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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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26 minutes ago, mattie g said:

And Twitter doesn't count!

i tried to attach the image here, but it wouldn't let me. so :P

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

November snow is so common for jackpotville they don’t even think it’s worth posting here!

nope. see my post to mattie. appreciate the sass though. 

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From Don S. taken with the notion that we are not really sure about the next three weeks and how the PDO might change along with possible blocking, as Don mentions. 

I personally feel that the record IOD , + PMM , less sea ice over vast areas North of Alaska and other factors point to possibly normal December temp wise. but only speculation at this point.     

However,  as with the upcoming extremely cold and anomalous air mass we could snap the rubber band and go in the opposite direction resulting in warmth returning for a while in December , the extent and duration is again pure speculation.   

From Don S recent post ( just a section of it ) from the NYC forum :

<<<

 

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

 

>>>>>

 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro brought back a little light snow next Monday and nobody posted it?  

Guess we don't have to worry about Ji posting it :lol:

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

From Don S. taken with the notion that we are not really sure about the next three weeks and how the PDO might change along with possible blocking, as Don mentions. 

I personally feel that the record IOD , + PMM , less sea ice over vast areas North of Alaska and other factors point to possibly normal December temp wise. but only speculation at this point.     

However,  as with the upcoming extremely cold and anomalous air mass we could snap the rubber band and go in the opposite direction resulting in warmth returning for a while in December , the extent and duration is again pure speculation.   

From Don S recent post ( just a section of it ) from the NYC forum :

<<<

 

Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

 

>>>>>

 

That is exactly what my analogs focused on (cool east Pac and warmer west-central Pac).  I also expect a warm December.

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18 hours ago, frd said:

An upper air feature, low pressure disturbance,  that move out of far W/NW Canada going SE ( quickly ) and passes over the province of Manitoba, Canada.

These features can at times drop far enough to our South and Southeast to spawn cyclogenesis. If they drop far enough to our South and the pattern is conducive they can develop into powerful East Coast snowstorms.  Sometimes these storms can even stall or loop as they move NE along the Eastern Seaboard dropping feet of snow.  

This diving system out of Canada shares common characteristics with Alberta clippers and even Saskatchewan Screamers. The name given simply implies the location they pass over.

Great link 

       https://www.9and10news.com/2011/01/03/alberta-clipper-saskatchewan-screamer-manitoba-mauler/

Canadian Provinces and Territories

 

Thanks for all the detail!

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16 minutes ago, frd said:

Back - trajectories - pretty cool. For this Sat AM.  

 

 

 

Cross polar flow this early in the year is always nice to see.  I just hope we don't empty the clip and somehow reset to a blistering SE ridge for the meat of winter.  At the very least this should kick up a good amount of lake effect and start freezing up Canada.

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Lol at the CMC. I'll take me 8 to 12 and like it. Don't want to post the snow map here. I'll post it over in the preseason fantasy snow thread.

Edit- for next Tuesday

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45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I just hope we don't empty the clip and somehow reset to a blistering SE ridge for the meat of winter.

 

Well................................... this might empty the clip  .......j/k  

 

 

Image

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lol at the CMC. I'll take me 8 to 12 and like it. Don't want to post the snow map here. I'll post it over in the preseason fantasy snow thread.

Edit- for next Tuesday

Ah, that crazy Canadian.   I love me some digital snow. 

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20 minutes ago, frd said:

Well................................... this might empty the clip  .......j/k  

Already posted about this...

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36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ah, that crazy Canadian.   I love me some digital snow. 

Obviously it’s probably wrong, but it seems to have been doing pretty well of late relative to the gfs.

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32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Already posted about this...

Brought it up in the context of a somewhat similar occurrence, a few years ago when a extremely powerful cyclone went up into the NE Pac. Was all over the media and social feeds. 

Sorry for not including the reference. Was thinking about it and forget to include it in my post. 

Anyways,  there was talk that winter that it could have messed up the AO domain because of over pumping the heights and messing things up in general. 

However,  IF  it was the Fall of 2015 and it was the Bering Sea Bomb then that following Jan we had the spike down in the AO and the Blizzard in an otherwise crap winter. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2016/01/supplemental/page-5

So take from that what you may. 

Overall speculation about any future outcomes pending the recurve as Webb mentions.  

Oh, just to mention in 2014 there was Nuri  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2014_Bering_Sea_cyclone

 

I found this link 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/14/bering-sea-bomb-cyclone-ties-record-for-strongest-storm-in-north-pacific/

Dec. 14, 2015 at 2:51 p.m. EST

The Bering Sea west of Alaska hosted a whopping storm system over the weekend, with sustained winds equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane and gusts up to 115 mph.

Having dropped 49 millibars between Saturday and Sunday, the incredible Aleutian cyclone constitutes a meteorological “bomb” — a storm that drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours — more than twice over.

Early Sunday morning, the storm’s central pressure finally bottomed out at 924 millibars, tying the record for lowest wintertime pressure in the North Pacific Ocean since records began in the winter of 1969-1970. The previous strongest storm in this region occurred just one year ago.

 

 

 

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GEFS longwave pattern is pretty gorgeous through the entire run if you like cold and snow chances. Really hope we get looks like this next month and beyond. Eastern trough locked in with -AO and +PNA. And some hints of a continued active pattern. A move toward the euro solution for next weeks possible event as well. 

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