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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Gotcha. thanks. I cant believe how some of the local Baltimore metorologists have been talking about this. Not that they were saying it was going to be some kind of signifcant accumulation event but to spend a week talking about it and some of the wording used, I just dont get it.

I can offer a bit of background on that. From my discussions with a local tv met, the mention of snow, even if very little, was on purpose just to get people used to it being part of the forecast again. even if it doesn't amount to much. 

of course, that same met said they were accused of saying it because the grocery stores were paying them to, so... you can't please everyone. :lol:

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its freaking hyperbole to get people to tune in. Or in the case of Tony the tool Pann, to get people to follow his BS on Twitter.

well Tony is good friends with Berk, so..... weenies united. 

Not all of them are that way though ;) 

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Overnight Euro was interesting. 

First shot we see is on Monday (red circle). Right now it stays off the coast so that we see no impact through our region except for possibly around the VA tidewaters up to OC. Probably doesn't matter anyway as the very setup that brings this up the coast is also responsible for trashing our temps as the NS withdraws taking the colder temps with it to the N and E. And anyway I look at it I can't see getting the low closer to the coast to impact us without further losing the temps or getting the temps to cooperate without possibly losing the storm. Barring a somewhat significant shift at 500's, the euro being significantly off on temps or a bombing low just off our coast I think this storm is pretty much dead in the water. Now if we were in the heart of winter or even a month down the road where climo temps would be more cooperative I would have interest in this but as of now I think it is pretty much a non-player. But we are still 5+ days out so...


But that isn't the system that has my interest. Look at what we see following on the heals of our Monday system. We have a strong shortwave/trough (purple circle) running down through the gulf states which is attaining a neutral tilt through Mississippi. A neutral tilted trough around the Mississippi region is one of the things we look for when it comes to possible winter storms as quite often it will attain a favorable position and axis tilt (negative) as it sweeps through our region. This trough is catching a low that is forming in the gulf and drawing it northward up the coast as the trough goes negative tilt. Two other features to note are the 2 shortwaves (black circles) embedded in the north stream. The first shortwave (over Michigan) is driving a fresh supply of cold air down into the Midwest as it sweeps through the Lakes. The second shortwave is following with a reinforcing shot of cold air. So now we have a fresh supply of cold air to our west as a low forms and sweeps up the coast. As it is it just quite doesn't get it done. But to expect the Euro to have this energy in the NS nailed down as far as timing and placement at 5+ days is folly. Just a little difference with these features (if they exist) could mean a great deal in timing of the cold as well as the possibility of phasing between the NS energy and/or the southern energy.

rps126hr.gif.737d3e7100627a35b2bd00476df42fe6.gif

 

Now here are the 500's at day 7+. Notice we have negative tilted trough running through our region with an embedded closed low in a prime location over OBX. Not only that but we are seeing a capture of the surface at this time as well. If you also notice the shortwave over the Lakes (second shortwave from above), if we were to see a quicker deeper drop with that feature earlier in the process that could also come into play with potential NS/SS phasing. Also another feature that is of note is the ridging we see to the west in the central US. The initial placement (ridging builds up around Idaho) and eastward migration/evolution of this feature is one of a storm signal in the east. THIS IS THE LOOK WE WANT. Give me this look inside of 3 days and I would be hollering up a storm at the potential.

rps180hr.gif.5ad07e1da91367c6830e577d2568ee37.gif

 

Below we have the surface map as the same time above. We are seeing a 989 mb low captured around OBX and moving northward. This low has seen fairly rapid deepening the previous 24 hrs as we see a 15 mb drop. Now the temps are lagging a little to our west and we are seeing very little precip on the western side of the low. So basically it is a swing and a miss. But these are details that mean nothing at this time range (7+ days). As it is, it is enough to know that the Euro at this time, and has been for awhile, sees a shortwave running through the south as well as the NS dropping in to possibly provide cold air and possibly more. Anything beyond that as far as details is meaningless. Now if we can just get this general look inside 3 days...

eps180hrsurface.gif.81b5225cf6f5623342ab589dd228634f.gif

 

eta: Just a couple comments about the EPS on the possible Wed system. EPS still sees the southern low development and though somewhat progressive with that feature it has improved in that regard compared to yesterdays 12z run as well as with the trough depth and placement. Saw a better indication as far as possible NS involvement over the 12z run as well though we need to see improvement in that regard. Overall the general look has improved and shows the possibilities. Don't bother with glancing at the individual snow maps because they are basically a no-show. This will be a case of what we see occur with the NS in future runs. We continue to see improvements with that feature (in particular a deeper drop) then the other features would probably fall into place.

 

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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS turns on the NAO and cranks it to 11 for the whole run 

Yea it does. I keep thinking how a lot of the primary and secondary analog years I found features early season snowfall. So given that and what we are seeing it wouldn’t shock me to see an actual threat pop up faster then some might think. 

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56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. 

 

Lets see if we can get some agreement from the EPS.  But, for many burnt by last year, mets I mean, most are taking a wait and see approach, can't blame them. But, this is nice to see.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea it does. I keep thinking how a lot of the primary and secondary analog years I found features early season snowfall. So given that and what we are seeing it wouldn’t shock me to see an actual threat pop up faster then some might think. 

 

57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. 

And it keeps chickening out on breaking down ridging in western Canada. It’s not a super cold look, but a consistently BN look with storm chances. Hope we see that into winter.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

And it keeps chickening out on breaking down ridging in western Canada. It’s not a super cold look, but a consistently BN look with storm chances. Hope we see that into winter.

I know you know this backwards and forwards but a -NAO does not automatically mean cold. It's completely normal for most or all of Canada to be AN with a -NAO and our region to just be average (with a bias for below but only with help elsewhere). Especially during nino events. I'm not sold that enso is going to drive things this year but given recent developments with ens guidance it sure looks like a nino to me. lol. 

First half of Dec is still pretty hostile for snow here and early Mar is better snow climo to put it in perspective. Sucks to say but odds favor no snow even with a -NAO in early Dec unless there is a legit cold delivery. I'm not remotely worried about early Dec as much as I am the season as a whole. Parking a west based block leading into met winter is never bad and always good even if we don't snow. 

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Absolutely. If we see a look like that after December 15-20, then I’d be honking. Before that is pretty iffy, because that’s a seasonable to 5F below sort of look. Seasonable temps to 5 BN in early December are still above freezing for 18 hours a day or so. 

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