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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Come to pappa ! The 22/23 timeframe, is going to be a big dog! That cold press on 0z GFS, moisture and disturbances lurking around TX , it gone b good

Might get squashed. Hopefully not.

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Come to pappa ! The 22/23 timeframe, is going to be a big dog! That cold press on 0z GFS, moisture and disturbances lurking around TX , it gone b good

Mack special... start the thread :hurrbear:

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1 big dog for the upstate, one for the triangle/central NC, one for the Carolina midlands/eastern NC...

Most, of course, in fantasy land

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I would not write off some token flakes on Friday night, but those curling edges of the “front ends” are hard to predict 12 hours out, not just 5 days. Whatever falls would then have to be beefy enough to not evaporate in the residual dry air mass. So I wouldn’t put hard money on that.

Next week looks cool, with ample opportunity if the structure of the pattern holds, but most veterans here know how quickly that can sour. Would not yet focus on any particular time period.

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5 hours ago, ILMRoss said:

I would not write off some token flakes on Friday night, but those curling edges of the “front ends” are hard to predict 12 hours out, not just 5 days. Whatever falls would then have to be beefy enough to not evaporate in the residual dry air mass. So I wouldn’t put hard money on that.

Next week looks cool, with ample opportunity if the structure of the pattern holds, but most veterans here know how quickly that can sour. Would not yet focus on any particular time period.

Yep when they call for warm and rainy it verifies, when cold and snow it sours. :facepalm:

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RAH is also looking at Saturdays potential. But they say it shouldn't amount to much (if anything):

"The high pressure system will be centered over eastern Quebec on Saturday morning and extend southward into the western Carolinas. At the same time, a surface low pressure system will organize across the Missouri Valley on Saturday morning and then lift into northern New England by Sunday morning. High level moisture will spread into central NC Friday night and a developing/lifting warm front will extend an area of light precipitation from the mountains east toward the Piedmont late Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a chance that the developing band of precipitation may start off as some wet snow or mixed rain or snow, mainly across locations near and north of Interstate-85. Still a lot of details to be resolved and the timing of this system has shifted a great deal but at this point it appears that any snow that falls will be associated with the lifting warm front, conversational in nature and short lived."

Dealing with next weeks potential, I like the setup shown on last nights Canadian at day 10:

 

jjjj.jpg

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9 hours ago, jburns said:

Many here wouldn't even notice it. They would be too busy downloading and posting 340 hour maps.

Yeah, that's kind of cute. Got a room reserved in A'ville just the same. We shall see.......

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Wow, posters on here are like Clemson defensive backs this morning....no where to be found!  Surprising given the potential.  Headed to Asheville this weekend, may see some token winter precip. early Saturday.         

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2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Wow, posters on here are like Clemson defensive backs this morning....no where to be found!  Surprising given the potential.  Headed to Asheville this weekend, may see some token winter precip. early Saturday.         

The blockbuster pattern that was showing up a few days ago, for cold and wintry weather, has turned to cool shots, followed by rain. Rinse, repeat 

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2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Wow, posters on here are like Clemson defensive backs this morning....no where to be found!  Surprising given the potential.  Headed to Asheville this weekend, may see some token winter precip. early Saturday.         

As a UGA fan I have little room to speak of championship games....always watching to see how things pan out here in Cobb County. After spending 34 years along the lake in Chicago, winter is slightly different these days. Our oldest would love to make a few bucks shoveling/breaking up ice along the driveways and sidewalks of the neighborhood. 

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17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The blockbuster pattern that was showing up a few days ago, for cold and wintry weather, has turned to cool shots, followed by rain. Rinse, repeat 

Cool? If anything it's too cold. The gulf coast gets snow while the interior SE is bone dry. We need a NW trend to save us. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Cool? If anything it's too cold. The gulf coast gets snow while the interior SE is bone dry. We need a NW trend to save us. 

Agreed. Don't think the magnitude of cold has changed, just turned to suppression city... 

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Agreed. Don't think the magnitude of cold has changed, just turned to suppression city... 
12z was colder... Stronger cold press= more suppression. It even shows on the ensembles

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The one next week is really not that far away from getting really interesting really fast.  I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of long nights over the next couple of weeks.

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

The one next week is really not that far away from getting really interesting really fast.  I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of long nights over the next couple of weeks.

I think it's fighting convective feedback which is limiting what we're seeing

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Cool? If anything it's too cold. The gulf coast gets snow while the interior SE is bone dry. We need a NW trend to save us. 

Right where we want it.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Right where we want it.

I will be perfectly happy with an Outer Banks coastal scraper to the chagrin of 99.98 % of the rest of the board. Wouldn't that be something? Suppression is the only way us NC coasties can get into anything decent.

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The blockbuster pattern that was showing up a few days ago, for cold and wintry weather, has turned to cool shots, followed by rain. Rinse, repeat 

That is not even remotely correct. 

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So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though.  You know where I am placing my bets.

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I think, with the cold thats being modeled, january 2005 isnt a terrible analog. There were massive positive departures early in the month that went into two weeks in the icebox

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9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though.  You know where I am placing my bets.

The moisture isn’t gone...maybe if you’re only looking at the OP GFS. 

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