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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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Overnight runs were pretty rough for the Tue/Wed possibilities. Wouldn't give up on it at this point but we have definitely seen a degrade in the look. The make or break day for me is roughly Sunday when we see how the models handle the energy in the different streams in western Canada.

The following Friday has a little bit of potential but as has been mentioned we will be probably be dealing with stale cold where we need a manufacturing of cold (bombing low) or a fresh supply that is not evident on the models at this time. Looking at the EPS day 10/11 period has my interest somewhat (The previous Friday event will have a big say, think 50/50 low). Truth be told the whole period day 10 onward interests me. But we are talking the extended and the EPS is somewhat muddled on specific details but overall the pattern is favorable and we are seeing multiple pieces of NS energy diving down through this period.

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19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

She gone lads.

It was good target practice anyway. Tracking season is well underway now so getting ready to play the long game.  

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Just a thought...not an expectation.  Looking at the pattern relaxing just a bit in the long range with the higher heights in AK breaking down.  Basically the same pattern we are in now but less anomalous.  I could envision that Aleutian low pumping heights back up in AK but now we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole.  If the Aleutian low plays nice you can see how a true ridge bridge could form pretty quickly and really get the pattern cranking by early Dec.

EPS is close to pulling this off at the end of the run.  GEFS are outside in the yard playing soccer with a football bat.

 

LyfcKAm.png

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9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

ust a thought...not an expectation.  Looking at the pattern relaxing just a bit in the long range with the higher heights in AK breaking down.  Basically the same pattern we are in now but less anomalous.  I could envision that Aleutian low pumping heights back up in AK but now we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole.  If the Aleutian low plays nice you can see how a true ridge bridge could form pretty quickly and really get the pattern cranking by early Dec.

EPS is close to pulling this off at the end of the run.  GEFS are outside in the yard playing soccer with a football bat.

There are signs that a real - NAO may get going to extend the colder pattern in the NE later in November.  There always has been talk that later November/early December  it could occur.  

Looks of retrogression in the pattern along with several indicators such as the MJO, Aleutian low, Scand block. 

 

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole.

Check this out, really impressive.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Some decent thoughts here about the NAO from Webb, and what may happen. Plus, a quick one from HM on the same topic.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

 

Some decent thoughts here about the NAO from Webb, and what may happen. Plus, a quick one from HM on the same topic.

 

 

 

 

apparently Eric doesn't like cooler weather

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

apparently Eric doesn't like cooler weather

I am surprised he posted something  "positive " .  Most of the things recently were negative. Being in the South I think, and maybe he is just tired of the warmth. 

Grown a little tired of hearing him focus on the roll forward MJO and the warmth coming for December. I will take a -NAO in December though. 

 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

I am surprised he posted something  "positive " .  Most of the things recently were negative. Being in the South I think, and maybe he is just tired of the warmth. 

Grown a little tired of hearing him focus on the roll forward MJO and the warmth coming for December. I will take a -NAO in December though. 

 

I think this is the year we revisit the December 5th snow...I miss those old days when we could count on that snow every year

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2 hours ago, H2O said:

I really hate wasting great Nov patterns

This is a terrible pattern for snowstorms. I'd rather take my chances with CAD and the inland runner. Its cold/dry and warm/wet on steroids.

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Another thing I notice is each run of the GFS the cold is not as deep at the previous.  We were at 516 few cycles ago now 534.  It’s becoming less interesting.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Another thing I notice is each run of the GFS the cold is not as deep at the previous.  We were at 516 few cycles ago now 534.  It’s becoming less interesting.  

Gfs long range cold bias

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37 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

This is a terrible pattern for snowstorms. I'd rather take my chances with CAD and the inland runner. Its cold/dry and warm/wet on steroids.

Have only put two others on ignore for the winter throughout the years and they were after the 1'st of the year. And yet here we are a week into November and I am already putting you on ignore. Says a lot about your quality posting or should I say, lack of.

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GFS may be correct to moderate the cold and does have a bias toward cold in the LR.  But, the euro has indicated a sub 520 several runs in a row.

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GFS may be correct to moderate the cold and does have a bias toward cold in the LR.  But, the euro has indicated a sub 520 several runs in a row.

