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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

That exact line was said in October 29, 2011 by many . Last year 11/15 as well :whistle:. Actually first flakes are very common in early mid Nov up this way . It's all bonus baby before December 

Well if the bar is a few flakes in the air...then yeah sure. Veterans day(or before) snowstorms don't happen too often, even up your way.

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well if the bar is a few flakes in the air...then yeah sure. Veterans day(or before) snowstorms don't happen too often, even up your way.

Yea...just razzing ya:rolleyes: . Pixie dust is a win in November 

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GFS with high temps 30F below normal in 10 days. Lol

I’ll take the over. 

As for snow, I consider any non accumulating snow that is noticeable to everyone, and not just us squinting at microscopic flakes, to be great in November. Measurable is a total win. 

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I thought the gfs was really close to something too.

Man, the GFS is ALWAYS close to something as long as the thermometer is within spitting distance of freezing and the smallest bit of moisture is nearby...lol If they ain't improved it, does it still have value when it comes winter?

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Man, the GFS is ALWAYS close to something as long as the thermometer is within spitting distance of freezing and the smallest bit of moisture is nearby...lol If they ain't improved it, does it still have value when it comes winter?


I think this is the first winter with the fully upgraded FV3. We’ll find out, lol.
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Biggest Metro snow in my lifetime was Veterans Day, November 11, 1987.  About a foot fell in thundersnow in less than 6 hours.  A 20 minute drive from University of Maryland, College Park to Greenbelt took me 4 hours with cars abandoned everywhere.  No one predicted it!  I always start tracking around this date.

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Talk about weather porn lol. GFS has a huge cold snap incoming around the next weekend timeframe. Even caused an interesting choice of words by Dr. Maue:

That's one hell of a cold blast

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Talk about weather porn lol. GFS has a huge cold snap incoming around the next weekend timeframe. Even caused an interesting choice of words by Dr. Maue:
That's one hell of a cold blast


I saw that tweet and was hoping he was just trolling with his choice of words describing the cold. Highs in the teens and 20s in the upper Midwest won’t devastate anyone.
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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 


I saw that tweet and was hoping he was just trolling with his choice of words describing the cold. Highs in the teens and 20s in the upper Midwest won’t devastate anyone.

 

Growing season is over out there, right? A big freeze before the harvest is the only thing I can think of.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I imagine he’s trolling but hard to tell with him sometimes. Sort of like his views on climate.

He is on a growing list of people I completely ignore. I don’t have time for assclowns in my life. 

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Now that’s exactly where I want a storm. Loved that GFS run. Definitely some Central VA bias but a good step forward for all. Legit window here for everyone. Would like to see a slight shift south on the Euro or CMC.

 

1bc6defc135a900dbcd0b3b38c8fa3e5.jpg

 

Changed the map because that old one was bugged out... 42” in NC lol.

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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Now that’s exactly where I want a storm. Loved that GFS run. Definitely some Central VA bias but a good step forward for all. Legit window here for everyone. Would like to see a slight shift south on the Euro or CMC.

 

2a2cd355e7a77dab03855bb29539d9ac.jpg

Get that porn out of here!!!:arrowhead::lmao:

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24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Now that’s exactly where I want a storm. Loved that GFS run. Definitely some Central VA bias but a good step forward for all. Legit window here for everyone. Would like to see a slight shift south on the Euro or CMC.

 

1bc6defc135a900dbcd0b3b38c8fa3e5.jpg

 

Changed the map because that old one was bugged out... 42” in NC lol.

Wait a minute..you takin' this seriously?

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Wait a minute..you takin' this seriously?


Meh, a little bit. I recognize the unlikelihood and definitely wont be disappointed when this fades into oblivion but the window is there and the GEFS/EPS have had a decent amount of support for first flakes over the past couple of runs.

We only get a dozen (maybe a couple dozen) or so shots at cold and precip a year so I’ll pay attention to a look in November if a global model has a storm in 6-7 days. Keeps me entertained.

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Yay models are back to being an hour earlier :lol:

Looks like 00z EURO says just kidding about the snow (@weathafella mentioned it already in the SNE forum)

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Does anyone know the difference between the Euro and Euro High Res?  And why one has pType and Surface Precip for free and the other does not?

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5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If nothing else this is a good way to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the new FV3 GFS.

Leans very suppressed/squashed compared to CMC/EURO/ICON at the moment.

0z Euro is flat, suppressed, and weak. Doesn't come together the same way in the upper levels. Precip gets as far north as SE PA. Verbatim maybe a R-S mix on the northern fringe.

There are a significant number of ens members with a storm. The ones with legit snow almost all have it to our north favoring NE. These members develop a stronger coastal low further north.

Mean total snow for extreme N MD is 0.8" through next Sat morning. Anywhere south of that is 0.1-0.2. The 2" line in N PA.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z Euro is flat, suppressed, and weak. Doesn't come together the same way in the upper levels. Precip gets as far north as SE PA. Verbatim maybe a R-S mix on the northern fringe.

There are a significant number of ens members with a storm. The ones with legit snow almost all have it to our north favoring NE. These members develop a stronger coastal low further north.

Mean total snow for extreme N MD is 0.8" through next Sat morning. Anywhere south of that is 0.1-0.2. The 2" line in N PA.

This winter is a bust. I’m out.:lol:

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

This winter is a bust. I’m out.:lol:

Need to cash in over the next 2 weeks with fantastic cooperation on the Pacific side bringing the cold. Sense of urgency!!

Good to see persistence in the LR with the favorable PNA/EPO/WPO. If the pattern plays out as advertised, there probably will be some relaxation towards the end of the month, which would be a good thing.

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Looks like we might be close to a nice storm late next week. GFS has subtle changes between 0z and 6z runs today. Looks like a good tracking event for our first shot of some snow.

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WBAL mentioned snow in their forecast for Thursday. Was surprised. Euro is a mix up this way briefly, so very briefly. Lol at those gfs runs. Weenie season starting early this year! :lol:

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