supernovasky

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About supernovasky

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  1. This is going to kill several times more people than the flu, in a fraction of the time, WHILE we are under intense stay at home orders. Insane to imagine what this thing could do if allowed to run completely rampant.
  2. I think we are being mired in the details. Ultimately, we are arguing over adding a new cause of death as bad as cancer this year or several times worse. Its bad no matter what. It could have been better, but here we are and we will be here a long time.
  3. “Mankind’s greatest failure is it’s inability to understand the exponential function.” - Prof Albert Bartlett Every country, ours included, thought it couldn’t get that bad. Well almost every country. Singapore, South Korea, Japan all were on top of their stuff and stockpiled.
  4. We’ll see. As of right now we are easily heading towards a few hundred thousand deaths, loss of icu capacity, and the highest per capita infection of any country if trends continue. I mean... we aren’t all shut down for nothing, and we’re going to be this way for a long time while many people die.
  5. I’m not so sure of that. Let’s hope we don’t but we are still running behind Europe. They hit their vent capacities and their rates shot up. Some states are already seeing pretty high mortality rates, including my home state of Louisiana.
  6. So the US is about to run out of drugs required to run ventilators. https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients
  7. Mortality rates are kind of useless to speculate over at this point. This is not a rate problem but a capacity problem. Even a novel flu with a mortality rate of .1% can strain the health care system. A coronavirus with no immunity and a mortality rate of 0.6-0.7% (true, infection based) is catastrophic. On top of that, once the medical system is adequately wrecked, the mortality rate shoots up. When ventilators no longer are available, more people die. Right now on a daily basis, COVID is the 3rd largest killer. In the next few days on a daily basis, it will be the largest, surpassing heart disease in this country: https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-no-3-cause-death-us-after-heart-disease-cancer-1495506 On top of all of this is the chemotherapy being delayed, the drug supply shortages, the less and less ICU capacity to handle strokes and heart attacks, etc. Quibbling over death rates Being 0.7 or 3.4 in a pandemic is next to useless - when all is said and done we will be able to look back and calculate it properly.
  8. US. Going to be the deadliest day by far. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
  9. 1315 deaths and climbing today. It's going to be bad.
  10. We'll be more prepared next time, I truly believe that. Testing will be there enough to contact trace properly.
  11. The biggest barrier to a vaccine is safety. If safety "red tape" gets cut, I'm not taking the vaccine. Vaccines are safe because they go through massive clinical trials. A rushed vaccine can absolutely have negative consequences, and has had negative consequences in the past with other vaccines that didn't go through extensive testing. That + mass production is definitely the barrier to it getting in in under a year.
  12. I don't doubt for a second we'll surpass all of those.
  13. Just to add, what it does NOT mean is that we are even close to "beating this", rather we are heading towards achieving a pause in the explosive growth phase and stabilizing our cases/day.
  14. There's a lot to be hopeful with this chart. Log charts allow you to see if exponential growth is occurring. The exponential phase has decelerated tremendously. That's an absolute result of measures that have been taken in the last few weeks, and expected. However, it doesn't mean that growth isn't occurring. Rather, that growth isn't as fast, percentage wise, as it was earlier in this disease. It's a good thing. If the curve flattens the way it looks above, it's going to take us a while to get to 1,000,000 cases.
  15. Because we all need some good COVID news, it appears the curve is actually flattening on a log chart over the last 6 days nationwide. This bodes well and shows that staying at home works.