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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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Just now, midatlanticweather said:

From what i saw, the Euro Ens were better for area wide snow - maybe less for some, but more for quite a few. Clearly - there is no clarity.. except we know this is unlikely to be anything big... 

 

so we just wait and see? 

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EPS looked a lil better for snow prospects than the OP IMO


31d145d113a7de7ac67ce3372725269e.jpg

something something, lock it up.

Comparing between 0z, Jackpotville lost some snow, as well as a second maximum in SE VA, but overall a little more for most if not just equivalent. Definitely not a run that suggests the threat is over.
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I love that Jackpotville is a highly referenced place when comparing snow totals. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


31d145d113a7de7ac67ce3372725269e.jpg

something something, lock it up.

Comparing between 0z, Jackpotville lost some snow, as well as a second maximum in SE VA, but overall a little more for most if not just equivalent. Definitely not a run that suggests the threat is over.

 

its mid-november! if i got 1.5" next week from a passing cold front with crashing temps, I would be elated! take what you can get this early man. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


31d145d113a7de7ac67ce3372725269e.jpg

something something, lock it up.

Comparing between 0z, Jackpotville lost some snow, as well as a second maximum in SE VA, but overall a little more for most if not just equivalent. Definitely not a run that suggests the threat is over.

 

We abscond with that.  I would take an inch of snow in a heartbeat in mid-November

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This EPS run actually brought back in a couple of higher end solutions, especially south. Reminds me of earlier GFS runs a little.

Good chunk of members jackpot Hampton Rhodes, a couple of 10”ers in there.

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

We abscond with that.  I would take an inch of snow in a heartbeat in mid-November

Be honest @yoda. We’d take it in the middle of January too and act like we didn’t care that it wasn’t 10”.

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Flipping through the individual members the eps leaves the door pretty wide open for possible outcomes. Some that look like the op but many 1 to 2 inchers with some more sizable ones sprinkled in also.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ggem and euro both flipped back to a more amplified primary low that cuts inland. Round and round we go. 

There is still enough spread within the ensembles that it could go either way, but if the lead northern stream wave ends up dominant that is probably the inevitable result.  Its coming across too far north and out ahead of the cold push for our purposes.  

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30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But how does that eps mean happen. If it’s because of one or two big totals then it doesn’t mean much at all.

I counted 20 thats gives dc 1" or more.

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6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

For the Storm after the front.. Ensembles around the 15th looks interesting. Just saw a DT post on it..

 

Aleet!!

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's always the storm after the storm!

And he said lower MA...that’s code for FU to anyone north of RIC 

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s definitely some indications of a coastal low on the GEFS and Eps for next weekend. 

It would likely be rain, with the midweek cold going stale/moving out. I am down for a soaking rain though. It's starting to get a bit dry here again.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It would likely be rain, with the midweek cold going stale/moving out. I am down for a soaking rain though. It's starting to get a bit dry here again.

Yes, cold air would be getting stale for sure. 850 temps on both look chilly now, but if the low was closer to the coast, those could warm. 

General pattern on the ensembles as we move toward D10+ is to lose cross polar flow, but maintain a +PNA, so we could be BN but not in record territory like next week.

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm good with a wet pattern becoming consistent again. It's just a shame we won't have a winter now thanks to those winter outlooks :(

Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher.

You got that right my brethren. We torch as one.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher.

Hope your new grass survives the winter torch......  keep watering :D

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3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This EPS run actually brought back in a couple of higher end solutions, especially south. Reminds me of earlier GFS runs a little.

Good chunk of members jackpot Hampton Rhodes, a couple of 10”ers in there.

I can sympathize with them. 

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3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But how does that eps mean happen. If it’s because of one or two big totals then it doesn’t mean much at all.

Agreed. I am still thinking it is a Nov climo "event". Strong cold front with 15 minutes of snow. That is just normal for this time of year for our area. 

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher.

Good news is that seasonal forecasting is as accurate as the woolly worm dark patch. 

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s definitely some indications of a coastal low on the GEFS and Eps for next weekend. 

Yes...and it's been on guidance for a while even at long leads and so has the timeframe after that one . I know as others have mentioned the cold will be a little stale but a setup like this with the right track could get it done . Nice banana high . I could see a rain to snow scenario with this . I'd take a slushy 1/2" lol this early.  

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_10.png

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