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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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I know we only care how much electronic snow falls in each model run, but that was a fairly large shift on the euro. Up until this  run, next week’s storm was all northern stream energy, with nothing coming out of that Baja cutoff low. GFS brings out all that energy and phases it, hence the 6z solution. What you see now in all the 12z runs (euro, gfs, and GGEM)  is some of that energy coming out and phasing/partially phasing with the northern stream energy. Euro keeps the 2 pieces most separate while the North American models partially phase. Any sort of phase raises the boom/bust scenario up a notch or two. But also phasing is complicated, so don’t expect any sort of locked in scenario anytime soon. The simplest solution for first flakes for us continues to be a northern stream only vort passage that drops some light snow. I’m skeptical of a wound up inland cutter right now, but with the icon, ukie, and a handful of GEFS members showing it, I suppose it can’t be discounted yet.

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Happy hour GFS not going to make many friends south of Jackpotville.  Time to open up the Panic Room? Thankfully this is preseason so I’m sure we’ll all react rationally.  

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Ahhh back to reality....lol

26A470DF-87F4-4087-A0AD-1AF5A4BAE19A.png

Lol.   We’re getting into shape for the winter!  The run wasn’t that far off from giving something decent though if we set our bar at just seeing flakes from the sky.  

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We a long way from knowing how this plays out. One wave, or 2? Wound up cutter?

I just can't get excited about it because, well, climo. If I lived in Canaan, yeah I would be totally into it. If I see a few flakes in the air here before Nov 15th, it's a win.

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This looks like waves riding a frontal boundary to me. I could be wrong as I profess no expertise. If that’s the case we would seem to be depending on that front getting far enough south of us but not too far. Depending on the models to not overdo how far south it gets is a problem it would seem as that seems to be consistently over done. Timing of the waves with the boundary in the right place would then come into play.

it could work out great I suppose but not sure I’d hang a hat on this one even if it were later in the season.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Who do I have to ban around here to get an EPS update?! I got a symphony to write. 

Don’t know about individual members, but the 144hr EPS mean map on TT looked decent. 850 0C line just N/W of the metro corridor with low off the coast. But can see there’s still quite a bit of spread. 

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Who do I have to ban around here to get an EPS update?! I got a symphony to write. 

Canst thou make thee 10th symphony of Beethoven about snow?

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1573689600-IwjKGiciGM4.png

Don't have the skills for analysis but here is the mean. Could be worse.

lol it sucks. But to be expected given its early Nov. Keep expectations in check.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol it sucks. But to be expected given its early Nov. Keep expectations in check.

I haven’t seen all the Eps snow means for this event, but isn’t this among the best or the best yet?

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19 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Canst thou make thee 10th symphony of Beethoven about snow?

He cannot...why? Because Beethoven already had ideas about his 10th before he died! :D It would have to be an 11th...lol (sorry, couldn't resist putting my music nerd hat on!) It

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I haven’t seen all the Eps snow means for this event, but isn’t this among the best or the best yet?

It has generally been about the same for several runs, but there have been better. It is splitting hairs though for a mean. The 0z run had an inch+ for DC to Dover through 0z Thursday, compared to 0.7" for the 12z run.

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It has generally been about the same for several runs, but there have been better. It is splitting hairs though for a mean. The 0z run had an inch+ for DC to Dover through 0z Thursday, compared to 0.7" for the 12z run.

Ok. Yeah, that’s hair splitting at D7. Still having a storm and keeping us in the game is the goal at this range. Particularly in November.

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From my limited resources it sure looks like the 18z gfs end members are really trying to blow this thing up and cut it right over us or to our west. Doesn’t look like a lot of good snow chances in there.

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After we finish shoveling Tuesday.....Day 10/11 on the Eps definitely hinting at a coastal .The  OP has also shown this possiblity a run or 2 . 
Snow on Snow :mapsnow:
 


The CMC ens I posted as a joke in the Digital Snow Thread really like that one, actually. That’s where it gets the multiple MECS/HECS from.
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