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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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Yorian

Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is
heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and
this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after
that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western
Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more
to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the
United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly
different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the
multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to
focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error
is around 200 miles.

 

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Wow,

"... The NHC foreast is more aggressive than the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance...."

Although, I have noticed a tendency by NHC to 'enhance wording' if not biasing toward more intensity when these TCs start nearing civility - probably for the better PR -wise.  I mean, it's been a dearthy season of sitcom television and iPhone distractions.  Hard to image after Maria and so forth that society would be complacent, but that happens.  Short memories.   Not to mention, these sort of ephemeral natural disasters are obscuring these days behind the growing specter of GW ...

Still, they have the guidance and it's ligit - either way. That region near the Bahamas - as modeled in means from multiple sourcing - looks superb for strengthening.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I guess we have our new headlining news story for the holiday weekend in any case 

This is going to be awesome, hopefully it stalls right over Orlando for a few days

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What's peculiar to me is that the entire suite of various Global numerical models did not initialize Dorian very well on the 12z guidance cycle ... yet, they all take it through robust strengthening over a 24 to 36 hour period beginning pretty much now through tomorrow night.  

I dunno if there's much merit to the following thinking but that "seems" sort of dire to me - as in ...this means that an even deeper/structurally evolved entity entering that same favorable domain space ... might attain a status that exceeds the models by the time we get to that D4/5 window and this is knocking on the door ... 

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems destined for cat 4 LF

Man... I'll tell yeah... sea-level rise is already becoming a management problem in Miami at times of 'fair-weather' high tides.  

 

that would be                             bad

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On 8/24/2019 at 1:13 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Tropical depression 5 ...forecast to become a hurricane as it crosses NE Caribbean 

that is an example of the POLITICS of forecasting . Caribbean  Looks hostile l and would be lucky to make it thru as Tropical storm but IMO bc it’s close to islands Stewart is going with HRFW? And Cat 1. Good luck 

My worst post 

my bad 

This storm looks frightening as it has shifted so Far East that it went from crossing Hispaniola to going currently East of Puerto Rico as it strengthens . 

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Interesting to see if the ridge orientation 72-120 hours out takes on a pure W-E orientation or even possibly shifts to create a WSW motion . Also what latitude it’s at when it turns west and feels the ridge makes all the difference 

The fact this barely entered Caribbean really helped this become a disaster in THe making (avoiding land) and less favorable conditions 

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Interesting to see if the ridge orientation 72-120 hours out takes on a pure W-E orientation or even possibly shifts to create a WSW motion . Also what latitude it’s at when it turns west and feels the ridge makes all the difference 

The fact this barely entered Caribbean really helped this become a disaster in THe making (avoiding land) and less favorable conditions 

yeap, it took the perfect tract to avoid any disruption, only hope is the environment is not as good as forecasted as it nears FL.. I also agree this might jog WSW at some point, I think anywhere from Daytona Beach to Key West is still fair game.

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Interesting to see if the ridge orientation 72-120 hours out takes on a pure W-E orientation or even possibly shifts to create a WSW motion . Also what latitude it’s at when it turns west and feels the ridge makes all the difference 

The fact this barely entered Caribbean really helped this become a disaster in THe making (avoiding land) and less favorable conditions 

The Greater Antilles’ gain will be the US coast’s loss. I doubt Dorian would have been killed crossing Hispaniola given its ability to produce bouts of strong convection in the previously dry environment, but it would have had its ceiling greatly reduced. Now, I fear folks along the coast are going to be at the mercy of future eyewall replacement cycles. 

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeap, it took the perfect tract to avoid any disruption, only hope is the environment is not as good as forecasted as it nears FL.. I also agree this might jog WSW at some point, I think anywhere from Daytona Beach to Key West is still fair game.

Ya 

i was trying to see what size it’s forecast to be in 96-120 hours 

it’s tiny now

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21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Interesting to see if the ridge orientation 72-120 hours out takes on a pure W-E orientation or even possibly shifts to create a WSW motion . Also what latitude it’s at when it turns west and feels the ridge makes all the difference 

The fact this barely entered Caribbean really helped this become a disaster in THe making (avoiding land) and less favorable conditions 

Concerned about Miami  ...  

Here's the deal - 

Dorian is likely to exceed expectations for intensity guidance.  I've just seen this kind of beat before...where the models don't even initialize a system beyond depression, when it reality it's nearing hurrican strength ...yet they still collectively suggest near rapid intensification is plausible despite the weak bias out of the gate ( 12z suite).    It's moving up into a region that is going to be nothing but improving for TC structure/genesis.  It seems the models are tapping into this latter circumstance proficiently enough, but are not correctly accessing the inertia Dorian already had established.   That is troublesome...  

But mostly, it is the excessive thermal cline integration of ocean heat content it is moving toward, combine with superior shear - lack there off - that should have folks' attention. 

