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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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It is still very early for this but OTOH we're less than two months away from showtime.

My preliminary guess is 14/5/3 

I believe there may be an early season EC threat, but that is a shot in the dark at this point, obviously.  August ala Bob, Belle. 

Take 'em down

 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nino. May lower overall activity, but as usual, it's the pattern that matters most for us. 

It's also a weak Nino (and actually using 3.4 criteria we have officially met the criteria) and I'm sure there are other factors which can certainly outweigh this.

Anyways with climate change and all I don't think the whole ENSO correlation to tropical activity has as much merit as it used to have. I may be wrong since I'm going off memory, but haven't the past few Nino's actually had above-average activity in the Atlantic? With the AMO looking like it is transitioning towards the negative phase I wonder if this starts to take dominance. I haven't looked at the AMM but will have to see how that transitions moving through the spring. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's also a weak Nino (and actually using 3.4 criteria we have officially met the criteria) and I'm sure there are other factors which can certainly outweigh this.

Anyways with climate change and all I don't think the whole ENSO correlation to tropical activity has as much merit as it used to have. I may be wrong since I'm going off memory, but haven't the past few Nino's actually had above-average activity in the Atlantic? With the AMO looking like it is transitioning towards the negative phase I wonder if this starts to take dominance. I haven't looked at the AMM but will have to see how that transitions moving through the spring. 

Nino's typically have shear. But yeah I would guess east based has more of an effect vs central or west. And yes, whether it's AGW or not...a general warmer PAC probably throws off ENSO correlations a tad. As usual, so many things need to get factored in. It's never as simple as saying "well nino or nina mean this or that.."

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nino's typically have shear. But yeah I would guess east based has more of an effect vs central or west. And yes, whether it's AGW or not...a general warmer PAC probably throws off ENSO correlations a tad. As usual, so many things need to get factored in. It's never as simple as saying "well nino or nina mean this or that.."

My last semester I took a tropical meteorology class and the professor who taught it had his doctorate focused on tropical (and did a substantial amount of research with AEW's and the AEJ)...anyways it was an incredibly interesting class and we talked about so much which influences tropical...one of the more interesting things we discussed was actually tropical wave activity in and around the Indian Ocean as well as SST's across the Indian Ocean. Then there was the TUTT and it's influences in the Atlantic. 

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I don't toss out seasonal predictions, but I'm always all in on tropical. It's by far the most interesting type of wx to me. 

@weatherwiz, that class sounds awesome. I wish I had the opportunities to take a class like that in college. Thankfully, with the forecasters here and online sources, each year I am learning something new that (I think) is making me a better forecaster in this area. 

I wish I had more time to study the larger scale mechanisms that influence Atlantic activity, but it's hard with work and all. 

I'm not currently inclined to think this season is a dud in terms of activity, but what matters for most weenies and the general public is how many bona fide US threats we see. 

It has been an extraordinary run the last few seasons with very powerful landfalling hurricanes. We'll see if that streak continues. 

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't toss out seasonal predictions, but I'm always all in on tropical. It's by far the most interesting type of wx to me. 

@weatherwiz, that class sounds awesome. I wish I had the opportunities to take a class like that in college. Thankfully, with the forecasters here and online sources, each year I am learning something new that (I think) is making me a better forecaster in this area. 

I wish I had more time to study the larger scale mechanisms that influence Atlantic activity, but it's hard with work and all. 

I'm not currently inclined to think this season is a dud in terms of activity, but what matters for most weenies and the general public is how many bona fide US threats we see. 

It has been an extraordinary run the last few seasons with very powerful landfalling hurricanes. We'll see if that streak continues. 

It was quite an interesting class. I suggested it should be instituted into the major as a required class. It was offered as an elective and only b/c several students were interested in it. Even certain teleconnections such as the NAO, PDO, QBO, MJO were briefly touched upon. I was fortunate enough (and it's from the bored) to have had knowledge in all this, but for those in the class who didn't they were in awe. It's tough for schools though b/c they have to follow strict AMS regulations in terms of what is required.  

I'm with you...I wish I had more time as well. I thought when I was back in school I would explode with all the research ideas I had been working on for the years leading up to going back and have the time to do more with learning about the weather, but working two jobs and the course/work load threw all that out the window. 

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Big Swells is only legit weather effect that seems realistic from “cane season”

If lucky we'll get in a cone of uncertainty 5 days out or grazed by the spaghetti models...but ultimately blue balled, aka Eduardo'd 

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9 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

My last semester I took a tropical meteorology class and the professor who taught it had his doctorate focused on tropical (and did a substantial amount of research with AEW's and the AEJ)...anyways it was an incredibly interesting class and we talked about so much which influences tropical...one of the more interesting things we discussed was actually tropical wave activity in and around the Indian Ocean as well as SST's across the Indian Ocean. Then there was the TUTT and it's influences in the Atlantic. 

