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David Reimer

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About David Reimer

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  • Birthday 05/30/1991

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Norman, OK
  • Interests
    Storm Chasing, Social Media, and Freelance Videography

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  1. Well, that was a rather interesting last two hours in D/FW...
  2. David Reimer

    2013 El Reno Tornado

    No scale will ever be perfect. The wind measurements for a couple tornadoes were taken into account in the original surveys done by the TOP and OUN offices for Bennington v1 and the 2013 El Reno (respectively). It was a blanket-NOAA mandate from the higher-ups that reversed those decisions. It was made policy that only damage indicators (DIs) could be used to rate tornadoes. The EF-scale is a damage-based rating scale. In that sense, the scale is doing what its designed. Very good explanation! Anyway, there are plenty of folks unhappy that in-situ observations from mobile radars and mesonets (looking at you OK Mesonet) are not able to be used to rate tornadoes. A committee is underway containing the best from various fields to create a new scale. Tim Marshall is among those on that committee. Last I heard, which was back in February, it sounds like the new scale should be ready around 2022. I know they're looking to update several of the DIs as they've found some flaws in the EF-scale DI numbers, plus new DIs they didn't think of back in the 2000s. I've come to accept the current EF-scale as a 'damage scale' versus a tornado intensity scale. It does that job fairly well. Do violent tornadoes get rated EF0-EF2/EF-U? Absolutely! The Tescott, KS (2018/05/01) tornado was rated an EF-3 by the NWS Topeka with the wording in their original PNS saying "The longer-track, violent tornado...". Another example is the Dimmitt, TX wedge (2017/04/14) where multiple significant tornadoes occurred, but only one produced ratable damage (EF-3). I was present for both of the aforementioned days and can confirm both featured rather pissed-off tornadoes. Here is a part of the PNS (Public Information Statement) for the Dimmitt, Texas tornado event from April 14, 2017 (NWS LUB). While the lack of DIs precluded the rating of all but one of the tornadoes, the NWS LUB acknowledges the tornadoes that did occur likely were rather potent. Even on the rated-tornado (an EF-3), they hint the tornado was likely stronger/capable of producing higher DIs during its peak intensity. Something introduced in the last couple of years has been the EF-U rating. Not all offices have used it, but OUN certainly seems to since 2016. They'll assign that rating to tornadoes that don't produce damage but were confirmed visually by spotters/chasers/law enforcement/granny with a camera phone. EF-U stands for Unknown. I still chuckle when I hear EF-U mentioned
  3. David Reimer

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    06Z HRRR shows a fairly volatile setup across Central Kansas by the late afternoon and early evening. It fires up a line of pearls from southern Nebraska to within about 40 miles of Oklahoma. I have concerns over LCL heights during the 4-5PM timeframe with dewpoint spreads approaching 20 degrees in some spots, especially closer/north of I-70. I'm also a little leery of the HRRR over-doing dews a tad bit after yesterday. That said, it looks like we should be rocking and rolling by 6 PM with impressive low-level shear and plenty of instability. Will be leaving OUN around 11 AM with an initial target zone of Great Bend. Going to likely play on any southern storms that manage to fire and hopefully avoid the mega chaser hoards closer to Interstate 70 and points north.
  4. David Reimer

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Will be chasing tomorrow in the Texas Panhandle if it looks like we can get sustained CI. Same area on Tuesday into western Oklahoma if CI looks possible, otherwise a trip up into KS (yuck) will be warranted. Still too soon to tell on Wednesday and Thursday, but I'm not that thrilled about either day at this point. The last several years have proved time and time again that 'good looking' setups often go to crap in a basket. Tomorrow (Monday) reminds me a bit of 4/14/17 in terms of the moisture and low-level wind fields. CI is the main question at this point, but a 'Caprock Magic' scenario certainly is possible. I'll be out there if it looks like we can get CI. Storms in progress this evening in the western Panhandle could easily leave boundaries for tomorrow.
  5. Agreed. The QLCS in East Texas has been more impressive.
  6. Mmmm we'll see what the report/probability map looks like after damage surveys are complete.
  7. Assuming most occurred in the higher tornado probabilities that will certainly verify the level four risk SPC had out for today.
  8. Chasing fast-moving tornadoes in mountains and tall trees? Heh. I can think of better ways to spend my day, and I live less than three hours from the I-49 tornado's location. The northern end of the risk certainly busted that small 10% they had, but the hail/wind verified to at least some extent. The southern end? Eh, we'll see what the report map looks like once any surveys are complete. There were certainly more than two tornadoes and at least one of them was capable of producing EF2+ damage. The watch itself verified probability wise. As for the outlook's probabilities - we still have to get through the night.
  9. NOAA P3 confirms tornado in progress on the storm west of Monroe. The KULM radar in Monroe (academic radar) looking impressive.
  10. This evening's 0Z NAM, 3KMNAM, and GFS indicate the potential for a significant ice storm across parts of the Big Country, Northwest Texas, into portions of Oklahoma. I haven't looked farther north/east. I wouldn't be surprised to see some winter storm watches (prelude to any ice storm warnings) in the Tuesday morning packages.
  11. I'm getting pictures of accumulating sleet and light snow on cars and elevated objects in North Dallas and up in McKinney (380/75 area). Minor accumulations, but enough to keep roads wet. Wet roads with temperatures falling into the mid-20s in the next few hours could cause a flash-freeze (similar to what happened in BHM and ATL a few years back). That's my big worry for the next few hours. Anything that falls, even with surface temperatures below freezing, will probably melt as it hits surface roads and bridges. Soil temperatures are still around 40 degrees. That sleet/snow melts and makes the roads wet. Once surface temperatures fall to 25-26 degrees (or lower) those wet spots could easily flash-freeze into pure ice, especially on bridges and elevated roadways (which D/FW does not have a shortage of).
  12. D/FW is going to have some really big problems if that sleet doesn't stop in the next hour. Lots of pictures coming in showing wet roads (since sleet/snow melting on contact). All that is going to flash-freeze once we get into the middle 20s, which is only 2-3 hours away.
  13. The HRRRx (the HRRR experimental version) has done well in the past; so it is definitely worth watching as we get in operational range of the current HRRR. Remember that with surface temperatures falling into the 20s it won't take much precipitation to cause major travel problems. I'm also concerned with the potential for enhanced sleet bands across South-Central Texas. Some models have been hitting Austin and San Antonio pretty hard with sleet on Tuesday.
  14. David Reimer

    Hurricane Maria

    Irma has regained major hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of 115 MPH according to the National Hurricane Center. 2AM ET 9/21/17
  15. David Reimer

    Hurricane Maria

    I’m surprised that the NWS PR office has managed to stay up this whole time. Obviously they’re running on generator, but I figured they would have lost comms.