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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

98L is the East Coast threat we have been talking about.  It has a large surface circulation that remains broad and not well-defined quite yet.  However, convection is centralized and I believe 90L in the central Northern Gulf is organizing.

Something is going to hit the east coast this summer 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Legacy gfs has dorian Into the gulf

I saw that and 12z NAM. Would probably cause I'mpacts for atleast the Cape... as of now I think neither will happen.. ofcourse TWC is starting to make it seem like the Northeast could get hit by something  big..

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Wondering if that NAM's "Predecessor Rain Event" should be taken seriously or not. 

In one school, the NAM tends to over-emphasize the NW influence of cyclonic events as a general bias tendency, over the far west and northwest Atlantic, concerning extra-tropical cyclones.  Not sure if that also is true for weakly bounded and/or developing TCs that are in the process of being sucked up into the westerlies. 

Right now, TD 6 looms out there.  It has the old single tilted CB look, with shearing going on from the N clearly suggestive via various satellite channels.  But, there is a coherent llv closed circulation and it sets proximal to deep oceanic heat content that is clearly coupled to the lower troposphere ...so given any relaxation at all, that system ( I would not be surprised) may get better organized at a proficient rate.  This would be a short window of opportunity - although, in a lowering SRS inside the westerly channeling blah blah.   In any case, as it is moving up about 400 km or so east of the mid Atlantic, we see a NAM QPF eruption/banded in a quasi arc extending roughly mid Long Island to NE Mass. That's pretty textbook "PRE," as they tend to occur on the polar side of TCs that are in the processes of recurving into the westerlies. That definition doesn't really discuss or limit the event based upon how well structure the the involved TC is - so the extend of organization may not mater. 

I'm not sure the NAM is very trustworthy in this specific area of deterministic weather forecasting - I'm guessing no?  But it is by definition a meso model so -

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

TD6 is a mess

Give it some time. Here is the high-resolution output for the PRE (Predecessor Rainfall Event) from 18z NAMNEST.

NAMNSTMA_prec_radar_030.png.ca90c4bba2a8a28fbb22c1e34a189394.png

Edit: JMA is a double SNE-special from TD6 and Dorian.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Give it some time. Here is the high-resolution output for the PRE (Predecessor Rainfall Event) from 18z NAMNEST.

NAMNSTMA_prec_radar_030.png.ca90c4bba2a8a28fbb22c1e34a189394.png

Edit: JMA is a double SNE-special from TD6 and Dorian.

 

 

Intensity busts as well as near stationary cyclones, etc. other factors still display the weaknesses of today's models.

Watching this weak TD curve 350mi. SE of Nantucket is boring, though

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40 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I may Chase Dorian if it goes Cat 2 +

300$ round trip to FL

Cat. 2+ milf?

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Erin is with us now, TD6 has been upgraded according to the NAVY site and the 00z Best track site ATCF site.  Models are coming west with the track of Erin, very close now to the benchmark and we have another three days before she can reach our latitude.

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9 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

rainy wed everning commute and everning incoming

It was forecast to become a TS but remain offshore, Looks to get some PRE in here though from her, 0.50"-1.00" Weds night into Thurs am here.

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5 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

0z gfs has Dorian missing florida and heading for moorehead city NC

Hope so, but still planning like I Might see a Cat 2 in S FL

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Remarkable agreement among the GFS ensemble 12-member suite provided at PSU E-Wall's web-source, that Dorian will modestly intensify through 120 hours, ending in a position abeam of midriff Florida over the western Bahamas.  

I haven't seen the individual EPS members but the blend is a bit more smeared comparing to the GEFS. Nevertheless, they do average a weakly bounded cyclone in that similar vicinity just E or partially eclipsing land at 120 hours.  

One curious note: both the EPS and the GEPs ( Canadian ensembles ) are attempting to develop what looks similar to an October 'climate low' in the mid Gulf - it's not a real Glossary expression. Anyway, the GEFs do hint of this, but it is much more coherently materialized in these other two ensemble cluster means. I'm curious why they are doing so, but have hypothesis -  

From late September thru early Decembers, it is not uncommon for models to attempt this sort of Gulf of Mexico vortex look. This is classic looking in that regard, the only problem is, vastly earlier than normal.  Nevertheless, I suspect it wise to consider it in the same vane. The rub there is that sometimes quasi-asymmetric systems do sort of bend over initially from baroclinic instability at that time of year, in the Gulf, and then acquire warm symmetry in time. Usually up underneath an early/amplified Perennial North American Pattern ( PNAP ) construct when it does.  I'm wondering if these models are over sensitive; they have been trying at least excuse imaginable on every run to suppress the mid latitude summer ... all summer long, with western heights, and structuring some sort of trough ( usually over blown) back East.  It may be more than muse to consider that entity. Because the vitality and most important, reality of any such object in the Gulf at the beginning of the middle range would play a plausible role in the future of Dorian.

