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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Wouldn't say it went poof.  It's weaker and more progressive, but still there.  Basically went from area-wide accumulation to area-wide first flakes more or less.  

Seems more likely for early November.

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17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CMC looks very similar :guitar:

I know. I saw. 

Would be great if the Euro had one OMG run just to get everyone hyped up (only for dreams to be crushed later). 

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11 minutes ago, mappy said:

I know. I saw. 

Would be great if the Euro had one OMG run just to get everyone hyped up (only for dreams to be crushed later). 

18z euro happy hour today.  Book it. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Man...I'm guessing this GFS cold bias is real. That's crazy. 

That's gotta be the coldest 3 day stretch any model has ever shown for mid November . 

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13 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yeah...but 60 on Monday leading into it. Torch.

I'm all in on the single digits following our cold powder, though.

I see no reason why 5-10 inches of cold powder and single digit temps in early November won't happen. I'm 100% in.

 

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5 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

I see no reason why 5-10 inches of cold powder and single digit temps in early November won't happen. I'm 100% in.

 

Maybe in Jackpotville, but to see the US50/301 corridor get almost a foot of cold powder in mid November would be insane.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Maybe in Jackpotville, but to see the US50/301 corridor get almost a foot of cold powder in mid November would be insane.

I was joking. We all know there's virtually zero chance of things playing out as depicted. But it's fun to dream!

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Just now, TowsonWeather said:

I was joking. We all know there's virtually zero chance of things playing out as depicted. But it's fun to dream!

I would love to see it.  It's an anomalous event and would potentially signal a good winter coming.  

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One thing that is nice to see (granted its November) is the relatively stable pattern throughout the run of the EPS, especially out west.  Reloading of the Aleutian low and higher heights up and down the west coast.  As has been said before, Nov certainly looks to be on the chilly side but hopefully the stability will roll into DJFM 

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

One thing that is nice to see (granted its November) is the relatively stable pattern throughout the run of the EPS, especially out west.  Reloading of the Aleutian low and higher heights up and down the west coast.  As has been said before, Nov certainly looks to be on the chilly side but hopefully the stability will roll into DJFM 

This storm will establish the pattern for the entire winter. Atmospheric memory. Days and days of snow. Die is cast. It’s set in stone. The kicker has never missed a FG

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12 minutes ago, H2O said:

This storm will establish the pattern for the entire winter. Atmospheric memory. Days and days of snow. Die is cast. It’s set in stone. The kicker has never missed a FG

And if its not this storm, its the next one.  Mountain Torques and wooly caterpillars and stuff.

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35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Maybe in Jackpotville, but to see the US50/301 corridor get almost a foot of cold powder in mid November would be insane.

I guess you missed the Nov 11, 1987 thundersnow storm that dropped over a foot.

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Personally, I'm not enthused by the setup next week. It's one thing when cold HP is established but gets really tricky banking on an early season arctic front to clear in time AND have a perfectly timed wave develop and run the boundary while we're on the cold side. Climo will fight this type of event tooth and nail. I'm not saying I don't think there's a chance just that I think climo will prevail and the reality will be rain/cold front/cold dry. We'll see. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Personally, I'm not enthused by the setup next week. It's one thing when cold HP is established but gets really tricky banking on an early season arctic front to clear in time AND have a perfectly timed wave develop and run the boundary while we're on the cold side. Climo will fight this type of event tooth and nail. I'm not saying I don't think there's a chance just that I think climo will prevail and the reality will be rain/cold front/cold dry. We'll see. 

 

I agree. Setup is not one that ever really works for us, and that's in January and February. Good luck in November. But I hope I'm wrong.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Personally, I'm not enthused by the setup next week. It's one thing when cold HP is established but gets really tricky banking on an early season arctic front to clear in time AND have a perfectly timed wave develop and run the boundary while we're on the cold side. Climo will fight this type of event tooth and nail. I'm not saying I don't think there's a chance just that I think climo will prevail and the reality will be rain/cold front/cold dry. We'll see. 

 

I think a phased solution like the GFS showed at 6z is very unlikely. But a northern stream vortmax causing a small area of light precip isn’t crazy. That’s more like what the euro has been showing. 

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I agree. Setup is not one that ever really works for us, and that's in January and February. Good luck in November. But I hope I'm wrong.

This setup is very similar to a number of events in 2013-14 and the one thing that is really interesting is the level of cold behind this front. That's like once in 20 year kind of stuff for the first half of November. Because the cold appears to be legit there's a case that can be made for a real shot at snow next week. What I'd like to see is the front amplify further allowing the trailing wave to lag and not run hot on the heels of the front itself. Maybe 12z leans that way...

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 Ok, so... 

Odds of a 6"+ snow is near zero, but what are we thinking about odds of a little snow TV up to a dusting (which is all any of us should realistically be hoping for at this point)?  50/50?

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2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

 Ok, so... 

Odds of a 6"+ snow is near zero, but what are we thinking about odds of a little snow TV up to a dusting (which is all any of us should realistically be hoping for at this point)?  50/50?

I’d say 80/20 against my yard seeing even snow tv.  Waiting on cold is much more precarious set up as others have said..but no sun angle issues so there’s that. 

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Looks like 12z GFS is going to go the way of the 06z GFS... frozen precip breaking out in OK/NW AR and into MO at hour 120...  More frozen precip than the 06z and 00z showed at the same time though as well

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