SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

[Hambone]

9 hours ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said:

Yikes, a friend of mine has a flight to Orlando on Thursday 

He should rethink that.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Love the 18z gfs at 126hrs. Snow in Labrador and a cane coming up the southeast coast.

That's actually been a concurrent deal on that ~ time range going back many runs actually...  yeah, it's interesting- something more akin to mid October perhaps.  I'm fairly certain snow in that part of eastern Ontario is a bit of a seasonal anomaly for early September - even at that latitude ... Let's not derail the thread - take it over to the discussion

[codfishsnowman]

35 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Love the 18z gfs at 126hrs. Snow in Labrador and a cane coming up the southeast coast.

thats early for snow...even up there...that will def be man snow

[ineedsnow]

Advisory at 5. 970mb.  Recon just found 948. Insane deepening now

[Bostonseminole]

yeap, you guys were right.. that's insane deepening.

[Bostonseminole]

225600 2521N 07101W 6958 02958 9788 +117 +107 037098 104 097 008 00
225630 2520N 07059W 6963 02893 9717 +119 //// 035111 116 104 008 01
225700 2519N 07057W 6938 02842 9615 +135 +129 037090 104 112 009 00
225730 2518N 07055W 6933 02811 9535 +170 +111 054050 059 111 029 03
225800 2516N 07054W 6937 02786 9489 +196 +085 069029 033 046 002 03
225830 2514N 07053W 6922 02792 9461 +213 +069 079015 022 038 001 03
225900 2513N 07052W 6949 02758 9473 +203 +080 242011 024 035 001 00
225930 2512N 07050W 7000 02717 9507 +193 +094 239033 036 055 000 03
230000 2512N 07048W 6923 02832 9552 +169 +083 229054 071 083 009 03
230030 2511N 07045W 6951 02861 9650 +128 +121 226098 108 101 015 00
230100 2510N 07043W 6963 02919 9747 +117 //// 218101 104 099 014 01
230130 2509N 07041W 6981 02957 9810 +115 //// 216097 103 091 020 01

[Dpb1983]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-79.35,29.32,646/loc=-65.665,14.407

mesmerizing!

[PowderBeard]

[Hazey]

Yup. Beast mode getting it done. Impressive RI period. Going to be a rough ride for anyone in the path.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I had high confidence pressure was 940’s ... it as much in winds catching up already 

[Bostonseminole]

looks like 951mb 

[dryslot]

There is no hiding in Florida from Dorian, This is an impressive deepening cyclone to say the least.

 

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

HMON may not have been right about the timing of RI but... holy shit -

this is one of the most rapid improvements in sate presentation over the course of mere hours I think I can recall - we'll see if it translates to pressure and wind.

Micheal was a close second?

[Snow88]

0z tropical  models have shifted more east

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0z tropical  models have shifted more east

Good

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0z tropical  models have shifted more east

Ya pretty far east

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0z tropical  models have shifted more east

How many into Brooklyn?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya pretty far east

Canadian High ftw?  Although many weenies would be disappointed a full ots miss would be awesome.  Partial landfall, slow crawler up the coast would not be so good but better than direct hit of course.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0z tropical  models have shifted more east

Which 0z are already out?  Paid sites I assume?

[#NoPoles]

When I was on Parris Island, we had TS conditions that shut down training for 1 day but we didnt have to evac. I bet they are trying to decide if they need to pack up all the recruits and move them inland. 

[Bostonseminole]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Which 0z are already out?  Paid sites I assume?

early 0Z models..

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This east shift isn't really new. 

Looking back over previous cycles the models really began that trend a while ago. 

That said I would certainly hope no one's thinking they're out of the woods on this thing down there. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh. That's not demonstrative really. 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This east shift isn't really new. 

Looking back over previous cycles the models really began that trend a while ago. 

That said I would certainly hope no one's thinking they're out of the woods on this thing down there. 

What's good for Florida may be hell for the Carolina's. 

[78Blizzard]

It's still progged as a CAT 2 in NE FL on Wednesday evening.  Very slow moving.  If that high to our north is slow to move out later in the week, this could come closer to us as it deteriorates in cooler waters.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

early 0Z models..

 

What the link to that one?? All my stuff got deleted.. I use tropical tidbits for now

[Baroclinic Zone]

Beast mode

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Beast mode

Yes sir, he has been in beast mode since around 5:00 pm EDT yesterday.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Sunrise approaching Dorian this morning, the hurricane should be visible completely by another half hour to an hour.

[ineedsnow]

Fishy fishy?