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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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90-Degree Days during the next 10-day period:      GFS   6,     EURO   4,      GEM    2.  

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty good model agreement between the Euro and GFS. Looks like Quebec will be the place to avoid the heat. Probably some severe convection along the front when it eventually sags south.

 

150EBF54-D83B-41FB-A0D1-0A6C355E013E.thumb.png.afb6362917f4272099c6442c3865daa4.png

A094E14D-2782-44A9-ADAD-0F30D9BF32CF.thumb.png.9ae0891ccbd97df3e5fa63c61f7ca7e5.png


 

 

 

 

Heat’s not surging over top of this area anymore-aimed right at us unlike early summer. 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time this summer that the models are indicating that the Bermuda high will build westward into the Southeast. All our other 95° or greater major heat events had the high elongating toward New England with onshore flow. So this may be our first legit westerly flow heat event.

29F8A864-EED0-48CF-8143-69FBF72F04F6.thumb.png.0267498f4b6d7c36785afd17dad3b7d3.png

 

Does that mean more of a dry heat?

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Another short-lived cool shot is overspreading the region in the wake of the showers and thundershowers and moved across the area earlier today. Overnight, parts of the region could see their coolest readings so far this month. Noticeably warmer weather will likely arrive this weekend. Readings could approach or reach 90° in much of the region early next week.

Out west, extreme heat again prevailed in the Southwest. Select high temperatures included:

Blythe, CA: 116° (old record: 114°, 1973)
Death Valley, CA: 125° (tied record set in 2001)
Flagstaff: 89° (old record: 88°, 1928 and 1973)
Kingman, AZ: 107°
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 117° (old record: 116°, 2011)
Las Vegas: 113° (old record: 111°, 1937 and 1992)
Mesa, AZ: 112° (old record: 108°, 2019)
Needles, CA: 118° (old record: 117°, 2018)
Palm Springs, CA: 114°
Phoenix: 115° (old record: 113°, 1986)
Sacramento: 101°
Stockton, CA: 105°
Tucson, AZ: 111° (old record: 110°, 1915)
Yuma, AZ: 112°

Death Valley reached 125° or above for the fifth consecutive day. That further extended its August record streak. The previous August record of three days was set during August 11-13, 1933 and tied during August 6-8, 1998.

In addition, Phoenix has now registered a record-tying four consecutive days with temperatures of 115° or above for the second time this summer. No previous year had more than one such stretch.

Phoenix has an implied 98% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.5° - 96.9°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. Since recordkeeping began in August 1895, two years saw both July and August rank among Phoenix's 20 warmest months on record: 2007 and 2019. It is all but certain that 2020 will become the third such case.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +28.46. That was the highest SOI figure since April 2, 2018 when the SOI was +31.29.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.394.

On August 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.698 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.835.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

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8/19

ACY: 82
PHL: 81
BLM: 80
New Brnswck: 79
EWR: 78
TTN: 78
JFK: 76
TEB: 76
LGA: 76
NYC: 75
ISP: 73

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Clouds lingered loner today than expected like a dinner guest who wont leave.  

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time this summer that the models are indicating that the Bermuda high will build westward into the Southeast. All our other 95° or greater major heat events had the high elongating toward New England with onshore flow. So this may be our first legit westerly flow heat event.

29F8A864-EED0-48CF-8143-69FBF72F04F6.thumb.png.0267498f4b6d7c36785afd17dad3b7d3.png

 

Lower DT could allow for the highest temps of the season.  Lot of time to track .   Been tracking this possibility that heat out west is abnormally intense and it bleeds east peaking Wed  - Fri next week.  

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

Does that mean more of a dry heat?

euro has dewpoints in the 60s in nj/nyc, 70s on long island

sfctd.us_ne.png

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5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Lower DT could allow for the highest temps of the season.  Lot of time to track .   Been tracking this possibility that heat out west is abnormally intense and it bleeds east peaking Wed  - Fri next week.  

