    Ukmet 20 inches plus nyc , all layers cold
  3. wizard021
    Nah its over its just not hugging the coast like the 18z gfs and 12z euro ensembles. Mid Atlantic will jackpot including long Island on the wraparound
  4. wizard021
    leftward bias in surface cyclones.
  5. wizard021
    Ecmwf / eps 60 hr track of Laura and 3 members got it right. Most were not even close. It also had a debuckle tracking hurricane Irma west of Tampa , which also busted. The quality in important systems has been lacking.
  6. wizard021
    Was 150 miles too far west with Laura into Galveston. The eps and ecmwf have been garbage. Go with geps / cmc which have been most consistant benchmark/ se
  7. wizard021
    Ukie trended east .
  8. wizard021
    Wrong cmc doesn't close the 500 like 00z . But it is noise at this point .
  9. wizard021
    Would love to see those gefs members over NJ. Move east . Some are really tucked in like the icon.
  10. wizard021
    Air temp 34 won't cut it. Plus 850s are hovering at 0c or above.
  11. wizard021
    500 mb continues to look like presidents day 1979.
  12. wizard021
    The cmc is really doing fine , must be upgraded .
  13. wizard021
    That's a blizzard for nyc , it really tucks in. All layers are cold, and we start the day in the teens on the euro high res.
  14. wizard021
    1979 presidents day 1 : http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1979&mm=02&dd=19&run=12 Both had a shitty pna , but strong nao and a very intense mid level low. That's what could happen , widespread mecs.
  15. wizard021
    Looking like president's day 1 http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1979&mm=02&dd=19&run=12
  16. wizard021
    Euro weakens enough confluence via height rises, and that is due to the Monday wave trailing slower, a euro bias in the sw.
  17. wizard021
    a lot of height rises , gona be a nuke inland.
  18. wizard021
    euro is amped
  19. wizard021
    Pna is the issue here, enough of a weak neg nao/ 50/50 low is present. Pna is getting squished. Need better trends from the Gulf of Alaska low .
  20. wizard021
    Strong - nao / 50/50 block.. but the pna is getting beaten up and thus allows this to miss. Gut feeling mid atlantic gets a 6 to 12 type snow event, but cannot make it north of Phiiy.
  21. wizard021
    Well I am not telling everyone to disregard the NHC, it is just my personal preference to not listen to them. No hard feelings.
  22. wizard021
    115 kt fl wind = 100 to 105 kt at the surface. Cat 3 all likelyhood .
  23. wizard021
    High shear on approach to gulf coast and cooler waters will weaken this quick. Lili 2002 analog
  24. wizard021
    Icon and ukmet form the wave in the caribbean moving west.
  25. wizard021
    ukmet has a new td in 5 days.
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