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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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Fwiw... the upcoming weekend coastal signal the Eps ensembles had a couple days ago and backed off a bit on have started to warmup again to the idea and Gefs which showed nothing 24 hrs ago has really  jumped on board.  Most members still keep precip in se areas and into se Va but close enough to monitor for sure. It be great if we could get moisture up here by Saturday morning with fresh cold hp overhead . Right now guidance keeps most qpf confined to NC through se Va. 

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36 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Just looking at GEFS 500mb for Thanksgiving week looks workable.  It doesn’t look too bad at least based on this run.  

As long as we aren't above the upper 50s for highs I'm okay.  The last couple of years have been too warm.

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On 11/10/2019 at 8:58 AM, Rhino16 said:

Good writeup. Maybe we’ll be able to spend turkey day outside and not be cold the whole time.

Ugh, you are one of those guys. It's Thanksgiving, not Labor Day. You don't need to sit on the patio and sip Coronas. You had the last 6 months to do that.

Sit by the fire with a sweater on. That's Thanksgiving.

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Ugh, you are one of those guys. It's Thanksgiving, not Labor Day. You don't need to sit on the patio and sip Coronas. You had the last 6 months to do that.

Sit by the fire with a sweater on. That's Thanksgiving.

It needs to be chilly on Turkey day because my microwave makes my house too hot

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1 hour ago, anotherman said:


I remember last year being very cold at Thanksgiving.

Yes it was a last minute save from a backdoor cold front...it was progged to be warm until last minute

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Euro show any changeover to snow tomorrow still? I see the NAM, GFS and Canadian have all kind of back off at 12z on the changeover for the most part. Not that its a big deal anyway, just curious

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Euro show any changeover to snow tomorrow still? I see the NAM, GFS and Canadian have all kind of back off at 12z on the changeover for the most part. Not that its a big deal anyway, just curious

Yeah  for like 5 mins lol. We were discussing in the disco-obs thread. Has a bit more for SE areas of the region.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah  for like 5 mins lol. We were discussing in the disco-obs thread. Has a bit more for SE areas of the region.

Gotcha. thanks. I cant believe how some of the local Baltimore metorologists have been talking about this. Not that they were saying it was going to be some kind of signifcant accumulation event but to spend a week talking about it and some of the wording used, I just dont get it.

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Gotcha. thanks. I cant believe how some of the local Baltimore metorologists have been talking about this. Not that they were saying it was going to be some kind of signifcant accumulation event but to spend a week talking about it and some of the wording used, I just dont get it.

Yeah I had channel 45 on watching the late game yesterday and they did their spot for the upcoming newscast and mentioned the arctic cold but said that might not be the biggest story- there is snow in the forecast! I was quickly reminded why I NEVER watch local news anymore.

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Gotcha. thanks. I cant believe how some of the local Baltimore metorologists have been talking about this. Not that they were saying it was going to be some kind of signifcant accumulation event but to spend a week talking about it and some of the wording used, I just dont get it.

I can offer a bit of background on that. From my discussions with a local tv met, the mention of snow, even if very little, was on purpose just to get people used to it being part of the forecast again. even if it doesn't amount to much. 

of course, that same met said they were accused of saying it because the grocery stores were paying them to, so... you can't please everyone. :lol:

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its freaking hyperbole to get people to tune in. Or in the case of Tony the tool Pann, to get people to follow his BS on Twitter.

well Tony is good friends with Berk, so..... weenies united. 

Not all of them are that way though ;) 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

well Tony is good friends with Berk, so..... weenies united. 

Not all of them are that way though ;) 

Yes they are cut from the same cloth.

RPM!!!

#faithintheflakes

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The weather pattern looks rather boring for the rest of November to me, no? Looks like average maybe even some above average temps with not much in the signifcant storm department

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Still time for changes on the weekend coastal.  Many ensembles get qpf to se Va so close enough for me to track the remainder of the week and another coastal signal early week.  ATM not too boring imo . Another nice cold shot Friday  night through Sunday . Bonfires and Ipa's baby ...and if the weekend system trends north into that 1038 high :D

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Overnight Euro was interesting. 

First shot we see is on Monday (red circle). Right now it stays off the coast so that we see no impact through our region except for possibly around the VA tidewaters up to OC. Probably doesn't matter anyway as the very setup that brings this up the coast is also responsible for trashing our temps as the NS withdraws taking the colder temps with it to the N and E. And anyway I look at it I can't see getting the low closer to the coast to impact us without further losing the temps or getting the temps to cooperate without possibly losing the storm. Barring a somewhat significant shift at 500's, the euro being significantly off on temps or a bombing low just off our coast I think this storm is pretty much dead in the water. Now if we were in the heart of winter or even a month down the road where climo temps would be more cooperative I would have interest in this but as of now I think it is pretty much a non-player. But we are still 5+ days out so...


