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George BM

February Banter 2019

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Most predictable unpredictable LR winter ever. 

Early Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Mid Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Late Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Ealy Jan - everyone is buzzing about the SSWE and 2 week lag time pointing to Jan 15-20 as the epic pattern rollout. Several new 3 and 4-letter indices are being posted with graphs and multi-color charts that only Galileo can decipher but everyone is told this means fasten your seatbelts a wild winter to remember is coming starting mid Jan. Then, weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2 which is mid Jan. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Mid Jan - epic pattern has been delayed but now has a scapegoat to be blamed and it's name is MJO. weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Late Jan - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

 

I wonder how this story continues? Been an 'epic' novel so far ;)

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Most predictable unpredictable LR winter ever. 

Early Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Mid Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Late Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Ealy Jan - everyone is buzzing about the SSWE and 2 week lag time pointing to Jan 15-20 as the epic pattern rollout. Several new 3 and 4-letter indices are being posted with graphs and multi-color charts that only Galileo can decipher but everyone is told this means fasten your seatbelts a wild winter to remember is coming starting mid Jan. Then, weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2 which is mid Jan. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Mid Jan - epic pattern has been delayed but now has a scapegoat to be blamed and it's name is MJO. weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

Late Jan - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. 

 

I wonder how this story continues? Been an 'epic' novel so far ;)

What's your snow total so far?

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

 

No seriously where are you currently...I'm traveling up and down the coast and its interesting to see for me

In my sig....BN like most of the NE and Mid Atl. Safe travels.

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I actually feel bad for BOS. We can taunt and jeer about how they r spoiled usually but I'm not sure they have recorded more than a couple of inches officially so far......if even that.

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Man the 6z GFS looks like torch and one rainstorm after another.

This year reminds me a lot of 2001-2002. I think that was the year that the pattern everyone kept waiting for, never appeared.

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36 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Snowfall in my yard (through February 1)

2017-   3.1"

2018-   3.4"

2019- 21.1"

I looked for your obs post in the obs thread but didn't see it. What do you have in today?

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46 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I looked for your obs post in the obs thread but didn't see it. What do you have in today?

2.5". How did you do up there ?

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@jonjon

I hope you don't mind a bit of a beer brewing consultation. My friend went with that Everyday IPA, but his teacher didn't want to order the one gallon kits, as it wasn't cost effective. Here is a screenshot of the revised spreadsheet with the list of all ingredients. Following that are the teacher's "instructions" on how to proceed with the recipe. It looks a tad 'greek' to my friend- the specifics of generating the recipe based on maris otter barley. He has the general idea, but has never actually brewed, only watched one demonstration by the instructor using the Grainfather 23L in the lab. Any insights/advice would be appreciated. Thanks.

1927201488_Ipaingredientss.thumb.png.0a0e77ed0c23da6694994862d75dc584.png

His teacher's comments-

You need to ferment at least 10 L a go per batch, and buying as a kit is a very expensive way to do business. Best is to make a standard 23 L batch, then split between 2 small vessels to allow for 2 yeasts in one day of brewing. 

Please formulate a suitable recipe using marris otter, with a small amount of cystal malt scaled to 20L beer after losses. I’ve ordered all the hops in the kit (Columbus, cascade, citra) so have a think about your addition schedule. Work out all the weights, the volume of mash and boil water, and the estimated SG and IBUs and let me know before you start. 

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21 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

2.5". How did you do up there ?

I was shocked to get home from work and measured 4". I'm a little surprised.  Thought you would of had more than 2.5?

I was under that nice green band on radar that basically sat over the m/d line all afternoon. 

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

I was shocked to get home from work and measured 4". I'm a little surprised.  Thought you would of had more than 2.5?

I was under that nice green band on radar that basically sat over the m/d line all afternoon. 

That's nice !  You were in a better spot for this one, I guess.  I melted the snow that I caught in the Cocorahs gauge and it was 0.18" liquid.  So about 14:1 ratios.  Seems legit.  Temp stayed in the teens for the entire event.  Just curious: do you know your elevation there ?

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40 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

That's nice !  You were in a better spot for this one, I guess.  I melted the snow that I caught in the Cocorahs gauge and it was 0.18" liquid.  So about 14:1 ratios.  Seems legit.  Temp stayed in the teens for the entire event.  Just curious: do you know your elevation there ?

Around 770

Ratios were really good. Especially in the afternoon. Big fluffy dendrites for a couple hours .

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We talk about the reasons why we love snow so much. Tracking, watching it fall, the transformation of the landscape. This is my view walking down the steps this morning. This does it for me. Looking outside at a seemingly different world. (ignore that vacuum cleaner there by the table)

loft.jpg.1ef670cb18541a57aa99c8ee08550a02.jpg

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We talk about the reasons why we love snow so much. Tracking, watching it fall, the transformation of the landscape. This is my view walking down the steps this morning. This does it for me. Looking outside at a seemingly different world. (ignore that vacuum cleaner there by the table)

loft.jpg.1ef670cb18541a57aa99c8ee08550a02.jpg

Spectacular 

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Say anything you want man we obviously interpret your style differently...carry on 

I’m trying to figure out what the problem is. Not shoot down your opinion. I want to know what it is that I did last night that bothered you and others. I saw something bad on the gefs. I posted about it with a map to illustrate the problem. I qualified it with saying I don’t buy it and this is just saying what it shows. I said I’m not making any judgments until more info. And I only said it once. So what did you want me to do differently?  I honestly am not sure how I could have pointed out what I did regarding the degradation in the pressure pattern on the 0z gefs in a less negative way. It was a bad thing after all. So I’m honestly asking what the issue was?  Did you think I should have not said anything?  Did I not do a good enough job minimizing it because I tried too not make it a big deal.  I saw something not good on the gefs and I tried to explain it in the least panic inducing but way possible without simply ignoring it.

I might not agree with your point but first I need to know what your point is. Right now I’m not even sure what the issue was. 

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