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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nam joins the Euro with a period of light snow for northern Md Tuesday fwiw. Temps are marginal but it would be a nice little appetizer for winter . 

GFS moved back toward that at 6z also. Better for @C.A.P.E. especially.

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS moved back toward that at 6z also. Better for @C.A.P.E. especially.

I mentioned  yesterday .Some  ensemble members still show a sort of secondary precip max for se areas and towards eastern shore . Some of them are rain and a few are wet snow . Something to keep an eye on .

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Heading north?

Any further north and I’ll have to post elsewhere :lol:

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I mentioned  yesterday .Some  ensemble members still show a sort of secondary precip max for se areas and towards eastern shore . Some of them are rain and a few are wet snow . Something to keep an eye on .

With no real trailing wave on the front, it looks like the usual cold chasing precip to me. Models do this a lot- show brief frozen on the tail end- and it is normally a total zero. Probably the best shot at seeing some flakes flying is with some instability snow showers as the legit cold moves in behind the front.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has replaced our coastal low for next weekend with a 1040mb arctic high pressure. 

Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving.

Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. 

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has replaced our coastal low for next weekend with a 1040mb arctic high pressure. 

Hopefully it might bring it back . It did have a strong vort dive down from Alaska a couple runs teaming up with that sw cutoff low energy . Last couple runs its weakened that vort not to mention a bit more progressive flow out ahead . Still longgg range . 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving.

Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. 

Im on the December 5th train join me

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Seeing the 1hr time steps on the Euro, you can see that there still is a little wave along the front Tuesday which keeps the precip going as the cold air moves in and flips things to wet snow for central MD.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Im on the December 5th train join me

I'm always in on that. More importantly... I'm looking for anything and everything that points towards Dec not being a disaster. If the seasonal/weekly guidance is right there won't be very many happy weenies in the MA this Dec. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving.

Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. 

 

Of interest ....... hopefully it has a clue. Or , another way to look at it .....   Bob >  CFSv2      

 

 

 

 

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On 11/8/2019 at 3:03 PM, LurkerBoy said:

None of you know what you’re talking about and there’s no women in this forum anywhere because it’s a boys club where outsiders are condescended to. Have a good winter. Move north

Guess this woman needs to move back to where she grew up:  Canada.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks a tad Nino-ish. :weenie:

I like the look up top, and the -heights over the Aleutians. Could be a really nice h5 pattern rolling this forward as we edge closer to Dec.

1574510400-bui2JvVffK8.png

That’s what you want to see if you don’t want to turn on the AC at Thanksgiving.  

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks a tad Nino-ish. :weenie:

I like the look up top, and the -heights over the Aleutians. Could be a really nice h5 pattern rolling this forward as we edge closer to Dec.

1574510400-bui2JvVffK8.png

Playing with fire with the pv migrating over towards Alaska like that. You can already see the cold getting bottled up on the other side of the globe as N America gets flooded with PAC air and warmth. With the trough/east/ridge/west setup we would get the occasional shot of seasonal/slightly below cold from Canada but at this time of year that won't cut it.

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21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Playing with fire with the pv migrating over towards Alaska like that. You can already see the cold getting bottled up on the other side of the globe as N America gets flooded with PAC air and warmth. With the trough/east/ridge/west setup we would get the occasional shot of seasonal/slightly below cold from Canada but at this time of year that won't cut it.

Dude we are always playing with fire one way or another here south of 40N loI. I would take my chances with that look, esp given it looks like heights are building into the NAO domain.

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5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Somebody give me a weenie like.

1573614000-oKPzzFnc9SI.png

Even the models recognize the DC snow hole in November. Impressive. Usually takes us much farther into the winter before seeing this kind of map.

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Playing with fire with the pv migrating over towards Alaska like that. You can already see the cold getting bottled up on the other side of the globe as N America gets flooded with PAC air and warmth. With the trough/east/ridge/west setup we would get the occasional shot of seasonal/slightly below cold from Canada but at this time of year that won't cut it.

If the EPS is correct, we lose the big WPO ridge and the -EPO for a time, and with that we lose the mechanism for cross polar flow. I don't see a flood of Pacific air as much as the cold air source we have had being cut off for a time. There is still a PNA ridge out west in a favorable location, and we are seeing indications of ridging in the NA. Now if the PNA goes negative and we don't see positive heights continue building into the NAO space, then there will be a definite warm up, but not like that is entirely unexpected at this point. If the Pacific is going to "betray" us in the long term, we in trouble going forward any way you slice it.

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22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z 12k NAM has 1-2" of snow for the eastern shore late Tuesday, maybe pushing 3 in S DE and down near SBY lol.

Defo deserving of....

 

 

 

 

 

:weenie::weenie::weenie:

Probably show a nor’easter next run. 

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Soon we will know how smart the seasonal models are with the NAO call. The post by Tony is interesting. 

Of note, if you click and close up on the image I do tend to see what Isotherm  mentioned and someone else at 33andrain, a deeper NAO after the bottom of the solar min. 

Also, not related to this post by Tony , but read as well,  next winter we reap the benefits of an established Easterly  QBO .  Personally I have seen the cycles go slower and then other times quicker. DT has something online that when the QBO is  -10 to -20 it corresponds to a very cold Eastern winter. As Isotherm mentioned as well we are not dropping fast enough to reap the benefits of the changing QBO in the early winter , but will tend to at least increase the odds it helps us when we get to Feb and March 

    

 

 

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42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well, looks like it's getting there...

1573614000-YkCUKY3ktlI.png

Fringed. :(

That's alright. I will gladly give up these nickle/dimers to you snow starved shore men just as long as I get in on the death bands from all the N'easters we are going to get this year. :D

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