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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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As currently modeled I look to take a direct hit, and not any fun like DIT would think. Lots of stress between work and getting house shuttered. Hoping future models are further N or S of current track.

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9 minutes ago, Modfan said:

As currently modeled I look to take a direct hit, and not any fun like DIT would think. Lots of stress between work and getting house shuttered. Hoping future models are further N or S of current track.

Best of luck to you.

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13 minutes ago, Modfan said:

As currently modeled I look to take a direct hit, and not any fun like DIT would think. Lots of stress between work and getting house shuttered. Hoping future models are further N or S of current track.

Check out the UKMET it has been nailing the track so far. It also has a second LF near Pensacola at 902 , dont know about that.....

Screenshot_20190829-135445_Chrome.jpg

IMG_20190829_135514.jpg

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured. 

Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though.

AL05_2019082912_GEFS_large.png

AL05_2019082900_ECENS_large.png

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Sandy's modeled trajectory was scheduled to do something similar to that EPS cluster and we all know that it wound up taking the southern route..   just sayn'

No analog per se, but sometimes it's hard to imagine thing and maybe that would help -

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30 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though.

AL05_2019082912_GEFS_large.png

AL05_2019082900_ECENS_large.png

oh yeah...I think into SNE is unlikely...but re-strengthening over the Atlantic and making additional landfall across the mid-Atlantic coast somewhere is certainly possible. 

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What do we know about that HMON model ?

It's clearly some form or another of a meso model, but I don't have much experience with using it as a prediction tool.

The 12z run took a strong Cat 4 across the northern borrows of Miami - pretty much exactly in a fashion I feared might happen yesterday when it appeared then a sharper west turn and farther south trajectory could unfold - reasoning contained...

It might be notable that a lot of guidance has been edging left, too.  Oper. Euro and so forth.

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11 minutes ago, Modfan said:

The only saving grace is we have 3-4 day a for it to adjust; praying GFS is wrong

It will be but further S track the euro depicts ain’t much better for you. 

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24 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Big drop in pressure tonight

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

down to 973mb 100 mph. Per recon

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What do we know about that HMON model ?

It's clearly some form or another of a meso model, but I don't have much experience with using it as a prediction tool.

The 12z run took a strong Cat 4 across the northern borrows of Miami - pretty much exactly in a fashion I feared might happen yesterday when it appeared then a sharper west turn and farther south trajectory could unfold - reasoning contained...

It might be notable that a lot of guidance has been edging left, too.  Oper. Euro and so forth.

Its the old gfdl. 

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HWRF
A hurricane model? 18z has a ~915mb. PLEASE make it STOP.
Tomorrow is a big model day, to say the least. I'm loaded for BEAR,  propane topped-off, Generac ready to crank.
My Davis took a "hit" a few week back. Td and wind speed not recording, thinking it took a lightning strike.
Back-up is a TWI-8000. Ah I've been wanting to seat for months now. No strength, still in a-fib. Recovery has been to slow for my liking. Figures that a possible storm of a lifetime and just my luck.
Made arrangements today with my neighbor to get it installed Saturday.
I'd prefer not to hear the whistle of the wind. You get up about 85-90mph the pitch and roar increases, the crackling of tree limbs snapping followed by a dull thud only to find out it missed 30ft and fell away from the house. You get into D4 without then you never want to experience again.
As depicted now regardless of exact landfall the forest is going to lose many a tree thus extending the isolation. Probably more than a week!         

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11 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

HWRF
A hurricane model? 18z has a ~915mb. PLEASE make it STOP.
Tomorrow is a big model day, to say the least. I'm loaded for BEAR,  propane topped-off, Generac ready to crank.
My Davis took a "hit" a few week back. Td and wind speed not recording, thinking it took a lightning strike.
Back-up is a TWI-8000. Ah I've been wanting to seat for months now. No strength, still in a-fib. Recovery has been to slow for my liking. Figures that a possible storm of a lifetime and just my luck.
Made arrangements today with my neighbor to get it installed Saturday.
I'd prefer not to hear the whistle of the wind. You get up about 85-90mph the pitch and roar increases, the crackling of tree limbs snapping followed by a dull thud only to find out it missed 30ft and fell away from the house. You get into D4 without then you never want to experience again.
As depicted now regardless of exact landfall the forest is going to lose many a tree thus extending the isolation. Probably more than a week!         

stay safe......still time left models everywhere

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Regardless of modeling, August has been a wet month for St Lucie County South to Palm Beach; we don't need any more rain.

Currently getting bands of showers and storms pin wheeling in of the ocean

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