yoda Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I thought there was specific criteria that has to be met. eta: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Weather Advisory " Winter Weather Advisory A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning. If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches). " Thanks and have a good day Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 never thought i'd see the day where someone complains about an advisory being issued. usually its everyone whining about when they get issued and how the snow depends on it. this place. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: never thought i'd see the day where someone complains about an advisory being issued. usually its everyone whining about when they get issued and how the snow depends on it. this place. Its the same person complaining about the advisory that posted the snow depth maps Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Interstate Posted January 17, 2020 NAM is going to make a couple more people happy. At least they will see some snow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Its the same person complaining about the advisory that posted the snow depth maps i know who it is yoda, i can read. 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chase Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: i know who it is yoda, i can read. 3 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2020 NAM 3k soundings are much more interesting on the 18z run vs 12z. 700mb frontogen is better over MD and there is strong vertical motion in the dendrite growth zone near 500mb. Warm layer near 850 still near freezing though. Big rimed conglomerates? 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: NAM is going to make a couple more people happy. At least they will see some snow. That initial wave seems very fast. Maybe an hour of snow for most. 3K still looks like a virtual non-event for almost all but maybe the northern tier. Of course, any little bit of ice can cause major problems on the roads. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 18Z 3K NAM WB Winter Precip Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowfan Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: NAM 3k soundings are much more interesting on the 18z run vs 12z. 700mb frontogen is better over MD and there is strong vertical motion in the dendrite growth zone near 500mb. Warm layer near 850 still near freezing though. Big rimed conglomerates? Still wouldnt be surprised if folks are pinging soon after initial flakes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baltimorewx Posted January 17, 2020 I think the key is going to be that initial band in the morning...hopefully its a solid 2-3 hour period of snow and drops a quick 1" or 2"..but on the other hand, my fear is that the air will be pretty dry and itll just be pixie dust Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowfan Posted January 17, 2020 Eric Horst's map seems realistic for the area. An inch (maybe 2) along the MD line then pingers. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Eric Horst's map seems realistic for the area. An inch (maybe 2) along the MD line then pingers. Cranky has 2-4" for the same areas. I think its possible to get up to 4" but it would be snow/sleet combined. Unless the NAM is right, then we are lucky to see an inch or so. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snowfan Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Cranky has 2-4" for the same areas. I think its possible to get up to 4" but it would be snow/sleet combined. Unless the NAM is right, then we are lucky to see an inch or so. I'll be in stewartstown tmrw, so hoping that's the case. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, snowfan said: I'll be in stewartstown tmrw, so hoping that's the case. youll be fine. will probably do better than me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
George BM Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I thought there was specific criteria that has to be met. eta: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Weather Advisory " Winter Weather Advisory A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning. If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches). " There is the potential for some ice accretion. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 133 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 MDZ503-504-VAZ028-030-031-052-053-501-502-505-506-WVZ052-053- 180245- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.200118T1200Z-200119T0000Z/ Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley-Jefferson- 133 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. Precipitation will begin as snow before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. Precipitation will change to rain late in the day. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. && $$ Hope that helps. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baltimorewx Posted January 17, 2020 Its already a win for me though, Baltimore County rec and parks cancelled all activities for tomorrow so no work for me 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 It's not all snow in the A.M. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scraff Posted January 17, 2020 I heard we had a winter event tomorrow. I stocked up. Anyone want to come over? Having a Fresca party... 5 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baltimorewx Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I heard we had a winter event tomorrow. I stocked up. Anyone want to come over? Having a Fresca party... Nice...Let me have that Devils Milk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: I heard we had a winter event tomorrow. I stocked up. Anyone want to come over? Having a Fresca party... Hate to see what happens to the lone can of Fresca when the door closes. I see a prison pounding in its future. 1 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
high risk Posted January 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's not all snow in the A.M. This is a good catch, but the idea of that initial band having some sleet in it is an outlier solution, and the associated forecast soundings have a warm layer that is just barely above freezing. Something to watch for in the evening runs, though. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted January 17, 2020 Hrrr tomorrow morning at 12z . On DC's nw lawn . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGolfBro Posted January 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr tomorrow morning at 12z . On DC's nw lawn . Now if we can just get that same look for 4-6 consecutive hours tomorrow morning we will be in business lol! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scraff Posted January 17, 2020 So all the fuss for a Saturday snow shower. OMG. 1 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Gfs a little drier, at least up my way Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: So all the fuss for a Saturday snow shower. OMG. This is the way it has been trending for days, unfortunately. I'd feel a lot better about it if the long range was still looking as promising as it was when this event started trending south, but we've even lost that now. I'm just hoping that initial band gives me a good hour or so of snow. Otherwise, I'm not expecting to see much other than a little sleet and a little rain. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 WB 18Z GFS Winter Precip maps. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scraff Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This is the way it has been trending for days, unfortunately. I'd feel a lot better about it if the long range was still looking as promising as it was when this event started trending south, but we've even lost that now. I'm just hoping that initial band gives me a good hour or so of snow. Otherwise, I'm not expecting to see much other than a little sleet and a little rain. Guess we better set a Saturday morning alarm. Don’t want to miss the last 15 minute snow event of January. Well...at least I always have my last can of Fresca to get me through this terrible time. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGolfBro Posted January 17, 2020 31/13. Bring on my .25 inches of precipitation and may it all be frozen! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
