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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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HMON has a 3-hour intensification rate of 10 mb by 20+ knots of wind... dropping from just under 970 mb to the upper 950s with wind from 99 knots to 121.  And it doesn't stop there.  Another three hours and it's down to 950 mb by 130 knots!  

That's ah ... heh.  The only problem is ... it has it doing that now - which it isn't.   Interesting...  I mean it may be intensifying, it's the rate though.

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Looks like Dorian may miss Florida.   I had not paid any attention to the storm for us New Englanders but just looked at the Euro and it has Dorian as a 950mb cane just barely off Cape Hatteras to SE of the benchmark to about Eastport Maine.   Just close enough for James to honk a little.   Should be some nice surf on south facing beaches next week

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Euro just south of the benchmark at 192. Plenty of time to back it NW a bit and get some good snows west of the river. Rain for James. 

Yore cold, Yore cane, Yore cold

  • Haha 2

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6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Definitely  a 4 or 5 now... improved greatly now  cant wait for recon

Yeah I'd certainly peg it at at least a mid-level 4. Maybe 135-140. Maybe higher.

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

not sure i wold got that far maybe 125 -130.. but looks great.

More 

this thing is undergoing RI , it’s pretty clear 

plane will have center fix with winds by 8pm

thats 140 EZ

Its one of the nicer cores I’ve seen . This aint a 3 now 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

More 

this thing is undergoing RI , it’s pretty clear 

plane will have center fix with winds by 8pm

thats 140 EZ

Its one of the nicer cores I’ve seen . This aint a 3 now 

maybe, but my 20 years of tracking these things, they sometimes look better than recon finds.. but I agree, it's one of the better looking ones.

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HMON may not have been right about the timing of RI but... holy shit -

this is one of the most rapid improvements in sate presentation over the course of mere hours I think I can recall - we'll see if it translates to pressure and wind.

image.thumb.png.b6ca1bad9afdba5b16138ddd50ecf5c6.png

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