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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS with high temps 30F below normal in 10 days. Lol

I’ll take the over. 

As for snow, I consider any non accumulating snow that is noticeable to everyone, and not just us squinting at microscopic flakes, to be great in November. Measurable is a total win. 

What time will Barney hit my house?

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Great Lakes to cool off and snow in SE Canada.  Very impressive forecast  map. 

The question later in the month is whether there is a whole sale pattern change,  or just a relaxation , even a version of an Indian summer if you may.  

I remember Joel Myers saying in the old days , 1970's and 1980's you can only pull the rubber band so much before it pulls back or snaps.  In this case keeping a highly anomalous winter like pattern for an extended period of time makes you wonder the implications for the first 1/3 of the meteorological winter.  

Of course, there are things that argue after a brief to moderate relaxation we go back to what the base state may want to provide, which is an active storm track(s), and penetrations of cold air. this takes place as wavelengths continue to lengthen.   

 

 

 

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Taken with a grain of salt , but nice to see the AO negative and staying negative. I think the Euro Ensemble index more likely to be correct.  ( last image ) 

 

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10 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If nothing else this is a good way to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the new FV3 GFS.

Leans very suppressed/squashed compared to CMC/EURO/ICON at the moment.

Actually if the new gfs still has a cold bias and we adjust for that it would explain the discrepancy with last nights euro. Remove the colder profile and the enhanced baroclonocity from that and you get a weaker wave sliding off (that is slightly farther north) with very little frozen anywhere. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually if the new gfs still has a cold bias and we adjust for that it would explain the discrepancy with last nights euro. Remove the colder profile and the enhanced baroclonocity from that and you get a weaker wave sliding off (that is slightly farther north) with very little frozen anywhere. 

Likely.

I mean, it's fun to see it on a model, but...GFS.  In early November. 

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54 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Gonna be fun around here this winter with the "new" GFS.

I’ve had arguments with people in the NWP field and I get that predicting snow is only one factor but snowfall is one of the most high profile events they do predict. Below tropical in impact but snowfall is more common and impacts a much larger population in the U.S.  Severe also but that’s more a nowcast then medium/long range thing.  When it comes to medium range snowfall is the prime time game for many and yet they roll out a model that sucks at it. I just don’t get it.  And I’ve defended our NWP on almost everything. 

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This is a touchy setup to be fair- fast flow, cold pressing, plus a SS vort in the SW that could try to partially phase with NS energy as it ejects. That looks less likely on recent runs, and ofc that's what folks in NE are rooting for. This is good practice for us, because odds are no matter how it plays out, it's probably mostly if not all rain for this region. Not sure I saw any flat wave scenarios on the Euro ens members that had much more than a r-s mix on the northern fringe

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My brief amateur take on the 12z GFS is that not much changed other than the timing -- was earlier and hence less impactful for Central VA. Precip actually took a slight jog north, looked kinda EURO-y but more south for most of the run until it flipped to a NC snowstorm at the end.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

My brief amateur take on the 12z GFS is that not much changed other than the timing -- was earlier and hence less impactful for Central VA. Precip actually took a slight jog north, looked kinda EURO-y but more south for most of the run until it flipped to a NC snowstorm at the end.

It tries to do a bit of a phase job- definitely more dig in the NS- but positive tilt/progressive and it's too little, too late.

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Slight differences in the LR on the GFS- the big blue ball of doom for the 13th is gone. The negative 15-20C departures are now +3 lol. No more Barney. :o

Then we really torch after that.

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3 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

Euro then snows on us day 8-9.

 

2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Also has another coastal after that

 

 

Sure does. I went to watch the Steelers-Colts game for a bit, then came back and looked at the rest of the run. Interesting. Long way out.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

Sure does. I went to watch the Steelers-Colts game for a bit, then came back and looked at the rest of the run. Interesting. Long way out.

Lots of Barney either way. 

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I just hope when a pattern relax happens that it’s a reload and doesn’t flip back to big SE ridge. But hopefully this is the dominant background forcing (IO forcing the MJO in favorable phases, ENSO, QBO, etc) showing it’s hand.

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3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Likely.

I mean, it's fun to see it on a model, but...GFS.  In early November. 

Definitely. I’m not negative on winter at all. I see some positive signs. Some things that aren’t great. But all in all I see more I like than not. That probably means not a blockbuster but not a dud either. Maybe better than “most” of our winters. The details of a storm in early November won’t impact my expectations for winter much. 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Given the euro solution and the gfs ens (via psu) not sure I’d totally give up on the upcoming weekend system.

I agree. It looks like there are a couple of shortwaves in the flow as the cold settles in. I think we could easily see one of them trend better. Anything at this point of the season is excellent.

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Euro/EPS is still biting on this period of time that it hinted at last week at the end of its extended with a Coastal/Miller B solution on its overnight run. What we are seeing is a weak impulse of PAC jet energy sliding to our south through VA. 500's dropping in behind it initiate coastal development of this energy. 

 

eurosurface.gif.ba7b120e04afbc81d4afa3cbc439a0d7.gif

 

500's are closing off and dropping down through southern MD/N VA. We are seeing such a robust 500 solution due to interaction between NS energy and PV energy as they drop in through the Mid-west. 

euro500.gif.60408ce2e2b60b75dd42008b57d28a73.gif

 

Below we can see the different pieces of energy that are involved. We have the NS (north stream) energy that has ridden up and over the EPO ridge and is now dropping down into the Midwest. Beside it we see the energy that is rotating around the PV and dropping in behind the NS energy in a favorable position for phasing. Underneath these features we see the PAC energy which will slide to the south then turn up through VA and then the coast. The combined NS/PV energy is dropping down behind the PAC energy, again in a favorable position, but the timing between these two features is slightly off. Thus we are seeing a phase up off the NE coast, far too late to benefit us. This results in a modest coastal for our region but nothing I would call explosive. But... speed up the NS/PV energy or slow down the PAC energy to decrease the distance/timing between the two and we probably have explosive development, which would probably occur farther south in a much more favorable local for the metros. Now we are talking features (energy in the midlevels) that the models will have difficulty handling at 7/8 days . Timing will always be suspect as well as the fact that these packets of energy may only be a figment of the models imagination (I start taking the models somewhat seriously with these features when we get within 3 days or so).

euroenergy.gif.f1ddd97bbc69f31f350a10b84a72b62a.gif

 

Below we have the 10-1 snowfall map. Looks as if @C.A.P.E. will be taking a trip to Bethany/Rehoboth again. Maybe @WxWatcher007 will split the costs of a room with him. All I can say to them is, post pics. :) 

eurosnowfall.gif.3881b4dc9d1846afa55d9dbe6318320f.gif

 

ETA: Actually some pretty good support from the EPS for development of a low in the east and/or off the coast during this time.

 

 

 

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@showmethesnow

Nice write up. This period has been popping out as one with some potential. The usual caveats- its early, climo, etc. It would take a pretty anomalous airmass/set up for it to snow on the coast the second week of November, but it can happen, and the h5 looks we are seeing from the guidance lately is pretty anomalous looking lol.

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