I will confidently take the under on that. It would have to be above 98 for that to happen and I don't see anything like that in the forecast.

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The next 8 days are averaging 81degs., or 6.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.7[77.5].       Should be about  +2.9[78.3] by the 28th.

90-Degree Days during next 10 days:     GFS 6,  EURO 2,  GEM 1--their Ensembles have none between them.

67*(73%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.         76* by 3pm.       Ran up to 84* by 5pm

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MPO finally ended their record above 50° streak. All the top 5 records are since 2012.

MOUNT POCONO   CLEAR     47  45  93 CALM   
Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 50 
for MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 63 2020-08-19
2 60 2019-08-23
3 48 2016-08-21
- 48 2008-08-12
4 45 2013-08-04
5 43 2012-08-18

 

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Good Thursday morning to all, 

Refreshingly cool mornings. Been fun.  Back to heat soon... "could" be 6 day heat wave beginning Saturday parts of ne NJ, lower Hud Valley, interior w CT portions of our forum. Marginal near 90F temps this weekend and interruptions by thunderstorms are possible Sunday-Tuesday, Thursday. Do think that ~95F heat likely for a day or so, probably restricted to next Wednesday or Thursday. HI near 100 on a couple of days, for now again, next Wed or Thu.

Convection: still small chancey WAA convection Friday night-Saturday, mainly NJ. 

Potential Topic is Sunday: Combination of EC modeled CAPE over 2000J, KI well up in the 30s, PWAT near 1.8", 15-25KT 700MB westerly flow, an approaching weakening 500MB short wave having lifted newd from the lower Miss Valley and something I missed yesterday, is an unexpectedly strong upper wind field; should allow for strong thunderstorms (a couple of episodes possible) Noon-10PM.  Best chance for pockets 2-3" of gusty storms seems to initially be NJ, but may shift northward to  se NYS-CT late in the day-evening. Also, I can see isolated SVR and an eventual marginal risk by SPC down here in the NYC forum.  No topic at this time for two reasons: Not sure we can squeeze 4" in 1 or 2 locations-for now probably not, and severe is not a lock since wind fields marginal. Still, am pretty sure golf and other outdoor activity will be interrupted by Tstorms sometime during the afternoon. 

Monday: a bit drier dew points but a surface trough and still sizable 1500+J CAPE and KI decent, should allow for isolated or scattered gusty thunderstorms.

Tuesday: I think conditions may be a bit more favorable for scattered afternoon thunderstorms but as of now...Sunday afternoon-evening is when I think the most important risk day, prior to the probable Thursday ish CFP which has less CAPE but the highest KI ribbon of the week, in addition to probably the hottest airmass of the week.

A note: Lower dew points on Wednesday the 26th along with warmer 500MB temps should preclude thunder from happening in our NYC forum area on Wednesday. Just hot.

Finally: the tropics. Not posting to the tropic page since they have it covered and am only looking on possible impacts here.  Not guaranteed, since tracking is part of the problem,  that two tropical systems will affect the Gulf Coast next week (Laura could still miss east of the Gulf Coast).  For our area, beginning Friday the 28th onward, I could see some sort of impact here. For now lets it keep it to some moisture since the general flow across the northern USA is westerly tending to shunt systems east or east northeast at our threat latitude (north of 35N). The upper level jet across NNE/Nova Scotia becomes favorable (RRQ). Long WAYS to go on this but it's not the same as ISAIAS. As of now, there is a much greater chance for a miss to the southeast of us, than the more favored trough-ridge pattern of the August 4. 810A/20

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68 off a low of 52 last night coolest in a while.  Today splendid day sunny and low 80s / low humdity.  Lows again tonight 50s inland.  Friday starts what should be a 9 day warm-up above to much above normal with potential record heat lumped in for a 2 day period. By Saturday the warmer spots will see 90s again after a 9 day reprieve.  Sunday pending on storms and associated clouds should get more 90s.    Heat dome still standing but trough pushing into the Pacific northwest will allow some weakness and eventual push east into the plains and with it the incrediblly strong heat will spill east into the plains, GL, MW and our area  within 5 - 6 days,

Mon (8/24) - Tue (8/25) : more 90s especially for the warmer spots but becoming more widespread as 850MB temps increase to >16c.  By Wed (8/26) - Fri (8/28) potential record heat with only clouds or tropical effects hindering upper 90s to above.    By next weekend (8/29) trough pushes into the region.  Beyond there WAR remains southeast of the region flexing west at times.  Rockies ridge boppping between AZ and KS.   Looking overall warm into the end of the month.