The reason this sticks Miami out like a sore thumb - despite the present concensus N of that latitude, is because strong/strengthening hurricanes gaining size, can synergistically enhance resistance to polarward motion because they "create their own environment."  Basically what is taking place when that happens is ... the outflow ring of the cyclone begins to elevate surface pressure...as well as breaks down steering fields on the polarward size of the cyclone, and the tracks can sometimes bend back west when that happens.  It may not be statistically entirely obvious that is what is happening, either, because of the surrounding synoptics are strong enough those forcing will damp the effect out - it's more like an effectiveness when other factors are relatively negligible, the cane will "moat" its self off/tend to do so..

I see Dorian moving into an environment of superior development, that is breaking down synoptically ...which might render it to a west bump out there in time.   Something to think about. It's a big maybe  and not a prediction... but you do have a bomb potentially hear, and one moving into temporarily induced deeper layer COL look to the troposphere, and I could see that do weird things. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Concerned about Miami  ...  

Here's the deal - 

Dorian is likely to exceed expectations for intensity guidance.  I've just seen this kind of beat before...where the models don't even initialize a system beyond depression, when it reality it's nearing hurrican strength ...yet they still collectively suggest near rapid intensification is plausible.    It's moving up into a region that is going to be nothing but improving for TC structure/genesis.  It seems the models are tapping into the former circumstance proficiently enough, but are not accessing the inertia Dorian already has established.   That's is troublesome...  

But mostly, it is the excessive thermal cline integration of ocean heat content it is moving toward, combine with superior shear - lack there off - that should have folks' attention. 

The reason this sticks Miami out like a sore thumb - despite the present concensus N of that latitude, is because strong/strengthening hurricanes gaining size, can synergistically enhance resistance to polarward motion because they "create their own environment."  Basically what is taking place when that happens is ... the outflow ring of the cyclone begins to elevate surface pressure...as well as breaks down steering fields on the polarward size of the cyclone, and the tracks can sometimes bend back west when that happens.  It may not be statistically entirely obvious that is what is happening, either, because of the surrounding synoptics are strong enough those forcing will damp the effect out - it's more like an effectiveness when other factors are relatively negligible, the cane will moot its self/tend to do so..

I see Dorian moving into an environment of superior development, that is breaking down synoptically ...which might render it to a west bump out there in time.   Something to think about. 

I lived in S Fl for a long while 

they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0

So much money along the water. Super wealth 

Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall 

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Wild guess here but residents of Palm Beach County, if directly impacted, would probably receive federal assistance "the likes of which has never been seen before".

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Storms firing in the NW quad around an apparent eye that has been forming over the past few hours, Better looking circulation and out flow developing too.

Dorian.gif

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I lived in S Fl for a long while 

they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0

So much money along the water. Super wealth 

Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall 

I was in Coral Gables (freshman year at UMiami) for Andrew.  It was crazy, but it isn't too populous as you go south from there.  Can't imagine something close to that into FTL/Boca/West Palm.  Disaster.....

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23 minutes ago, nutmegfriar said:

Wild guess here but residents of Palm Beach County, if directly impacted, would probably receive federal assistance "the likes of which has never been seen before".

Not if we nuke Dory first! Send in the B2s! Defend Mar-a-Lago to the last man!

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Such a strong forecast turn at a longitude as Far East as forecast leaves a lot of room for error imo . Maybe models will be consistent next 48 on Strenth of ridge but also where this does its turn 

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Such a strong forecast turn at a longitude as Far East as forecast leaves a lot of room for error imo . Maybe models will be consistent next 48 on Strenth of ridge but also where this does its turn 

Hope your right; I sit 45 miles south of Vero Beach and stress level about a 100! 

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4 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Hope your right; I sit 45 miles south of Vero Beach and stress level about a 100! 

Get after it...time to get excited for awesome

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I lived in S Fl for a long while 

they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0

So much money along the water. Super wealth 

Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall 

Expansion in size is a slam dunk... 

In fact, I was just noticing the extraordinarily massive spacial layout in west Atlantic, N and NE of Dorian, that as modeled is setting up a truly massive low level easterly anomaly. Given what is happening along with deep layer ridge pulsation during Dorian quasi hook back west ( SW of NS ) that combination of those two factors really just creates a particularly massive region conducive to cyclogenesis spread out over the entire region off the eastern Seaboard... Sandy did something similar but this is not to be consider an analog. 

Expanding in size and intensify.  I could see this having a tendency to generate an outer eye-wall given to this totality of events, but that's just because if the circulation grows immense that tends to happen. EWR's are not well understood...

The idea of involving more of S. Florida in surge is predicated on the assumption that Dorian does indeed "synergistically" feedback with strong systems in light steering environment.  Since Dorian appears slated to both destinies... I just thought it prudent to mention - but it's not actually modeled to do so.  As is, a trajectory as planned put S. Florida/Miami most likely in a N freshening breeze that starts to go storm force in a NW or off-shore component, which of course is a different impact scenario altogether. 

 

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