wizard021
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Everything posted by wizard021
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Really close on gfs wow.
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Pa Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm.
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- heavy rain
- wind event
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Monday could turn into a snow event, with the first one being a scraper.. more room to amplify the remnant cutoff low.
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Well I am not telling everyone to disregard the NHC, it is just my personal preference to not listen to them. No hard feelings.
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115 kt fl wind = 100 to 105 kt at the surface. Cat 3 all likelyhood .
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High shear on approach to gulf coast and cooler waters will weaken this quick. Lili 2002 analog
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Icon and ukmet form the wave in the caribbean moving west.
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ukmet has a new td in 5 days.
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Gefs para is active
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Phase 8 to 1 then maybe cod which still could fire more storms. Ecmwf has 2 robust waves after laura and marco.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml. next 2 weeks primed.
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No. Ukmet gfs match.
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Its neutral endo. People r drunk today.
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phase 8 to 1 is favorable. You get most hurricane in phases 8 to 2.
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Wrong . Phase 8 to 1. Look at the chart .98l is moving into a rising atmosphere not sinking . Don't focus on tutt lows they come and go and can act to enhance outflow.
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Dude get a clue there is always tutt lows . It is about how the systems interact with them. Mjo is phase soon.
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This is a classic s florida strike pattern. Trough split, allowing ridge to build explosively . Ecmwf has a phantom trough recurve like with Ike it showed.
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Gfs still makes landfall with future 98l in Brownsville with a cat 1?
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Could be , but with the amplified mjo moving in, have to think conditions will be as favorable as the other non gfs models have it.
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Ukmet is north , cmc is middle ground and gfs is furthest south. Gfs has been having wild swings on intensity from 00z to 06z to 12z.
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https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020081712/gem_shear_watl_29.png Light shear, mjo pulse, and warm waters will easily lead to a strengthening hurricane as depicted here. Gfs is tossed as of now.
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Cmc/Ukmet both north of the islands and intensifying toward south florida or keys.
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Based on the globals west path is likely, how far north initial movement tied to faster or slower formation. I am sticking with the Ukmet, likely north of islands and west track into florida as a cane.