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I will confidently take the under on that. It would have to be above 98 for that to happen and I don't see anything like that in the forecast.

I would too, but potential exists with some guidance showing 850MB temps >18c between Wed and Fri.  Friday may be muddied up by tropical moisture.  Either way a hot week  looks likely starting this weekend before the next break towards next weekend (8/30/31)

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We have confirmed that an EF0 tornado touched down yesterday morning, August 19, just before 10AM in the Lincroft section of Middletown Township, NJ. See the Public Information Statement for more. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202008201508-KPHI-NOUS41-PNSPHI #NJwx

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 08/19/20 TORNADO EVENT...

.LINCROFT TORNADO...

START LOCATION...LINCROFT IN MIDDLETOWN TOWNSHIP, MONMOUTH COUNTY, NJ
END LOCATION...LINCROFT IN MIDDLETOWN TOWNSHIP, MONMOUTH COUNTY, NJ
DATE...AUGUST 19, 2020
ESTIMATED TIME...9:57 TO 9:59 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...70 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...1.21 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.3220/-74.1283
ENDING LAT/LON...40.3179/-74.1061
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

...SUMMARY...
A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON A BASEBALL FIELD ON THE CAMPUS OF 
BROOKDALE COMMUNITY COLLEGE IN THE LINCROFT SECTION OF MIDDLETOWN 
TOWNSHIP IN MONMOUTH COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. IT TOSSED A SET OF METAL 
BLEACHERS ADJACENT TO THE FIELD, THEN CROSSED OVER PHALANX ROAD INTO 
A RESIDENTIAL AREA, WITH NUMEROUS TREES SUSTAINING DAMAGE ON AND 
AROUND HICKORY LANE. TREE DAMAGE MAINLY CONSISTED OF BROKEN LIMBS 
AND THE SNAPPING OF SOME TREES NEAR THEIR TOPS. AT LEAST ONE TREE 
WAS ALSO UPROOTED IN THIS AREA. THE TORNADO CONTINUED A LITTLE SOUTH 
OF DUE EAST AND PASSED NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE SWIMMING 
RIVER RESERVOIR, CAUSING ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE. THE TORNADO THEN 
ENTERED ANOTHER RESIDENTIAL AREA NEAR SWIMMING RIVER ROAD AND 
NORMANDY ROAD, PRODUCING A CONTINUED PATH OF DAMAGED TREES. THE 
TORNADO LIFTED AS IT ENTERED THE RIVERDALE WEST PARK, WHERE TREE 
DAMAGE WAS NO LONGER OBSERVED. THE TORNADO DID NOT APPEAR TO CAUSE 
ANY DIRECT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE, THOUGH A COUPLE OF HOMES SUSTAINED 
DAMAGE FROM FALLING TREE DEBRIS. THE DEGREE OF DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT 
WITH AN EF0 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80 MPH AND A 
CONTINUOUS, RELATIVELY NARROW PATH OF AROUND 70 YARDS IN WIDTH. 
THANKFULLY, NO INJURIES OCCURRED AS A RESULT OF THIS TORNADO.  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE MONMOUTH COUNTY 
OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, NEW JERSEY STATE POLICE, AND LOCAL 
OFFICIALS WITH MIDDLETOWN TOWNSHIP FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN THIS 
SURVEY. THESE CONCLUSIONS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
SHOULD ADDITIONAL INFORMATION COME TO OUR ATTENTION.
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