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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter

There will probably be some snow/ mix for the N and W areas, but the general set up for the events this week isn't great, esp for the coastal plain. Too much SE ridge. I'll take my rain and wait for the epic period beginning March 1.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter

Every model looks terrible moving forward. 

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1 hour ago, S A Martinez said:

How does Chuck have an account here? Long time lurker and that guy is a troll if I’ve ever seen one. I could say Me and my wife are expecting and he would say that late February is setting our unborn son up for failure due to his extrapolation of the h5 maps. Every single positive post is met with his negative. He doesn’t post otherwise. That is the definition of a troll.

 

While I'm right there with you it unfortunately looks like he is on-point this time. Honestly even tho he has generally just posted negative one sentence posts about the pattern the entire season cant really say they havent verified about 80% of the time. 

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2 hours ago, S A Martinez said:

Hoffman, Chill, and many others contribute to this thread in a great way. There is much to be learned from you guys. I’m sure many of us appreciate your guys’s efforts. I just wish that idiots opinion would be at least put in banter. Guys in this sub know way more than him and while I get it’s an open forum he offers nothing. He is the guy that misses the layup and blames the guy that passed him the ball 

Thanks for your positive contributions to the LR weather thread.

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49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thanks for your positive contributions to the LR weather thread.

He has made 2 posts. Both to trash Chuck. Not really off to a great start.

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2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

A couple days ago, @Bob Chill was saying we may go 1 for 3 or 2 for 3 on the upcoming events. It looks like we might go 0 for 3 now...

He would still be in Deb mode if not for that 12"+ his yard lucked into.

Sorry Bob.

:hurrbear:

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He would still be in Deb mode if not for that 12"+ his yard lucked into.

Sorry Bob.

:hurrbear:

Amazing how poorly some climo sites North of him are doing. 

Might be the worse , ( IF things stay the same snowfall wise ie, not stellar )  for a Nino , even though here we know this as a Nino want to be .  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not quite as good a look as the GEFS, but the EPS is coming around with the pattern progression. March gonna save us.

eps_z500a_nh_61.thumb.png.9405cc143df24cf6e6e5b3decdd8a8a6.png

You are right about the NAO .   And I think it  is related to a degree to the QBO.  But was going say, never do you see it Build SW into the Davis Straights.  whatever effect we had were from what HM< called blips and or wave breaking

 

 

 

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Something to ponder and I guess @psuhoffman ponders this always looking for a lack of effect from the Nino.  I know yesterday Isotherm brought severals ideas and reasons up as to why things are not working together.  Nino / forcing . etc. 

The post  below is an interestring one,  as it looks upon the current - SOI.  Courtesy 33andrain 

 

IMG_6374.GIF

The highest AAM anomalies are actually on my side of the equator. And I think we can bring this down to what is happening with the current MJO wave caused strong WWB in the Pacific.

IMG_6375.PNG

Most of the recent WWB-associated activity has been occurring within the Southern Hemisphere. This explains the very negative SOI anomalies in the Pacific (because Darwin and Tahiti are both in the SH).

 

The interesting thing is CFS notes this WWB continuing for a while, a whole month long. This would have continued impacts on extratropical weather down the pipeline. The activity heading out towards the Baja California, also indicates to me, the signs of a strengthening STJ, from the region up to the Eastern CONUS.

 

It has been interesting not to see this activity, stir up major positive frictional torque activity, but perhaps it is the location, rather than the strength that prompts the +FT. I have some thoughts that are best for another time, but hopefully we see some big responses to quash negative AAM anomalies at 40N. The best way to do this starts with a +FT. Interesting times.

 

- Zac :) 

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Don't kill the messengers...enjoy reading the expertise and experiencing the weather passion of this forum.  Sometimes as has been stated before, a little luck is needed.  But we should not put out an "It's OVER, GROVER WATCH" based on one set of overnight runs.  

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4 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro looks terrible for next week again. Probably the worst overall euro run of the winter

But 384 is rocking! LOL.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, if there is any consolation, the Atari-FV3 is a hit.

Seems like it often over models northeastern confluence and wintry weather east of low pressure systems. Not sure it’s look makes sense given the players on the field. This is really what’s taking over for the GFS soon? We’re in trouble. 

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4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Seems like it often over models northeastern confluence and wintry weather east of low pressure systems. Not sure it’s look makes sense given the players on the field. This is really what’s taking over for the GFS soon? We’re in trouble. 

It gives Southern VA/Northern NC  2 feet of snow.  I'm pretty sure it's going to be right.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It gives Southern VA/Northern NC  2 feet of snow.  I'm pretty sure it's going to be right.

I think it includes Sleet

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24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, if there is any consolation, the Atari-FV3 is a hit.

That is your official American model in a month!!!  RESPECT

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JB in his premium video on Weather Bell admits the next two weeks look like a disaster and he was wrong......no crescendo of cold in sight.  Interesting part about it is that no one can explain why.  If the MJO has been the driver this winter, perhaps the models will respond in a week or so to the move into Phase 8 and perhaps 1......

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is your official American model in a month!!!  RESPECT

Does the old GFS just go away entirely when that happens? Sometimes it has been nice to have as a data point with its known biases. 

I've seen comments to the effect that the FV3 has a bias towards keeping heights lower than they should be, which can make it tend to favor snow. Last thing we need for the MA is more fantasy digital snow in the med/long range. 

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57 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, if there is any consolation, the Atari-FV3 is a hit.

To paraphrase Old Man Parker: that thing would show a snowstorm in the middle of summer, on the Equator.

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54 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

JB in his premium video on Weather Bell admits the next two weeks look like a disaster and he was wrong......no crescendo of cold in sight.  Interesting part about it is that no one can explain why.  If the MJO has been the driver this winter, perhaps the models will respond in a week or so to the move into Phase 8 and perhaps 1......

And that has been the most frustrating part of this winter up to this point: everybody is baffled and it absolutely sucks. How can we have even reasonable confidence in LR forecasting (even 2 weeks or sooner) going forward? Been absolutely useless this year--I want some answers (even if they come later after the season is over)

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24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And that has been the most frustrating part of this winter up to this point: everybody is baffled and it absolutely sucks. How we have confidence in LR forecasting (even 2 weeks or sooner) going forward? Been absolutely useless this year--I want some answers (even if they come later after the season is over)

Yeah, it would be interesting to see why the LR guidance consistently got it wrong this year.

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