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February Banter 2019


George BM
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22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

There were always panic posters...heck I've had my share over the years but lately it's not about panic and more about just being downright depressing. I'm with you it takes the joy out of tracking...that's truly why I'm all about looking out the window vs. believing or relying on models. I see the joy and fun in being able to read them like you or psu and Cape and showme... you guys rock but for me I watch read but in the end just :snowwindow:. Some people aren't able to handle things they have zero control over. If it snows great! If it's an inch great! If it's a foot more great! If it doesn't snow...go outside and play. It's just that easy

Great, now leesburg keeps me out of the joy and fun crowd...and we’re looking at only 3” of snow this weekend? Can this night get any worse?  What if it trends north?  But its been trending south today too? What if its trends so much north and south that it just evaporates?  Does that happen?  

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I think there has been a ji’ization of the forum in general which is not helpful. When it seems like everyone adopts that same persona it has a really negative snowball effect. Ji actually knows his stuff, but so many of the others who are parroting that posting style don’t - it’s a real problem. So Ji trolls on stuff and knows he’s trolling , while others are just generally negative without the knowledge base to back up their negativity. When it is too much of that it’s...sub-optimal.

i drove through a legit lake effect snow squall whiteout today in far northwest PA and it was awesome (and kinda terrifying). Wish more people here had that kind of experience today, would probably help them relax.

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17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Great, now leesburg keeps me out of the joy and fun crowd...and we’re looking at only 3” of snow this weekend? Can this night get any worse?  What if it trends north?  But its been trending south today too? What if its trends so much north and south that it just evaporates?  Does that happen?  

not gonna lie, i laughed out loud to this a little too much:lol:

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I am almost 60 and was in the Gary Gray email group, Wrights Weather, Eastern, Deck Pics site (forgot the site name), and here. The change in attitude is in anything short of HECS or BECS is a major disappointment. The enjoyment of snow has been replaced with disappointment of it is not going snow up to my a hole. I am with Leesburg :snowwindow:

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1 minute ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

I am almost 60 and was in the Gary Gray email group, Wrights Weather, Eastern, Deck Pics site (forgot the site name), and here. The change in attitude is in anything short of HECS or BECS is a major disappointment. The enjoyment of snow has been replaced with disappointment of it is not going snow up to my a hole. I am with Leesburg :snowwindow:

2010 ruined it for so many. Once you hit the pinnacle nothing else can satisfy. Almost like addicts searching for the ultimate high. 

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26 minutes ago, nj2va said:

you won't be laughing when the atmosphere trends so much north and south that the clouds are just pulled apart in front of your eyes, event goes poof, and its 75 on saturday.

I wouldn’t hate 75 on Saturday...I mean snow, yes please snow

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The thing I find most strange is that this has actually been a pretty decent winter for our region.  I am a few inches from an average snowfall year with 4 weeks to go, and so are many folks throughout our sub forum.  Yet to read the board daily you would think we are having a terrible winter.  I get that some folks like the Baltimore crew have fallen short of the rest of the area, but there are always winners and losers nearly every year.  Last the year the Shenandoah Valley continually got the shaft while the snow totals piled up on the eastern shore.

I shudder to think what some posters will be like when we get our typical "bad" winter like, say, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2016-17, 2017-18.  I get why the SNE folks who get 45-90" almost every year are unhappy with being in single digits for the season.  But the mid-Atlantic has little to complain about this year imo.

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18 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The thing I find most strange is that this has actually been a pretty decent winter for our region.  I am a few inches from an average snowfall year with 4 weeks to go, and so are many folks throughout our sub forum.  Yet to read the board daily you would think we are having a terrible winter.  I get that some folks like the Baltimore crew have fallen short of the rest of the area, but there are always winners and losers nearly every year.  Last the year the Shenandoah Valley continually got the shaft while the snow totals piled up on the eastern shore.

I shudder to think what some posters will be like when we get our typical "bad" winter like, say, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2016-17, 2017-18.  I get why the SNE folks who get 45-90" almost every year are unhappy with being in single digits for the season.  But the mid-Atlantic has little to complain about this year imo.

All good points. All the deb's should realize that almost every system that produced snow in our region specifically targeted us. We've actually been pretty fortunate. If the December storm was a hit the perception of this winter would be different. 

