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David Reimer

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Everything posted by David Reimer

  1. An interesting fall severe weather setup. The kinematics are certainly going to be there, but the specific thermodynamic mix and surface features remain questionable. Certainly a beautiful upper-level system and a decent looking chance for at least two days of severe weather potential. Whether or not we end up with chaseable tornadic supercells before a mixed-bag of vomit thrown on the storm reports map (QLCS galore) will probably come down to the 'day of'.
  2. Insane pressure gradient with Sam. Goes from 942 millibars to 1000 millibars in 24 miles.
  3. You obviously have never been to the Middle or Upper Texas Coast if you think it is filled with 'rich peoples beach houses'. As for the fossil fuel infrastructure - are you out of your bloody mind? How much of an ecological disaster would unfold if we had those facilities taken out? The amount of chemicals spilled would be absolutely insane. I mean, they do a good enough job as it is with spilling something every other week. As for talking down Windspeed, who is a very long-time and knowledgeable poster, I would suggest you take that attitude and shove it back up to the Northeast weenie section. _______________________________ As for Nicholas, the wind element sure certainly seemed to overperform. Wind gusts were over 60 MPH observed at several sites in Houston with over 350,000 customers without power. Pretty impressive wind field for what I expected would be a relatively localized and limit wind threat. While the wind (and in some cases, surge) were impressive, the flooding threat has not. Looks like the HRRR was onto something when it kept a majority of the heavy rains off the Texas coast. Louisiana? Well, they may be in for another world of hurt in the flooding department.
  4. Surge and strong wind moving into Grand Isle: https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html
  5. P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,069m (10,069ft) We'll see if it is done intensifying. That is a strong temperature differential - often a sign of ongoing intensification.
  6. Another 'emergency scramble' from San Antonio and the 53rd after two return to base mechanicals. That is definitely a first - and while off-site too.
  7. Two USAF flights... both divert back to base. Perhaps the second one can jump in the 'first' aircraft and head back out. Either way, what the flipping flamingos is going on with the 53rd tonight. Thankfully, NOAA's P3 is airborne out of Tampa.
  8. NOAA's P3 will be up later this morning. They left early last night so they could get an earlier start today to be present during the storm's landfall. Pretty good flexibility of crews and the set schedules over the last day. Not often you see two air force aircraft in one system simultaneously (NOAA's P3 and the USAF plane being there together is regular)
  9. The plane will be in there within 30-40 minutes. Be happy the 53rd was able to scramble another aircraft so quickly. Otherwise, you'd be waiting another four hours for data.
  10. The USAF have launched an 'emergency replacement flight' to take the place of the earlier cancelled USAF mission. Aircraft has departed San Antonio and is enroute to Ida. Either that or the original aircraft's issue was quickly resolved. Regardless, commendations are in order for whoever made that happen. Not often you see a 'second' mission take off in place of the first.
  11. NOAA plane is departing and with the USAF aircraft OOS mechanical, we won't have recon back into Ida until 3 AM CT Sunday. What a wonderful time to have no recon in a system.
  12. I would expect a rather rapid rise in winds at some point this evening as pressures keep declining. We've seen that occur with multiple hurricanes in the past where it takes several hours for the winds to respond upward. It'll probably happen rather quickly too when it finally does. The expanding wind field is likely playing a part in delaying the uptick in wind speeds too.
  13. NOAA plane is doing a planned spiral ascent for some sort of research purpose. Once that is complete they'll head back down to 700 millibars and continue the recon mission.
  14. Will have to see what the dropsonde shows, but it looks like a 2 millibar drop in the last 70 minutes. The NOAA aircraft's pressure estimates are running a few millibars lower than the dropsonde's measurements (fairly normal). I'd expect around 971 millibars from the dropsonde based on the bias correction. EDIT: Looks like about 969.5 - 970 millibars on the dropsonde with the wind correction. About a 3 to 3.5 millibar drop in 70 minutes. Nice.
  15. Climbed to get over Cuba and will now monitor it as it comes off Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.
  16. NOAA HH dropped a dropsonde from around 400 millibars (24,000 feet ASL) and are now descending back to 700 millibars while circling. Killing time while the 'cane moves over the island? One of the weirder flights I've seen.
  17. Just climbed up to 23,000 feet ASL too. I wonder if they are experiencing an issue and are terminating the mission. (Yeah, I don't know what they're doing) I almost wonder if they're just going to drop high-level dropsondes for a while as Ida's core crosses over Cuba.
  18. The NOAA HH aircraft missed the center on their first pass. They scraped it, but had to do some last minute course deviations. (Terrain-related or something I'm sure). Anyway, 66 knot FL wind in the SE Quad.
  19. We have a banter thread for these insightful discussions
  20. I saw FL winds of 76 knots, but I'm a little weary of the SFMR data given the closer proximity to Cuba's shoreline. That being said, if it isn't there now - it probably will be sooner than later. It's a hurricane regardless.
  21. It would appear the 0Z Euro deterministic is on the eastern edge of its ensembles. Plenty take it into LA, but not as much of a shift east as I expected. Still going to have to keep an eye on the Upper Texas Coast.
  22. The morning ensembles from the European and GFS (EPS & GEFS) still show a wide window of possibilities, generally focused on northern Mexico to the Upper Texas Coast. It would appear the 12Z ECMWF was a distinct northern outlier, while the 18Z GFS is 'centered' off the ensembles. I'm not touching the intensity forecast yet, but as others have said, a large on-shore wind field suggests a considerable heavy rain threat well inland and the potential for a prolonged surge event. Of-course, that's all just heresy based on weather model voodoo. Let us see where trends proceed over the next couple of days.
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