But that isn't the system that has my interest. Look at what we see following on the heals of our Monday system. We have a strong shortwave/trough (purple circle) running down through the gulf states which is attaining a neutral tilt through Mississippi. A neutral tilted trough around the Mississippi region is one of the things we look for when it comes to possible winter storms as quite often it will attain a favorable position and axis tilt (negative) as it sweeps through our region. This trough is catching a low that is forming in the gulf and drawing it northward up the coast as the trough goes negative tilt. Two other features to note are the 2 shortwaves (black circles) embedded in the north stream. The first shortwave (over Michigan) is driving a fresh supply of cold air down into the Midwest as it sweeps through the Lakes. The second shortwave is following with a reinforcing shot of cold air. So now we have a fresh supply of cold air to our west as a low forms and sweeps up the coast. As it is it just quite doesn't get it done. But to expect the Euro to have this energy in the NS nailed down as far as timing and placement at 5+ days is folly. Just a little difference with these features (if they exist) could mean a great deal in timing of the cold as well as the possibility of phasing between the NS energy and/or the southern energy.

rps126hr.gif.737d3e7100627a35b2bd00476df42fe6.gif

 

Now here are the 500's at day 7+. Notice we have negative tilted trough running through our region with an embedded closed low in a prime location over OBX. Not only that but we are seeing a capture of the surface at this time as well. If you also notice the shortwave over the Lakes (second shortwave from above), if we were to see a quicker deeper drop with that feature earlier in the process that could also come into play with potential NS/SS phasing. Also another feature that is of note is the ridging we see to the west in the central US. The initial placement (ridging builds up around Idaho) and eastward migration/evolution of this feature is one of a storm signal in the east. THIS IS THE LOOK WE WANT. Give me this look inside of 3 days and I would be hollering up a storm at the potential.

rps180hr.gif.5ad07e1da91367c6830e577d2568ee37.gif

 

Below we have the surface map as the same time above. We are seeing a 989 mb low captured around OBX and moving northward. This low has seen fairly rapid deepening the previous 24 hrs as we see a 15 mb drop. Now the temps are lagging a little to our west and we are seeing very little precip on the western side of the low. So basically it is a swing and a miss. But these are details that mean nothing at this time range (7+ days). As it is, it is enough to know that the Euro at this time, and has been for awhile, sees a shortwave running through the south as well as the NS dropping in to possibly provide cold air and possibly more. Anything beyond that as far as details is meaningless. Now if we can just get this general look inside 3 days...

eps180hrsurface.gif.81b5225cf6f5623342ab589dd228634f.gif

 

eta: Just a couple comments about the EPS on the possible Wed system. EPS still sees the southern low development and though somewhat progressive with that feature it has improved in that regard compared to yesterdays 12z run as well as with the trough depth and placement. Saw a better indication as far as possible NS involvement over the 12z run as well though we need to see improvement in that regard. Overall the general look has improved and shows the possibilities. Don't bother with glancing at the individual snow maps because they are basically a no-show. This will be a case of what we see occur with the NS in future runs. We continue to see improvements with that feature (in particular a deeper drop) then the other features would probably fall into place.

 

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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS turns on the NAO and cranks it to 11 for the whole run 

Yea it does. I keep thinking how a lot of the primary and secondary analog years I found features early season snowfall. So given that and what we are seeing it wouldn’t shock me to see an actual threat pop up faster then some might think. 

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21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS turns on the NAO and cranks it to 11 for the whole run 

Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. 

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41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. 

 

06E78833-8906-44F9-AB05-1AD9983153F3.jpeg

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56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. 

 

Lets see if we can get some agreement from the EPS.  But, for many burnt by last year, mets I mean, most are taking a wait and see approach, can't blame them. But, this is nice to see.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea it does. I keep thinking how a lot of the primary and secondary analog years I found features early season snowfall. So given that and what we are seeing it wouldn’t shock me to see an actual threat pop up faster then some might think. 

 

57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, and it's a textbook west based block and not some convoluted bootleg deal. It's quite surprising but that's how the NAO rolls. We haven't had a favorable/blocky winter pattern in Dec since 2010. 

And it keeps chickening out on breaking down ridging in western Canada. It’s not a super cold look, but a consistently BN look with storm chances. Hope we see that into winter.

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