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David Reimer

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About David Reimer

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  • Birthday 05/30/1991

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    Norman, OK
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    Storm Chasing, Social Media, and Freelance Videography

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  1. Irma has regained major hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of 115 MPH according to the National Hurricane Center. 2AM ET 9/21/17
  2. I’m surprised that the NWS PR office has managed to stay up this whole time. Obviously they’re running on generator, but I figured they would have lost comms.
  3. Don’t think I’ve seen that happen before. Huge props to the flight crew for making that happen. Certainly adds to the paperwork for them and could have just as easily ended the flight early.
  4. FWIW the OEW has shot off a few CGs over the last hour. As far as EWC goes Maria seems to be holding on fairly well. Not good for PR.
  5. Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway.
  6. To your credit Maria has not behaved as one would expect. I didn't think it would get its act back together so quickly this morning after moving back off-shore. Both Irma and Maria have demonstrated wacky/typhoon-like behavior.
  7. They're the weather channel, of-course they sent someone to PR. There are several storm chasers down there as well I'm sure. They know there is a high likelihood that they'll be there for an extended period. The footage should be spectacularly horrifying.
  8. IR looking an tad better over the last hour with cooler cloud tops wrapping by back around in the northern and northwestern sections of Maria. Eye looking decent as well. I doubt winds are actually remotely near 155 MPH right now, but wouldn't be shocked to to see them respond back up into high-end cat 4 later this morning if pressures can fall back into the lower 930s. An ERC would put a halt to that. Longer we can hold off an ERC probably the better for PR. Hopefully we can time this to where it's undergoing an ERC at lndfall versus coming out of one and into a strengthening phase. Either way PR is screwed by wind and prolific rains in the coming days.
  9. Wouldn't it be something if it just started right back up right where it left off? Latest vortex reported a 12 NM closed circular eye. Almost makes me wonder if the island's interaction may have 'helped' Maria to avoid an ERC by causing a temporary disruption and helping the eye get a tad bigger. Just speculation and absolutely no meteorological basis to that speculation, but what a fascinating storm to watch.
  10. At this juncture, I'd say the Dominica impact on Maria will be short-term - as in it won't matter in a couple of hours. If anything this may allow Maria to organize again overnight and into Tuesday morning. It maintained a well-defined inner core and that core is showing some signs of organization over the last 45 minutes. Maria continues to be a major hurricane and will remain that way for the next several days. Preparations on the Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico should be rushed to completion. I'd expect far more substantial impacts in PR - including San Juan - from Maria then what they experienced from Irma. Don't get bogged down on these short-term intensity fluctuations because conditions are quite favorable for Maria to be one bad sucker through the late week.
  11. Yes, a small vortex/eyewall directly interacting with rugged terrain, even over a landmass as small as Dominica is disruptive. Not surprising to see the pressure rebound. With the eyewall completely back over water now, looking closed and still very organized, there will probably be a leveling off of the current pressure rise. But I would still expect a delay before any reintensification and deepening. Tough to forecast that. Will likley remain at least a Category 4 over night however. It may make another run at Cat 5 given the outstanding upper environment over the next day or two. Indeed. I wonder if this land interaction may help promote an ERC - as the eye was already fairly small - or if this temporary weakening might actually delay an ERC with the current eye perhaps taking additional time to organize. It's over bathwater and based on Harvey and Irma - I've pretty much come to accept the unexpected is probable, so who knows. Small cores like Irma have been torn to shreds with land interaction, but it is 2017... Anyway, GOES 16 1 hr data shows the eye looking more circular, defined, and comparatively larger on IR (band 13) compared to an hour ago. Cloud tops surrounding the eye are warmer (-65 to -75C versus the -80 earlier) and noticeably warmer in the NW quad. If recon confirms the pressure rises have stopped I'd watch out since this thing could get itself energized again in a hurry. For those wanting an awesome site for data - check out the RealEarth site from the University of Wisconson. 1-minute data from GOES 16 for Maria is available under the mesoscale sector #2 - band #13 (enhanced color) - http://re.ssec.wisc.edu/. You'll want to use band #2 once we get back to daylight conditions. EDIT: IR showing +12C temperature in the eye compared to about +1C an hour ago. Let's see if recon will make another pass through, but I would at least expect to see no additional pressure rises, and wouldn't be shocked to see it a tad lower. Let's watch it over the next hour or two to get a 'trend' set on it being steady-state or resuming an intensification trend. Regardless I'd expect winds to have come down fairly substantially for now in response to the land interaction. If pressure starts falling those winds will probably ramp back up in a hurry.
  12. It'll be interesting to see how Maria does now that it is back over the water. Such small cores can be impacted significantly by land interaction - hence the ~20 MB rise in a relatively short period. However, they can also get their act together in a hurry if the land interaction wasn't too damaging to the inner core - which I'm not sure it was based on the fact it only spent a few hours over land. We'll probably find out over the next two hours what the speed for any intensification might be.
  13. Did you forget to take your medicine that keeps your ego in check? Take a chill pill. GOES 16 has proven mighty useful this year. Already has paid for itself with the valuable data collected from Harvey, Irma, and now Maria. It is collecting one minute snapshots. The loops will be amazing!
  14. Most of the time, but not with an RIing system.
  15. That discussion had many similarities to the 10 PM CT of Wilma a few hours before the special 2 AM advisory. One for the books.