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nj2va

2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I know they mean well but seriously 1-8 is not a forecast.  It’s just telling you that anything can happen.  A true forecast is a range of acouple inches like 2-4.  I’m fine with the zones but they need to stick their necks out a little more make a real prediction.

Good thing that wasn't their actual forecast. 

 

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Mostly sleet and only a little snow mixed in.  30/28

 

Ice bomb if this stays like this

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Good thing that wasn't their actual forecast. 

 

If they just got rid of the boom/bust stuff that’s a good map.  

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3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I know they mean well but seriously 1-8 is not a forecast.  It’s just telling you that anything can happen.  A true forecast is a range of acouple inches like 2-4.  I’m fine with the zones but they need to stick their necks out a little more make a real prediction.

They didn't explicitly have an 8 inch range. They use the probability system. This might be an unpopular opinion - but I think a forecaster is good if they communicate to the public well. I don't think a good forecaster necessarily is the one that nails a forecast to a 2 inch range. 

The best forecasters these days are the ones that do not hype - and show the range of possibilities. Yeah - a nailed 2 inch forecast range is great - but some of that is also luck. Banding in this area generally precludes any sort of broad brushed uniform amounts anyway. 

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28 minutes ago, Kingstonian said:

Measured 2.5" at 11:00 in SSW Franconia/Kingstowne, FFX County.  It's a snow/sleet mix right now here.  

I had 2" that i reported at 9:30.  Haven't measured since and cleared my snow measuring area at 11 once it switched to mostly sleet.  2.5" sounds about right tho.

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