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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Especially with increasing lifespans.  That generation can expect to live to 90.  Puts them solidly into the 22rd century.   Feeling good for them, actually.  I dont think iad/dca/bwi has ever suffered 110 below normal years in a row.

We’re due!

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50 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

There is no snow drought.  Eastern areas were above climo the last 2 years, and southern areas are above this year.  The snow drought is local.  Bad luck.  Weather is not looking to even anything up.  We'll likely suffer through several Nina's before we see another nino, especially a modoki.  Check our nina climo snow.

That's not necessarily true either...Just look at this decade. We basically went mod nino, nina, nina, neutral, neutral, super nino, nina, nina, weak modoki. And a two-year enso event is not off of the table either! We are due for a mod Nino, imo!

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is one case where the weeklies are probably useful, and likely deadly accurate.

The cfs flipped today. The last 3 runs are just like that weeklies look.  SE ridge never goes away  

56F02586-B51C-40A1-B76B-E97D24F3ABDD.thumb.png.a3f737cba7d9eb1df323eeb4ff6e147a.png

kidding aside I really think there is more to the se ridge than the pac.  I think it’s a cause more than an effect in this pattern.  Even once the pacific gets right and pushes the trough out it’s just forced up and over the ridge.  The se ridge isn’t being caused by the western trough.  That’s making it worse yea but I startee suspecting and now I’m convinced there is another factor here that I’m missing that’s causing that feature to persist regardless of the look out west.  

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

when the NAO again failed

How many -NAO fails does that make this year?  Four, five?  Man I am going to try very hard to never give two craps about any -NAO being modeled more than a few days away.

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43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's not necessarily true either...Just look at this decade. We basically went mod nino, nina, nina, neutral, neutral, super nino, nina, nina, weak modoki. And a two-year enso event is not off of the table either! We are due for a mod Nino, imo!

Did we ever actually make it to official El Nino status?

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3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

1966 and 1973 fit as analogs in that the were El Nino's with more -PNA February. 

March: 

j2-HAz-XA3-Cw.png
 

Lol that is an awful match. Pna is the only similarity. 

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The cfs flipped today. The last 3 runs are just like that weeklies look.  SE ridge never goes away  

56F02586-B51C-40A1-B76B-E97D24F3ABDD.thumb.png.a3f737cba7d9eb1df323eeb4ff6e147a.png

kidding aside I really think there is more to the se ridge than the pac.  I think it’s a cause more than an effect in this pattern.  Even once the pacific gets right and pushes the trough out it’s just forced up and over the ridge.  The se ridge isn’t being caused by the western trough.  That’s making it worse yea but I startee suspecting and now I’m convinced there is another factor here that I’m missing that’s causing that feature to persist regardless of the look out west.  

 

I think it’s a combo of the Pacific and North Atlantic. The PAC jet has been directed up towards the pole all winter. It has allowed the PAC jet to transport right along into the CONUS. Not good.

At the same time, the Atlantic wave break(50/50low) has been pushed along by the incoming PAC jet. Thus, no blocking in this region. So storms have mostly gone to cut. 

I believe the PAC is driving this overall winter pattern. Why, I don’t know. Here is a representation of the problem:

 

EB0C0C8B-55D1-4071-ABEC-F0D8CF9CBED8.jpeg

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I find BobChill's silence ominous.  I fear he may be working an epic melt rant that will make the paint melt off of my walls just from reading it.

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9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I find BobChill's silence ominous.  I fear he may be working an epic melt rant that will make the paint melt off of my walls just from reading it.

hopefully he is hugging the heck out of the icon

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43 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I find BobChill's silence ominous.  I fear he may be working an epic melt rant that will make the paint melt off of my walls just from reading it.

I hear ya........  will be EPIC .... !   !    

Yeah like Machine Gun Kelly to MM , Bob going be ominous and on point , look MF er  Winter 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The cfs flipped today. The last 3 runs are just like that weeklies look.  SE ridge never goes away  

Hey psu have you lost faith in weather modeling in general, I have .

The models are like decaying cow guts.  Rotten and smelly with a stench of failure and a hint of , SUCKERS   #$%#&*&(&^!!!

I dont want to hear in December about the WEAKLIES I believe it when I can make a snowball ........  

Maybe it is climate change ..... No I didn't. LOL 

 

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Just now, frd said:

Hey psu have you lost faith in weather modeling in general, I have .

The models are like decaying cow guts.  Rotten and smelly with a stench of failure and a hint of , SUCKERS   #$%#&*&(&^!!!

I dont want to hear in December about the WEAKLIES I believe it when I can make a snowball ........  

Maybe it is climate change ..... No I didn't. LOL 

 

Yeah I’m not falling for the weeklies again next year. 

(Remind me that next year when I sign onto a Week 4 -NAO)

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8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah I’m not falling for the weeklies again next year. 

(Remind me that next year when I sign onto a Week 4 -NAO)

I just put on Post it up on my wall with your name on it , I will remind in December .  ha ha 

That goes for every damn stink'in model, too !  Ukmet, CFS, JAMSTEC, you name it.  F minus   to all !  

I have to calm down, back to listening to Machine Gun Kelly :gun_bandana:

:gun_bandana:

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

I just put on Post it up on my wall with your name on it , I will remind in December .  ha ha 

That goes for every damn stink'in model, too !  Ukmet, CFS, JAMSTEC, you name it.  F minus   to all !  

I have to calm down, back to listening to Machine Gun Kelly :gun_bandana:

:gun_bandana:

When life gets tough, just look to the FV3 which will give us feet upon feet of digital snow.

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31 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This winter really was fine. There have been way, way worse winters. Plus, we still have March and that seems to be deep winter around these parts for some reason.

Yeah, in reality my total so far is almost double my last two years combined so its certainly not as big a disaster as some years.  I think its the hype going into this winter + the consistently advertised epic looks on weeklies/seasonal and even ensembles (at times) which has led to the disappointment in general.  While we can certainly see more snow and can ‘luck’ into a storm, I’m over tracking anything in the LR.  It seems pointless this season.

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I said this in the weekend storm thread, but think it is just as appropriate  here. 

The south move (don't want to use the word "trend" ) does nothing for my area. Will still be rain. I would rather this be north and give you guys snow, and me much less rain! I hate rain and I am so tired of wiping my pooches feet and cleaning floors!! I would be even happy with brutal cold and dry right now. At least my mud would be "FROZEN"!! 

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Euro is a long duration snow to ice storm. Maybe icon wasnt off its rocker. It's always sniffing stuff out. The culprit is a much flatter western trough so the se ridge is also flatter. Also a better look in 50 50 region. A dramatic difference from 12z . I mentioned that a euro bias seems like it gets too deep with sw trough sometimes. Lets hope it sticks. Also euro has a nice nao at d10 lol

 

 

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Looking over the EPS and the GEFS and it is actually a pretty good look in the extended. (Where have we heard that before? :arrowhead:) Actually might be some signals showing up roughly day 13-15 for a decent storm as well (And Ji notice I didn't say Snowstorm? Just storm? So it could be rain or snow if there is a storm?). And it is only 2 WEEKS AWAY. :lol:

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