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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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Interesting watching this as a new englander moving to florida.

The IMBY-bullseye-turned-fish-storm is a familiar winter feeling..

How I feel about the storms is quite different, though.

Two feet of snow? No big deal.

90MPH winds and 8 inches of rain? No thanks.

 

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sitting here on the side of the FL Turnpike in FT Pierce work in on storm prep and the trends while encouraging do not change the fact I am still in line for a possible direct hit.  The next 24hrs of model runs are crucial here. 

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3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

What a hoot if this went from being a likely FL landfall to Newfoundland one instead.  Just a minor miss.  :)

Depends who you asked. I was laughed at in the main thread with scrape/ OTS call on Thursday. ;(

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5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where is the post?

I forget and too many pages to sift through. We'll see what happens.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I forget and too many pages to sift through. We'll see what happens.

You can easily find the post on your profile page.  Would take you a couple of minutes at most.  Where's the post????

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The 12z hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, have definitely trended back to the west and south.  And the interim 6z run of the Euro has also.  In fact the HMON now has a landfall just north of FL in Brunswick, GA and hugging the coast right up to Savannah.  Be interesting to see the 12z Euro.

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Just now, 78Blizzard said:

The 12z hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, have definitely trended back to the west and south.  And the interim 6z run of the Euro has also.  In fact the HMON now has a landfall just north of FL in Brunswick, GA and hugging the coast right up to Savannah.  Be interesting to see the 12z Euro.

"Trend" is not necessarily true, though. 

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A friend went to our house about noon, closed up the storm shutters and moved everything loose indoors.

He said about 3/4 of the houses in the community either had their shutters closed/boards up, or were working on it.

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4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where is the post?

What happened was on Wednesday, I made a post saying the best track was a scraper and OTS around 4pm, while pretty much every model was west into Florida bodily, and even the gulf including EC ensemble. The weenie mods didn't like my negativity and deleted the post ( but funny they allowed the cat5 into Miami/Panhandle/MS/AL/LA weenie posts to stay)

You can see the banter thread where they called me cheetah and said cheetah/jonger cage match :D

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You want to really know who's going to see some Sci-Fi action with this storm? Try being right on the Great Guana Cay north of Abaco Sunday at 1PM. Now that is a place to be to see Dorian it's most deadliest. Try your best to take pictures a BE SAFE!!!:twister:

 

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I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere.  It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall.  I'm not buying it.

 

This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe.  Any further movement west and north could be interesting.  The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.

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1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere.  It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall.  I'm not buying it.

 

This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe.  Any further movement west and north could be interesting.  The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.

I do agree got to watch it but as of now no big deal

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

What happened was on Wednesday, I made a post saying the best track was a scraper and OTS around 4pm, while pretty much every model was west into Florida bodily, and even the gulf including EC ensemble. The weenie mods didn't like my negativity and deleted the post ( but funny they allowed the cat5 into Miami/Panhandle/MS/AL/LA weenie posts to stay)

You can see the banter thread where they called me cheetah and said cheetah/jonger cage match :D

ARE you cheetah?

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18Z hurricane model HWRF further sw last two runs now, with inner eyewall over Cape Canaveral and then inland west of St. Augustine and west of Jacksonville.  Comes ashore as a weak CAT 2.

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48 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Now watch the storm barrel right through FL into the Gulf ;)

Sounds to me like TWC is putting their chips on the Euro ensembles, with not one of their members showing it hitting FL.  That, despite their warnings that FL is not totally out of the woods.  I wouldn't be surprised to see that cone shifted slightly west at the 11 pm advisory.

 

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