That’s good enough for me.  I’m not the GFS fan I used to be..it has led me down the primrose path one too many times.  

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14 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Is there warmth coming in December for sure? 

None of us are sure if we will wake up tomorrow morning...that said.... yes there is warmth coming in December.

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A little twist here on  time lines .

When I watched a great webinar from BAMMWX a week ago they talked about how the PV was ahead in the progression versus some other years in their analog package and research. 

Also,  the Siberian High is robust and off to a good start due to the abundance of Siberian snowfall. 

So, taken a step further everything happened so quickly , including the ramp  up of the PV we are indeed ahead of historical timetables.  ( per Webb - ahead by a month or so ) 

It is natural for the PV wanting to get stronger just as it is typical for it to undergo pressure and disruptions, which happens every year.  The players are starting to work on the PV . Of course there is the lag to take into account.  There are many outcomes possible in the next several weeks. HM's post for example.  ( may not have to wait for a top down ) 

This post below is of interest and touches on this very thing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The PV should shatter early on and doom every month except for perhaps Late February/Early March before the sun angle moderates the flow. These are my official thoughts at the moment. Don't get depressed I am just one guy making a prediction but I feel it's strongly backed by the science and climate mode.

As a disclaimer. The PV may not shatter but instead end up on the Siberian side. We all know how that works out for us.

It's been a long time since that happened. In a strange twist it may be worse for us versus the PV going away completely due to the quasi resonance ridge pumping over the SE Conus.

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31 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The PV should shatter early on and doom every month except for perhaps Late February/Early March before the sun angle moderates the flow. These are my official thoughts at the moment. Don't get depressed I am just one guy making a prediction but I feel it's strongly backed by the science and climate mode.

As a disclaimer. The PV may not shatter but instead end up on the Siberian side. We all know how that works out for us.

It's been a long time since that happened. In a strange twist it may be worse for us versus the PV going away completely due to the quasi resonance ridge pumping over the SE Conus.

PV splitting with the more dominant lobe over Siberia and another slightly weaker lobe near Hudson Bay would not be a bad thing AT ALL. That is IF that scenario in fact occurs. One dominant TPV anchored over the Arctic circle does little good. Nor does the PV remaining in tact and propagating towards Siberia. We also in turn probably dont want to see the main PV anchor itself over or South of Hudson Bay overwhelming the area with cold like a Nina. Looking at the SPV and TPV progs along with SST data in the N Atl, the current state/forecast of ENSO, and low but slowly increasing (forecast) solar activity, I am a proponent of where the overall pattern, especially irt the N Pole, N Atl,and HL Blocking potential is headed over the next several weeks into the New Year.

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Euro op Tuesday still giving light snow amounts along the m/d.  But I'm more interested in day 7 /8 with looks to be enough cold air still left for a wintery scenario if we can get that low offshore.  As it is with inland track still gets frozen up i81 for a time .

Then by hr216 it's over se Jersey crushing W. MD

A slow moving cutoff coastal would be fun rain or snow . This timeframe has been no secret for days with a coastal signal. 

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17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro op Tuesday still giving light snow amounts along the m/d.  But I'm more interested in day 7 /8 with looks to be enough cold air still left for a wintery scenario if we can get that low offshore.  As it is with inland track still gets frozen up i81 for a time .

Then by hr216 it's over se Jersey crushing W. MD

A slow moving cutoff coastal would be fun rain or snow 

This is an example of the calendar working against us.  There isn’t even a GLL to screw things up but the high in the plains is not cold enough and no CAD.   Month from now same scenario might have better outcome.  Cold rain is cool I guess.  

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That definitely has CAD.. but it is more like "Cool Air Damming" than the true "Cold Air Damming" - Still could have some sleety pellets at onset, especially in favored locations (kind of what the model is spitting out) - But, all in all, this looks like a cold rain. It is interesting nonetheless

 

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6 hours ago, Interstate said:

Soon some will start tracking Oct storms.

Happened out this way with Sandy. Mountains just to my SW got over 6 inches from it. 

High Res Euro is interesting for the 81 corridor next Friday. Just enough cold air left to get a little snow in the area before the flip to rain. Something to watch at least.

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