I took tropical meteorology during my semester "abroad" at UH Manoa. The only time we discussed TCs was the cases when the form from the TUTT (the prof's general reasoning being that we spend far more days without TCs than with them). Just a whole semester on sea/land breezes, trade winds, inversions, shear lines, etc. It was fascinating really. TCs are fairly obvious elements of a tropical forecast, but day to day tropical meteorology is so subtle.  

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First named storm down. GEFS hints at some activity in la-la land, perhaps the W Carib...we'll see. 

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FWIW I foresee a season that has an active coastal track similar to the peak years of the mid 1950s, as I think we will see a summer pattern similar to years like 1953 to 1955. 

And here's a contest you can enter in the main forum (a.k.a. the Quiet Room) ...

 

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. 

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

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Mishandling the MJO ?  ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ??  

Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May...    Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also.

In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year....   They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total...  and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992 ;)

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12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mishandling the MJO ?  ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ??  

Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May...    Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also.

In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year....   They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total...  and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992 ;)

Yeah basically the gfs would immediately stop the eastward progression of the wave. It conveniently did this over the carb a few days ago. 

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For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward
over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend.  Some gradual
development of this system is possible through early next week as
long as it remains over water.  Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern Mexico during the next few days.  Regular issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will begin at 2 AM EDT tonight with the
beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

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Will this be the year?:

A common refrain I presume is often heard across the North East coastal states during this time of year.  Rightfully so, as it's just simply a matter of time before SNE receives another direct hurricane landfall, or strike, upon its shores. 

Based on the official HURDAT2 record (dating back to 1851), the statistical return period for a direct hurricane landfall is once every 10 years.  Consequently, SNE is well overdue for just such an event, given it last occured in 1991.  The same applies for a major hurricane (MH) landfall, with a return rate of 56 years, that last took place in 1954. 

Of course, we all understand that these statistics don't neccesitate that a hurricane will make a landfall within the aforementioned calculated return intervals.  Case in point, three out of the four hurricane seasons between 1893 and 1896 had a direct hurricane landfall somewhere in SNE.  Ironically, it was immediately followed by an astonishing 38 year gap between direct landfalls (1896 to 1934).

It's also interesting to note that two different seasons in the aforementioned historical record (1869 & 1954) produced multiple SNE landfalls; each containing both a category-three and a category-two hurricane.  

Ultimately, the right atmospheric and oceanic conditions will conspire to add yet another SNE hurricane landfall to the historical record and, in doing so, answering the original question in the affirmative!

New England hurricane landfalls (1851-2018):

1858 Cat 1/2 (Storm 3) *

1869 Cat 3 (Storm 3)

1869 Cat 2 (Storm 10)

1879 Cat 1 (Storm 2)

1893 Cat 1 (Storm 4)

1894 Cat 1 (Storm 5)

1896 Cat 1 (Storm 2)

1924 Cat 1 (Storm 3) # 

1934 Cat 1 (Storm 7)

1938 Cat 3 (Storm 6)

1944 Cat 2 (Storm 7)

1954 Cat 3 (Carol)

1954 Cat 2/3 (Edna)

1960 Cat 2 (Donna)

1969 Cat 1 (Gerda)

1976 Cat 1 (Belle)

1985 Cat 1 (Gloria)

1991 Cat 2 (Bob)

2012 Cat 1 (Sandy) #

* Likely underestimated in reanalysis.

# No direct landfall, but still delivered HF winds. 

Totals and return intervals of each:

19 H strikes (8.8 years)

17 Landfalls (9.9 years)

3 MHs (56.0 years)

9 Cat 2 or 3 (18.7 years)

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The waters are extremely warm off the southern east coast and the Md Atlantic . 

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1954 Cat 3 (Carol)

1954 Cat 2/3 (Edna

Though Hazel went well inland, I think it produced Cat 1 winds in New England (BTV?)  It had the strongest winds of the 3 at our NNJ home, one of only 2 times I saw houses pasted with chopped leaves.  (And the 2nd was tender June leaves, not tough old October ones.)

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I certainly won't cheer on a direct hit (don't want to see destruction to life and property), but at some point it's bound to happen and a hurricane is one of the few weather phenomenon I haven't directly experienced. (Too young for Gloria, in northern VT during Bob, Irene and Sandy were kinda meh in Boston). I'm probably more excited to have hurricanes to track soon. It's a long gap between late nor'easter threats and cane season, and one can only weenie out over heat and dews so much.

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Won't be long before JB throws around a few weenie tweets. In fact, he probably has.

 

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10 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Hurricane Edna was a major, the eye passed near/over MVY then Barnstable.

Actually, the NHC best track committee reduced the landfall intensity to 95 kt in MA, in their reanalysis.  It's conceivable it was still a Cat 3 at landfall, but it has officially been reanalyzed to an upper-end Cat 2...borderline 3.  

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/UShurrs_detailed.html

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