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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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I was in Coral Gables (freshman year at UMiami) for Andrew.  It was crazy, but it isn't too populous as you go south from there.  Can't imagine something close to that into FTL/Boca/West Palm.  Disaster.....
I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific.

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Could be very bad news for parts of FL. Some of the scenarios are pretty worrisome too with Dorian just stalling (which is a very real possibility) and dumping very significant rainfall totals. Could be very bad news...especially with coastal flooding/storm surge 

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I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yessir...I stayed on campus for a couple days, then they closed it and encouraged everyone to go home for a couple weeks. I had to get a ride to FLT airport at 5:00 am thru a curfew. Fun stuff Classes didn't started until later in Sept.

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Got until tomorrow  afternoon to make up my mind if I'm going or not.. just looked up flights on Priceline and BDL to WPB is only $197 bucks..

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15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Got until tomorrow  afternoon to make up my mind if I'm going or not.. just looked up flights on Priceline and BDL to WPB is only $197 bucks..

You will be missed. :(

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4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

You will be missed. :(

My girlfriends  dad lives in port saint lucie.. his house was built to withstand  a cat 4..  if it was a 5 might be a problem.. 

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37 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:
1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:
I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yessir...I stayed on campus for a couple days, then they closed it and encouraged everyone to go home for a couple weeks. I had to get a ride to FLT airport at 5:00 am thru a curfew. Fun stuff Classes didn't started until later in Sept.

I was south of the curfew/limited access area.  Had to go through military checkpoints to get home  I lived at the Crossing which is at 112st..lots of destruction being in the northern eyewall

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Euro Has not run but I Am very interested in where the turn west  occurs

alllnensembles turned Dorian South of 26.5 N (unless im reading map wrong )

inbelieve models underdo the quickness of the turn as well as when they’ve sniffed out a slight WSW dip it also tends to be underdone on modeling

Equally concerning is the stall on CMC\UkMET on 0z models just inland . That throws a wrench in 

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5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro Has not run but I Am very interested in where the turn west  occurs

alllnensembles turned Dorian South of 26.5 N (unless im reading map wrong )

inbelieve models underdo the quickness of the turn as well as when they’ve sniffed out a slight WSW dip it also tends to be underdone on modeling

Equally concerning is the stall on CMC\UkMET on 0z models just inland . That throws a wrench in 

Need to know how strong that High is near Bermuda and positioning as well

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The rainfall potential here scares me...I wouldn't be surprised to see some 15-25'' rainfall amounts. That would be catastrophic. Heck, even storm surge has me a bit worried. 

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I have a hypothetical and I wonder if I can get some opinions. My great uncle lives in Sarasota just off the beach. His house is at best a few feet above sea level. If Dorian ends up plowing straight through central Florida and emerges into the Gulf around the Tampa area, Sarasota would have a strong onshore wind. Does anyone here believe it could be strong enough to pose a coastal flooding threat? I'm inclined to think this is a stretch, but I really don't know. 

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A few days ago in one of the other threads, i saw some of our mets posting about an north east turn and Dorian was not going to hit FL. I can't remember who all was posting that, but i do remember DIT chiming in and saying no turn, Dorian is heading straight for FL. Interesting now to see the newest model runs hinting at that recurve...we shall see

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28 minutes ago, MarkO said:

BOston to Orlando Saturday and return flight on Monday $300. Who's in? :D

I highly doubt the airport would be open Monday if current projections hold. 

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14 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

A few days ago in one of the other threads, i saw some of our mets posting about an north east turn and Dorian was not going to hit FL. I can't remember who all was posting that, but i do remember DIT chiming in and saying no turn, Dorian is heading straight for FL. Interesting now to see the newest model runs hinting at that recurve...we shall see

Based on what just happened with Puerto Rico a turned certainly can't be ruled out. Looks like this idea is related to the forward speed of Dorian. the 12z guidance though has a pretty strong clustering with this though. Steering flow looks to bring it right into FL too...but any weaknesses within the upper pattern could certainly change things.

05L_tracks_12z.png

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Not a great swell producer for Long Island and New England. 

Its an issue of fetch more so then strength. The tiny size just isn’t going to cut it for creating much swell with periods over 12 seconds. Any captured fetch will be aimed towards the SE. I still think we see some swell with sets to maybe 5-6’ for south facing beaches. But with swell periods below 13 seconds beach washovers and erosion seems unlikely. 

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I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured. 

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