Some of these operational versions attempt to then vaguely Donna-analog Dorian.. Heh, fun entertainment but, too many uncertainties concomitant with tropical modeling at that range, and particularly endemic to the pattern next week is uncertainty.  The introduction of trough in both space and time, inducing that coastal scrape this is all new, and troughs have been tending to flatten in mid ranges --> short range all season long.  Past doesn't dictate the future...  What are we leaving out here ... basically .1% confidence out of 99.9% uncertainty. 

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By the way ... 

I also am wondering if we may see a more robust period of TWs squirt off western Africa over over the next two weeks at some point.  Not for not, right amid the climate bell-curve anyway. However, there are some clues in play that favor that.   

The orientation/distribution of larger scale UVM tendencies has arrived at a dipolar negative western -central N. Atlantic, with a pervasive and coherent positive tendency over all of the African continent extending east to west along the sub-Saharan TW conduit region.  There are features also embedded in that monsoonal band a bit more robustly now than prior times.  

Supposition/hypothesis... But my personal feeling is that ... yes, Saharan Dust/dry air has been present this year, but frankly, I've monitored that metric spanning some fifteen years and this year has not seemed appreciably worse than any other year - despite other's opinions to the contrary.  Nevertheless, I am willing to nod to that mitigate as being present to some degree.   What really stands out to me as causal in the dearth thus far is the lower TW frequency emerging off of Africa/in transit prior to doing so.   If you mix up weak wave tendencies with SAL mitigation ( and it probably doesn't help that the QBO is statistically out of phase for greater activity this season ) that combination is more likely culpable.   If we are right about a period of stronger TW ejecta off of Africa, that might give the CV region some entertainment value.   

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

By the way ... 

I also am wondering if we may see a more robust period of TWs squirt off western Africa over over the next two weeks at some point.  Not for not, right amid the climate bell-curve anyway. However, there are some clues in play that favor that.   

The orientation/distribution of larger scale UVM tendencies has arrived at a dipolar negative western -central N. Atlantic, with a pervasive and coherent positive tendency over all of the African continent extending east to west along the sub-Saharan TW conduit region.  There are features also embedded in that monsoonal band a bit more robustly now than prior times.  

Supposition/hypothesis... But my personal feeling is that ... yes, Saharan Dust/dry air has been present this year, but frankly, I've monitored that metric spanning some fifteen years and this year has not seemed appreciably worse than any other year - despite other's opinions to the contrary.  Nevertheless, I am willing to nod to that mitigate as being present to some degree.   What really stands out to me as causal in the dearth thus far is the lower TW frequency emerging off of Africa/in transit prior to doing so.   If you mix up weak wave tendencies with SAL mitigation ( and it probably doesn't help that the QBO is statistically out of phase for greater activity this season ) that combination is more likely culpable.   If we are right about a period of stronger TW ejecta off of Africa, that might give the CV region some entertainment value.   

Mike Ventrice noted there is a suppressive Kelvin wave passing over Africa the next few weeks. I know little about such things, but he says that one would expect it to tamp down any wave activity. Who knows. 

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It's a fine analysis by a couple of mid-Century starched dry pasty robots of early era Television so concomitant with that era of American history.  But man - how egregious was the sexism embedded in that? 

It was amusing enough when the nerd with the high-tech pointer, pants pulled up way too high around a frame that's substantially frail compared to woman of today ( raised by hormone meats no less ), had the audacity to referred to "Donna" as "she."  Ooh.  That pushed up a smile right there!  But the hilarity kicked in when he grinds it. He actually interrupting hims self to say, "And as it - or to be more precise, I should say "she" - " ... 

Man, that was awesome... 

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13 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Mike Ventrice noted there is a suppressive Kelvin wave passing over Africa the next few weeks. I know little about such things, but he says that one would expect it to tamp down any wave activity. Who knows. 

That may be the case ... absolutely. 

I am an honest genuine poster that qualifies everything with confidence adjectives.   As in, "suppposition/hypothesis" - honestly, I was just basing it on observations now.  Perhaps V is deducing modeling - I mean duh, he says 'next two weeks'    I also did wonder if there was a large K-wave event rippling through the hemisphere when I noted the dipole construction of UVM tendencies.  I didn't get into it because unfortunately, folks tl;dr everything these days in lieu of instant gratification from the psychotropic addiction of media spectra, and if they are not getting overly stimulated NOW they move on.  Cute ancillary aspect of high- tech that is destroying the "enjoyment" much less virtuosity of a good read - blah blah...  Conceding to forces one cannot control - I just kept imagining to my self,  any such event ripple passing through and the current dipole might tend to reverse?  Then, residual ( because they were initially robust ;) ) TW then time with a better Atlantic.  See... KW don't absolutely mean anything. We can work with them here.  ha

Actually since I posted that I saw the Euro spins up a TC almost immediately leaving Africa on D 9 ... interesting or not

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16 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Dorian looking heathier.. 65knots winds on latest pass.. wonder if it misses PR also.. seems further east than models

Thought so too - 

It may be why some of the ensemble members and the actual tropical suite's shown some recent right bias in the track guidance.  TPC didn't seem to comment on it as of 5am but there 11 should be out shortly -

 

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