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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Has this been a historically slow season so far or am I perceiving things wrong? I mean not even a low probability hatched area on the five day outlook for days at a time?

This is the quietest start to hurricane season since 1999 (fact courtesy of Phil Klotzbach). 

1999 ended up with 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and most notably, 5 major (4 category four) hurricanes including Bret and Floyd.

There’s still ~85 percent of historical activity left.

We’re just getting started. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is the quietest start to hurricane season since 1999 (fact courtesy of Phil Klotzbach). 

1999 ended up with 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and most notably, 5 major (4 category four) hurricanes including Bret and Floyd.

There’s still ~85 percent of historical activity left.

We’re just getting started. 

Heh ...these kind of statistical comparison for drama and affectation, they don't fall on me with much weight... 

Means nothing... The antecedent conditions in 1999 may or may not bear resemblance to this year's.. And making that determination is too complex to look at mere SAL or ENSO ...  (not that you are...just in general) in quadrature.  There's a lot to that integral.  The AMOC is totally different...  The AO dominant summer plays an indirect roll, too .. how these interact with other forcing domains and emerge different mitgators or vice versa... oy, litany of contributors.   To this point in time, it is probably closer to even probability, either way, that both seasons are in a dearth ... in a sense, as in two different people entirely happening to roll the same dice combination.   

If it can be physically demonstrated that the governing parametric variables in bother years are say... within the 90th plus comparison-percentile, in terms of dominant influence? ( hint, not likely...) than perhaps the comparison has more momentum.  

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh ...these kind of statistical comparison for drama and affectation, they don't fall on me with much weight... 

Means nothing... The antecedent conditions in 1999 may or may not bear resemblance to this year's.. And making that determination is too complex to look at mere SAL or ENSO ...  (not that you are...just in general) in quadrature.  There's a lot to that integral.  The AMOC is totally different...  The AO dominant summer plays an indirect roll, too .. how these interact with other forcing domains and emerge different mitgators or vice versa... oy, litany of contributors.   To this point in time, it is probably closer to even probability, either way, that both seasons are in a dearth ... in a sense, as in two different people entirely happening to roll the same dice combination.   

If it can be physically demonstrated that the governing parametric variables in bother years are say... within the 90th plus comparison-percentile, in terms of dominant influence? ( hint, not likely...) than perhaps the comparison has more momentum.  

Yeah, I didn’t intend to assert that we’re due for an active season because of that fact. I think that season had a Niña going so right there you have a big contrast, among other things as you alluded.

It’s always fascinating to me, but the next few weeks will be interesting from an environmental conditions tracking standpoint.

Even with the fading of the niño I think we’re more or less where we were when looking at preseason predictions. Some factors favor activity, but that’s almost equally counterbalanced by negating indicators. There’s no really strong signal either way IMO.

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17 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

It's been quiet so far but recent active years have shown the same cards. 

2017 springs to mind. Not that a repeat is in the offing.

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On ‎8‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 12:08 PM, Dan76 said:

Only takes one in the wrong hood to screw things up,hopefully not mine.

With 1992 the poster child for that truism.  Had Andrew been named by today's date?

Edit:  According to wiki, Andrew was declared a named TS at 12z on the 17th.

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Granted ... I really didn't start paying that close attention to the tropics until I was mid way through me teenage years ... and also, checked out a bit during my early 20s, but of all other years remaining, I don't recall mid August with such a dearth in activity. That's just fantastically pathetic out there... wow.

That 20/20 invest over the outer banks? Joke ... .that's merely desperation gasps by an office going mad in corporeal boredom -

Sorry ... this isn't Saharan air/dust doing all that suppression.  no f'n way man.  I realize folks like and need things to make sense, and want neat, tidy explanation and all, but there's more to this suppression than that one factor. 

For those of you "super responsible intellects" among us that wantonly root on dystopian carnage ... you should be happy about this...  Oh you miss out on the immediate gratification of dead beloved pets bobbing in the flotsem of harbor aftermath ... sure.. But, the upshot?  Think how unprepared the dumb down complacent civility will be next year!  

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Granted ... I really didn't start paying that close attention to the tropics until I was mid way through me teenage years ... and also, checked out a bit during my early 20s, but of all other years remaining, I don't recall mid August with such a dearth in activity. That's just fantastically pathetic out there... wow.

That 20/20 invest over the outer banks? Joke ... .that's merely desperation gasps by an office going mad in corporeal boredom -

Sorry ... this isn't Saharan air/dust doing all that suppression.  no f'n way man.  I realize folks like and need things to make sense, and want neat, tidy explanation and all, but there's more to this suppression than that one factor. 

For those of you "super responsible intellects" among us that wantonly root on dystopian carnage ... you should be happy about this...  Oh you miss out on the immediate gratification of dead beloved pets bobbing in the flotsem of harbor aftermath ... sure.. But, the upshot?  Think how unprepared the dumb down complacent civility will be next year!  

