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PrinceFrederickWx

Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest

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It's time for the 5th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Everyone is encouraged to play- including lurkers, new members and people outside the region!
 
You are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) for the four major airports: BWI, DCA, IAD and RIC. 

For the tiebreaker, you will choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury (SBY) or Lynchburg (LYH). Please choose only one- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. 

The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports (this link explains the calculation in more detail, for anyone who needs clarification: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50428-mid-atlantic-winter-2017-18-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=4656575 ).

Please use the following format when posting your forecast:
BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):

The deadline for entries is Saturday, November 30 at 11:59pm. You are welcome to edit your forecast as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well.

The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners:

2015-16: @Shadowzone

2016-17: @Stormpc

2017-18: @olafminesaw

2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc)

Good luck everyone!

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BWI _ 27.5"

DCA _ 22.1"

IAD _ 34.3"

RIC _ 15.5"

SBY _ 14.5"

(could be adjusting this, at the moment I think the sweet spot for northeast US snowfall will be a bit north of your region but cold air will be available at least to mid-Jan and there is probably some chance of a big snowstorm before the pattern shifts to a milder second half of winter) _ some similarity to 95-96 so can't rule out that sort of outcome yet. A very good analogue seems to be 1971-72, how did you fare that winter? 

(edited my original numbers slightly upward on Nov 7th no real change in thinking just feeling a bit more confident of the one big storm during the good setup before the warmer second half). 

 

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BWI: 26.5"
DCA: 17.8"
IAD: 27.2"
RIC: 11.8"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 13.1"

*Guesses subject to change based on future outlooks, model delusions, and a night with a bottle of Crown Vanilla

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