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wizard021

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Everything posted by wizard021

  1. wizard021
    Really close on gfs wow.
  2. wizard021
    Pa Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm.
  3. wizard021
    Monday could turn into a snow event, with the first one being a scraper.. more room to amplify the remnant cutoff low.
  4. wizard021
    Well I am not telling everyone to disregard the NHC, it is just my personal preference to not listen to them. No hard feelings.
  5. wizard021
    115 kt fl wind = 100 to 105 kt at the surface. Cat 3 all likelyhood .
  6. wizard021
    High shear on approach to gulf coast and cooler waters will weaken this quick. Lili 2002 analog
  7. wizard021
    Tornado tracking se of Kingston, NY very strong rotation.
  8. wizard021
    Mean looking couplet near Hobert NY
  9. wizard021
    Looks like a hail/ wind risk to me. I don't see much low level speed/directional shear... but i do see mid level speed/ directional shear and impressive lapse rates. We shall see how it evolves.
  10. wizard021
    Icon and ukmet form the wave in the caribbean moving west.
  11. wizard021
    ukmet has a new td in 5 days.
  12. wizard021
    Gefs para is active
  13. wizard021
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=uv200 the wind direction at 200 is southerly and in the same dir the storm is moving . This shows shear is in a favorable direction . The only detriment is speed shear . Cat 1 into Louisiana is a solid forecast. I expect continued up and downs in intensity as recon has showed so far.
  14. wizard021
    Phase 8 to 1 then maybe cod which still could fire more storms. Ecmwf has 2 robust waves after laura and marco.
  15. wizard021
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml. next 2 weeks primed.
  16. wizard021
    Further esst track yields parallel shear which is less hostile.
  17. wizard021
    No. Ukmet gfs match.
  18. wizard021
    Globals can't capture tiny marco well.
  19. wizard021
    It will spin up and down. Too much shear north of it. Tiny storms do that.
  20. wizard021
    Bombing out . 996mb . I was wrong .
  21. wizard021
    Marco is clearing the shear for Laura. Tstms dissolve upper troughs .
  22. wizard021
    I don't buy anything beyond a 45 mph system here.
  23. wizard021
    18z euro weaker.
  24. wizard021
    Looks to be popcorn storms that will die down. This one is not going to be that strong regardless with no model support other than cmc. Euro ensembles weak.
  25. wizard021
    Its neutral endo. People r drunk today.
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