So suppression depression this year, Galveston 1900 repeat next year. Got it. 

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

So suppression depression this year, Galveston 1900 repeat next year. Got it. 

1900 was actually a VERY quiet hurricane season in terms of numbers (7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major).  In fact, the Galveston Hurricane was the 1st storm of the season!  

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Cranky is all over this and has been 

2 weeks ado he said most significant shot besides a weak TD on SW periphery of Atlantic high (as they round corner ) will be. Something near the east coast approaching Sept 1 as maybe some sort of hybrid storm from remnants of a front 

Not any Mets I follow have  seen anything that justifies NHC recent upgrade to seasonal totals 

 

quickly regarding crankywxguy Not anticipating much but after people bad mouthed the guy so much , I took a look at him and his archived forecasts. He nailed the i-95 winter minus the freak 16” bomb coastal that overperformed and he has been all over tropics as well as all over the summer pattern for i-95 as well

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NOAA’s update is reasonable IMO. The numerical forecast range portion is really just an update from the activity we’ve already seen (two named storms, of which one was a hurricane). The percentage portion isn’t that huge a jump either. They just happen to favor above average more than near normal at this time. They’re not on an island there.

As for the conditions—they’re hostile without a doubt currently, but there are also a number of factors that favor a conducive overall environment in parts of the basin if things ease up, especially with regard to the incredibly high stability in the MDR.

Not saying 2005 or anything close is walking through the door—I think the ceiling lowers each week after the 20th we don’t get things to pop—but I still don’t think this has the look of a quiet peak

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this looks like an alright signal for some EC tropical impacts. Not saying SNE specific but not all dissimilar to some of the analog years presented by the NHC esrlier this year.

 Of course we need a storm or two to track, so we'll see. Not a bad look to enter September.

f288 (1).gif

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The disturbance in the Bahamas has a spin to it right now, but can't tell if it is at the low to mid-levels.  Convection is spread out currently.  Not a conducive position currently to develop.  Convection would have to become more concentrated with time.  I don't think this is the same system the global models show blowing up off the SE US coast by Labor Day, it could be another wave.

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3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Wow that Chantal development must be a bit of a surprise given the percentages and it’s latitude?

Look at the Bahamas wave, it appears to have a strong mid-level circulation already, and could be relating to the surface now.

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29 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Wow that Chantal development must be a bit of a surprise given the percentages and it’s latitude?

I don't think it's anything too extraordinary. It's been riding along the Gulf Stream. Also, being caught up in the westerlies I think lessens effective shear. There was a hurricane that held cat 4 strength some years back in that area. Forget which one it was, but that was something to behold.

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14 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I don't think it's anything too extraordinary. It's been riding along the Gulf Stream. Also, being caught up in the westerlies I think lessens effective shear. There was a hurricane that held cat 4 strength some years back in that area. Forget which one it was, but that was something to behold.

 

494px-Alex_2004-08-05.jpg

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On 8/18/2019 at 8:41 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cranky is all over this and has been 

2 weeks ado he said most significant shot besides a weak TD on SW periphery of Atlantic high (as they round corner ) will be. Something near the east coast approaching Sept 1 as maybe some sort of hybrid storm from remnants of a front 

Not any Mets I follow have  seen anything that justifies NHC recent upgrade to seasonal totals 

 

quickly regarding crankywxguy Not anticipating much but after people bad mouthed the guy so much , I took a look at him and his archived forecasts. He nailed the i-95 winter minus the freak 16” bomb coastal that overperformed and he has been all over tropics as well as all over the summer pattern for i-95 as well

How was his Hurricane Michael forecast

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

 

494px-Alex_2004-08-05.jpg

Thank you! What was its name? Can't remember for the life of me. Also, imagine the collective terror if you could transplant a storm with that structure 400 miles west.

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13 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Thank you! What was its name? Can't remember for the life of me. Also, imagine the collective terror if you could transplant a storm with that structure 400 miles west.

Alex 2004. Yeah that's a giant eye and CDO, "annular"

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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How was his Hurricane Michael forecast

He's terrible. I can nail a winter if I say minus this storm or that storm. I've seen his tweets and forecasts.

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2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Wow that Chantal development must be a bit of a surprise given the percentages and it’s latitude?

 

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I don't think it's anything too extraordinary. It's been riding along the Gulf Stream. Also, being caught up in the westerlies I think lessens effective shear. There was a hurricane that held cat 4 strength some years back in that area. Forget which one it was, but that was something to behold.

Hoth’s right—nothing extraordinary. It is a little interesting to note though that two of our named Atlantic storms had 30% or less odds immediately preceding classification. I think Andrea went from lemon to named storm too.

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