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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If that had any validity or skill I would be Ecstatic 

 

Euro did pop something off the SE coast. Hard recurve would mitigate surf to some degree though. That legacy GFS would probably be a Bill redux from a waves perspective, which would be sweet. 

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Invest 95L now.. 

The most likely is some mess approaches the SE probably to close to DR , Cuba or S Florida to organize and then veers NE OTS as a weak 1007 mb low imo 

would love this to organize earlier and away from island interference and take a more due N track for the swell train

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Look at that path leading right to NE. Given the right circumstances this could be the year for a big one.

Would be better if we had anomalously warm waters NE of us, though, promoting slightly higher pressure and maybe stronger blocking episodes. That is nitpicky..

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There might also be CV activity to follow over the next week ... 

The MJO is weak but circuiting through the right side of the Wheeler ... and as typical with those wave spaces, the 200 mb velocity potential not as negative ... in fact, modestly positive between the west coast of Africa and 55W.

As of the 27th the 200 and 850 mb vector analysis' had modestly hostile/sheer orientation. Today being the 30th...that's a fair amount of time to have changed those metrics.  I'm not sure what those are now, but... SSTs/integral heat content is nearing apex, and given to the MJO and those velocity potentials ...those stress mitigators may be lessening here.  Meanwhile, a decent cyclonic momentum has recently been ejected and presently is wsw of the CV Islands.  It's broad and needs a lot of work ... Saharan air/dust appears for the time being to behave in it's climate zone N of that area.  

Just in the off chance ... I gotta say...with the AA structure/bias to the hemispheric circulation we are observing as a persistence this summer season... that doesn't really probabilistically/intuitively lend to the notion that this is a good season to carry a TC  3,500 K miles west.  For 'cane enthusiasts ... you want more longitudinal flow types...with less N-S-N wave undulations and less blocking at mid and high latitudes - the preponderance of the latter indirectly effects said probabilities, because when there is a lot of that, ...we tend to TUTTs and weakness in ridges.

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2 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

3m

 

It's worth monitoring what the models say about the large-scale circulation ("jet stream") over the eastern U.S. in the next 1-2 weeks (if, for nothing else, its potential steering of any incoming tropical systems lurking out there ;)

New GFS was close but it will change a 100 times between now and then

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20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

New GFS was close but it will change a 100 times between now and then

First time something has shown up in a few weeks, so hopefully something to start tracking over the next 10 days and leave the other folks to talk about Dews in the main thread :)

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8 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Home grown seems to be only threat and a modest one for next 15 days 

To be excepted this time of year. The MDR is a shear fest currently. If we can get something into that Hatteras to Bermuda zone this season it’s game time.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

To be excepted this time of year. The MDR is a shear fest currently. If we can get something into that Hatteras to Bermuda zone this season it’s game time.

Recurve on 6z

gfs_mslpa_atl_43.png

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The CV disturbance has potential, hopefully it runs silent and deep and develops later than sooner...

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14 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

funny how the next run has nothing.. i'm sure it will be a CAT5 on the next one

Exactly. :p

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