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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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24 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

I call my grandmother Nana, she doesn't find it amusing there's a tropical storm named after her

At least your grandma isn’t dead like both of mine

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lol... We got Omar.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 012048
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Satellite images show that the system remains sheared with a
bursting pattern on satellite, occasionally exposing the center, 
and a large area of curved bands in the southeastern quadrant of 
the circulation. Almost all of the subjective and objective Dvorak 
estimates, along with SATCON values, are between 35 to 40 kt, and 
the lower number is chosen as the initial wind speed since 
scatterometer data suggests 30 to 35 kt.  This makes Omar the 15th 
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and is the 
earliest 15th storm on record, besting the previous mark by about 
a week from Ophelia of 2005. 

Any chance for strengthening should end by tomorrow afternoon due
to greatly increasing shear, and weakening is likely to commence by
then.  The persistence of the shear should cause the cyclone to
decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours, if not sooner.  No
significant changes were made to the previous forecast, which is 
near the model consensus.

The initial motion remains east-northeast or 065/13 kt.  The
cyclone is being steered by the northern side of the subtropical
ridge, which is forecast to cause a similar motion through tomorrow
and an eastward turn late week due to the orientation of the ridge.
The only notable change to the forecast is a slow down at long
range in most of the guidance, probably due to a shallow system
no longer feeling the stronger deep-layer winds, so the NHC track
prediction follows suit.  The remnant low should dissipate in 4-5
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 35.3N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 36.1N  69.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 36.7N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 37.2N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 37.2N  61.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0600Z 37.0N  59.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z 37.0N  57.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 39.5N  53.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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Really not seeing anything I'm that impressed with. Take away storms above  1000mb and we really don't have that many storms this season and none in upcoming model forecasts.

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Really not seeing anything I'm that impressed with. Take away storms above  1000mb and we really don't have that many storms this season and none in upcoming model forecasts.

We've already gotten 1 major storm. Shut up

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giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952df122f0f036dea5d6b

If the models were right and nothing spun up, some of y’all would call bust. 

Almost everything in the basin is spinning up, and some of y’all are calling bust.

Sorry you don’t have 8 majors or an entire metropolitan region wiped by the hand of God yet. I guess 15/4/1 will just have to do on this September 1. SeAsON FAiL

:lol: 

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What I'm saying is that 2005 was 12/5/3 on September 1. Save the outrageously rare phenomena of having not one but two long track majors in July, some of you would have been hating all the storms that developed that season too, save Katrina. We're lucky to get 40-50% of systems turn into eye candy in a given year. 

I'm not saying that this is the worst season ever, and I get that it's one thing to joke around, but I can't get how some have their expectations so out of whack with this season as to think it's a dud, given that it's objectively on par at this date with some of the biggest we've seen. Can we just let it play out through the peak at least? lol

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What I'm saying is that 2005 was 12/5/3 on September 1. Save the outrageously rare phenomena of having not one but two long track majors in July, some of you would have been hating all the storms that developed that season too, save Katrina. We're lucky to get 40-50% of systems turn into eye candy in a given year. 

I'm not saying that this is the worst season ever, and I get that it's one thing to joke around, but I can't get how some have their expectations so out of whack with this season as to think it's a dud, given that it's objectively on par at this date with some of the biggest we've seen. Can we just let it play out through the peak at least? lol

I’m not saying you’re wrong objectively. The season is very active. I am more commenting on the subjective experience that people tracking the tropics feel. I was getting good tingles preseason. If you had told me we’d be to Omar on 9/1 back in the Spring I’d have felt even more excited...but this season is smoking the boof so far. I want better satellite porn, recon that doesn’t turn around and can actually transmit data, daytime landfalls, a solid sub 930 Caribbean cruiser, some MDR threats to Bermuda, and one or two storms threatening Atlantic Canada and the northeast. Some of those will come but I also suspect we are cursed a little. 

we can  revisit after the secondary peak in October. I just hope you aren’t like “it’s 29/8/2...second best season ever”

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When a derecho outclasses every storm but one so far, yeah it's been pretty lacking quality wise (then again, that derecho was historic, but I digress).

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3 US hurricane landfalls (all strengthening on approach), one of the strongest storms to ever hit the US, and being on the “N” storm by September 1st sure doesn’t feel like a season bust!!!

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I’m not saying you’re wrong objectively. The season is very active. I am more commenting on the subjective experience that people tracking the tropics feel. I was getting good tingles preseason. If you had told me we’d be to Omar on 9/1 back in the Spring I’d have felt even more excited...but this season is smoking the boof so far. I want better satellite porn, recon that doesn’t turn around and can actually transmit data, daytime landfalls, a solid sub 930 Caribbean cruiser, some MDR threats to Bermuda, and one or two storms threatening Atlantic Canada and the northeast. Some of those will come but I also suspect we are cursed a little. 

we can  revisit after the secondary peak in October. I just hope you aren’t like “it’s 29/8/2...second best season ever”

I hear ya. I don’t think we get all of that this season but one can hope. It’s still so early. We gotta let it play out. 

I’m still very bullish but if we go 29/8/2 I won’t be on the historic season train. I’ll be busting out the @hlcater cereal for my avatar.

S0kGlAa.png

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What’s skewing the season so far, is the “Build Up.”

Anytime all the talk and hype precedes a season (be it hurricane or winter etc etc), it gets folks envisioning their wildest dreams with monster storms galore all over the place.  when that doesn’t happen/Or live up to the hype as they imagine it...well, you get the bust calls.  

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8 minutes ago, andyhb said:

When a derecho outclasses every storm but one so far, yeah it's been pretty lacking quality wise (then again, that derecho was historic, but I digress).

hi

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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Omar comin'  

 

14 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

A fish tropical storm gotta have a code

These two posts win the thread:lmao:

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12 minutes ago, andyhb said:

When a derecho outclasses every storm but one so far, yeah it's been pretty lacking quality wise (then again, that derecho was historic, but I digress).

Somebody measured a 25 mb pressure drop in 7 minutes in the derecho.  You don't even get that drop rate in the eyewall of most (if not all) hurricanes. :guitar:

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21 minutes ago, andyhb said:

When a derecho outclasses every storm but one so far, yeah it's been pretty lacking quality wise (then again, that derecho was historic, but I digress).

This is coming from  meteorologist, seriously? Were you expecting major hurricane in June or July?

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Anyway, there are a lot of impulses in the flow on the models. If they continue to struggle with TC genesis and some of these pop, it’ll be an active middle of the month. 

Edit: if shear can remain low these impulses will likely continue to find a more favorable environment west 60W with increased moisture and better OHC. 

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14 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Some of you people would find excuses to complain about 2005 if we were back then too

"lol Katrina only made landfall as a Cat 3! BUST!"

I am pretty consistent. I remember getting bashed because I thought Dennis was underwhelming. 

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7 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

This is coming from  meteorologist, seriously? Were you expecting major hurricane in June or July?

No, he just appreciates quality because he is Canadian and doesn’t have to swear fealty to the bud light 30 pack of hurricane seasons. 

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