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1 hour ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

I am almost 60 and was in the Gary Gray email group, Wrights Weather, Eastern, Deck Pics site (forgot the site name), and here. The change in attitude is in anything short of HECS or BECS is a major disappointment. The enjoyment of snow has been replaced with disappointment of it is not going snow up to my a hole. I am with Leesburg :snowwindow:

Weenietown

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2 hours ago, Ji said:
5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:
Ugh 

Look at how everything went into the toilet from 12z to 0z and people wonder why I am so negative. Eps mean snow went from 10 a few days ago to the default 3-4 lol

The look the next 6 days started degrading 3  days ago and has continued steadily imo since.  The fail scenario I teased maestro with was actually what I expected. 

From range details don’t matter. As the threats all came into medium range the warts showed up. The first wave is weak and not spaced well to amplify.  Without an amped wave 1 wave 2 would be a problem. And the trend towards more ridging and a more hostile thermal profile next week started 3 days ago and without the bombing storm this weekend I didn’t see a mechanism to stop that. 

Ive tried to keep it to myself since some runs still looked good and I didn’t want to deb. Maybe I was just being a worry wart. But now that everything went to total crap and looks like my fail scenario what’s the point. Lol. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The look the next 6 days started degrading 3  days ago and has continued steadily imo since.  The fail scenario I teased maestro with was actually what I expected. 

From range details don’t matter. As the threats all came into medium range the warts showed up. The first wave is weak and not spaced well to amplify.  Without an amped wave 1 wave 2 would be a problem. And the trend towards more ridging and a more hostile thermal profile next week started 3 days ago and without the bombing storm this weekend I didn’t see a mechanism to stop that. 

Ive tried to keep it to myself since some runs still looked good and I didn’t want to deb. Maybe I was just being a worry wart. But now that everything went to total crap and looks like my fail scenario what’s the point. Lol. 

a few days ago...i predicted jokingly(but also was serious deep inside) that we would see a total of 1 inch from all 3 events combined. Now I am thinking that I may have been too optimistic lol

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

a few days ago...i predicted jokingly(but also was serious deep inside) that we would see a total of 1 inch from all 3 events combined. Now I am thinking that I may have been too optimistic lol

It’s a disappointment for sure. This period had major potential. But the details seem to be going all wrong. Still time to recover maybe but I’m not feeling it. I guess now it’s hope for a March bomb. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a disappointment for sure. This period had major potential. But the details seem to be going all wrong. Still time to recover maybe but I’m not feeling it. I guess now it’s hope for a March bomb. 

March '58 or bust! This pattern blows man. I'm gonna be in the 80's today and in the freezer by next week with no snow to show for it :( 

I have seen 16 total flakes this winter

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The look the next 6 days started degrading 3  days ago and has continued steadily imo since.  The fail scenario I teased maestro with was actually what I expected. 

From range details don’t matter. As the threats all came into medium range the warts showed up. The first wave is weak and not spaced well to amplify.  Without an amped wave 1 wave 2 would be a problem. And the trend towards more ridging and a more hostile thermal profile next week started 3 days ago and without the bombing storm this weekend I didn’t see a mechanism to stop that. 

Ive tried to keep it to myself since some runs still looked good and I didn’t want to deb. Maybe I was just being a worry wart. But now that everything went to total crap and looks like my fail scenario what’s the point. Lol. 

I was optimistic for a light event with the initial wave. Still might happen. The other 2 events looked low probability for my yard, but could have(might still) worked out for NW areas with some mix to rain. With relatively weak lows, the bulging SE ridge this week is probably going to rule. If this week doesn't produce, we are looking at 15-20 days of legit winter at best, and no time for nickel and dime stuff. Time to join Ji for the big dog hunt lol.

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The systems coming up over the next five days are weak with "snow showers".  O   K   .  We have a somewhat normal winter but no KU storms.  Still, we've had about three positive busts, a couple of arctic surges, multiple days off for the kiddies and several incidences of sleet.  Anyone complaining about the lack of KU storms needs to be reminded that those events are spotty at best.

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3 minutes ago, winterymix said:

The systems coming up over the next five days are weak with "snow showers".  O   K   .  We have a somewhat normal winter but no KU storms.  Still, we've had about three positive busts, a couple of arctic surges, multiple days off for the kiddies and several incidences of sleet.  Anyone complaining about the lack of KU storms needs to be reminded that those events are spotty at best.

I would actually lean more towards rain showers after Saturday's virga fest.

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9 hours ago, Fozz said:

Maybe I haven't paid enough attention, but I've only noticed a handful of posters who's been consistently whiny and negative. Most seem ok at least from what I've seen. Maybe there are other annoying debs too, but I can't really recall who they are.

I’ve only been on here 5 years, but I don’t think it’s any worse than previous seasons. Maybe I just don’t give a shit. People will be people, they are annoying, full of doubt, and oblivious to others. It’s the same if you walk into Wegman’s.

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