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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not even sure which feature he's worried about?

The one invest near Florida is hot, but there is no way in Hades that thing is eerily similar to 1938.   There's another one in the CV transit region way out east of the Islands there that's now warm...  Maybe that one ... in a week's worth of pattern modulation might ( coin flip ) take on some kind of analog... But again... the at this time predicate seems to be getting ignored in lieu of some sort of wanton melodrama or histrionics -

Coastal denizens need to be prepared at all times anyway...

The more I think about this ... I think what he's after is less than analytic in general,...and more about "fuzzy feellings on the back of one's neck"  ...  and the ole, " I got this feelin' this year could still be bad" - okay...  I can dig it :)  

 

 

18z GFS is more less what he's looking for synoptically but there's simply nothing there. I don't believe it. This needs to establish a core soon or it's going to become a significant concern for many.

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3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Come on John, we can be more sincere than that.  We know what he means.  This is after all a tropical weather subtopic.

NO... I don't think we do haha

But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season...  When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one..

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NO... I don't think we do haha

But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season...  When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one..

Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season.  Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing.  I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world.  Not again.

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season.  Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing.  I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world.  Not again.

Seriously?  Not having power for a day was the worst feeling in the world?

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SandySurvivor -

If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period....

That said, at this time this is no threat to you.  NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous.  Nothing.  

This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency.  Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint:  THERE ARE NONE. 

It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included...  that tells us there are no signs.  Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise...  by all means, enlighten us.  Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. 

That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME.

Am I gettin' thru.  Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this.. 

 

JMA is a significant hit for parts of the area

 

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season.  Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing.  I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world.  Not again.

Wait until we get a mega CME. Goodbye grid for a long long time.

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The 0z Euro depicts an U/L low pressure near 50/50 at 96hr. modulate that LP less deep in time- as well as a less-than-modeled s/w rounding the base of that deep trough in Southern CA, could be more interesting. Otherwise the flow is too flat and it's an easy recurve. Whether a system even gets going....

Haven't looked at anything 0z except the 0z euro op and gfs, and fwiw.

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